KPITSnow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Wow. Very detailed discussion. Remember the 2 sentence discussion we used to get years ago? Yeah. There would be a major system a day or two away and it would be summed up as "we could have a variety of precipitation types, but it will be a major storm!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 That damn warm air aloft can be stubborn. As long as there are some snowflakes mixing in, I guess i can stomach it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 At first glance, the 00Z GFS looks A LOT juicier than the 12Z with similar temps. Perhaps similar or slightly drier than 18Z but trying to use the old rule of comparing on-hour runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This could possibly be a surprise storm. All the models are trending in our favor and the Euro just stays with its prediction. Lets see what the 00z brings. Honestly I cant deal with staring at a radar and pushing the rain/snow line closer again with my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 At first glance, the 00Z GFS looks A LOT juicier than the 12Z with similar temps. Perhaps similar or slightly drier than 18Z but trying to use the old rule of comparing on-hour runs. Yep. 00z GFS gives much of SW PA 0.75-1" liquid equivalent from 18z Fri to 06z Sat, which is a nice moistening from the 12z run. 00z GFS skew-T's are slightly cooler than those from the 12z run, but still show a sleet profile, albeit a very weak one imo, over downtown Pittsburgh at 21z. Perhaps this is indicative of a slightly earlier changeover to snow in the late afternoon/early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This could possibly be a surprise storm. All the models are trending in our favor and the Euro just stays with its prediction. Lets see what the 00z brings. Honestly I cant deal with staring at a radar and pushing the rain/snow line closer again with my mind. 0z - GFS - foot I know thats incredibly unlikely for a number of reasons....and some of that will fall as sleet or harmlessly melt on the warm ground. However, its almost a now-cast time and we are still getting that kind of model forecast. You would have to think we are going to get at least a somewhat significant event, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I would think so, but local weathermen disagree. That little Jeff Verzyla pisses me off, thats why I hope his forecast for winter busts bad. I digress, Gonna be a fun day waiting for the changeover. Anyway this is my last post tonight. Lets see what happens tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Watching this dry slot is going to be painful.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 thats gonna all shift east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Watching this dry slot is going to be painful.. What do you mean? This was supposed to happen...a lull in precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 thats gonna all shift east... According to the models we will have no trouble with Precip. The heaviest precip will move over us later today. The question will be the precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Well here we go guys. Lets hope this doesnt turn out like the last storm and the rain/snow line wouldnt budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 my call is 1.6" here in bethel park's screwzone....hahah...naw I bet we see 2-4 here....that looks like an impressive swath or precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 What do you mean? This was supposed to happen...a lull in precip. I know that is going to shift east, but just how far east.... Just watching it hoping that we are in the right spot is going to be the painful part. I see the early morning short range snow map from the CPa thread and hopefully that area of heaviest snow verifies for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 thats gonna all shift east... Yep...on top of that, per that radar, it appears the rain/snow line is already nearly on top if us. I feel this afternoon is going to be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 More snow or ice you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I know that is going to shift east, but just how far east.... Just watching it hoping that we are in the right spot is going to be the painful part. I see the early morning short range snow map from the CPa thread and hopefully that area of heaviest snow verifies for our area. It's going to shift right over us. Every model shows it. We were supposed to have a lull in the precip right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Things are looking good. Short range models hedging colder with each run it seems. I feel pretty confident this will be more about can we get the sleet to change to snow, rather than worrying about plain rain holding on to long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I just can't believe all of these maps giving us all of this qpf and no wsw's....advisory might get bumped up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I just can't believe all of these maps giving us all of this qpf and no wsw's....advisory might get bumped up... Don't know how reliable these short term models are but continue to up the totals even for the BP screw zone... 861 x 826 (72.85K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I just can't believe all of these maps giving us all of this qpf and no wsw's....advisory might get bumped up... Even more amazing is that models are showing 8 inches in areas that have no advisories even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Good luck today everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I looked at the HRR precip model and it shows us as getting moderate to heavy precip from around 1:00 pm to 11:00 pm. I think that will make a difference in the totals for us. Could be as low as 2 inches if you get more sleet and it could be as much as 6 inches if you get all snow and most people somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NWS CTP upgraded their NW counties to a warning. But, 12z GFS is drier and only gives those areas 0.25-0.50" liquid equivalent. This shifting is probably causing PBZ to be more cautious with their advisories/warnings. 00z Euro 700 hPa frontogenesis suggests best precip rates should be over the PIT-AOO-UNV area late this afternoon/evening. It may be that the northern (I-80 and north) counties, while colder, have noticeably less precip. to work with. Jackpot snow totals may end up over the Beaver-Butler-Armstrong Co. area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Finally got under the advisory.URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA1134 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGIONTODAY...PAZ031-075-076-WVZ004-070045-/O.EXA.KPBZ.WW.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-131207T0500Z/GREENE-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-MARSHALL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESBURG...UNIONTOWN...CHAMPION...OHIOPYLE...MOUNDSVILLE1134 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECTUNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.* SNOW/ICE BEGINNING...SNOW AND SLEET BEGINNING LATE THISAFTERNOON.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW/ICE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON ANDEVENING.* SNOW/ICE ENDING...TONIGHT.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW...SLEET ANDICE-COVERED ROADS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZINGRAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVINGAND REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGHFACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NWS just upgraded most of the Pittsburgh area to 4-6 inches. It looks like Westmoreland and Fayette are 2-4 inches. /O.CON.KPBZ.WW.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-131207T0500Z/TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-WASHINGTON-HANCOCK-BROOKE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...CARROLLTON...SALEM...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...NEW CASTLE...BUTLER...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...WASHINGTON...WEIRTON...BETHANY1134 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ESTTONIGHT...* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.* SNOW/ICE BEGINNING...THIS AFTERNOON.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW/ICE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.* SNOW/ICE ENDING...TONIGHT.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW...SLEET ANDICE-COVERED ROADS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NWS CTP upgraded their NW counties to a warning. But, 12z GFS is drier and only gives those areas 0.25-0.50" liquid equivalent. This shifting is probably causing PBZ to be more cautious with their advisories/warnings. 00z Euro 700 hPa frontogenesis suggests best precip rates should be over the PIT-AOO-UNV area late this afternoon/evening. It may be that the northern (I-80 and north) counties, while colder, have noticeably less precip. to work with. Jackpot snow totals may end up over the Beaver-Butler-Armstrong Co. area.Solid call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I saw that someone said SW PA could see some thundersnow. Is there any chance of this happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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