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Pittsburgh/Western Pa Weather


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This could possibly be a surprise storm. All the models are trending in our favor and the Euro just stays with its prediction. Lets see what the 00z brings. Honestly I cant deal with staring at a radar and pushing the rain/snow line closer again with my mind.

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At first glance, the 00Z GFS looks A LOT juicier than the 12Z with similar temps.

 

Perhaps similar or slightly drier than 18Z but trying to use the old rule of comparing on-hour runs.

Yep.  00z GFS gives much of SW PA 0.75-1" liquid equivalent from 18z Fri to 06z Sat, which is a nice moistening from the 12z run.  00z GFS skew-T's are slightly cooler than those from the 12z run, but still show a sleet profile, albeit a very weak one imo, over downtown Pittsburgh at 21z.  Perhaps this is indicative of a slightly earlier changeover to snow in the late afternoon/early evening.

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This could possibly be a surprise storm. All the models are trending in our favor and the Euro just stays with its prediction. Lets see what the 00z brings. Honestly I cant deal with staring at a radar and pushing the rain/snow line closer again with my mind.

0z - GFS - foot

I know thats incredibly unlikely for a number of reasons....and some of that will fall as sleet or harmlessly melt on the warm ground. However, its almost a now-cast time and we are still getting that kind of model forecast. You would have to think we are going to get at least a somewhat significant event, right?

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I would think so, but local weathermen disagree. That little Jeff Verzyla pisses me off, thats why I hope his forecast for winter busts bad. I digress, Gonna be a fun day waiting for the changeover. Anyway this is my last post tonight. Lets see what happens tomorrow.

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What do you mean? This was supposed to happen...a lull in precip.

I know that is going to shift east, but just how far east....  Just watching it hoping that we are in the right spot is going to be the painful part.  I see the early morning short range snow map from the CPa thread and hopefully that area of heaviest snow verifies for our area.

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I know that is going to shift east, but just how far east.... Just watching it hoping that we are in the right spot is going to be the painful part. I see the early morning short range snow map from the CPa thread and hopefully that area of heaviest snow verifies for our area.

It's going to shift right over us. Every model shows it. We were supposed to have a lull in the precip right now.

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I looked at the HRR precip model and it shows us as getting moderate to heavy precip from around 1:00 pm to 11:00 pm. I think that will make a difference in the totals for us. Could be as low as 2 inches if you get more sleet and it could be as much as 6 inches if you get all snow and most people somewhere in between. 

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NWS CTP upgraded their NW counties to a warning.  But, 12z GFS is drier and only gives those areas 0.25-0.50" liquid equivalent. This shifting is probably causing PBZ to be more cautious with their advisories/warnings.  00z Euro 700 hPa frontogenesis suggests best precip rates should be over the PIT-AOO-UNV area late this afternoon/evening.  It may be that the northern (I-80 and north) counties, while colder, have noticeably less precip. to work with.  Jackpot snow totals may end up over the Beaver-Butler-Armstrong Co. area.

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Finally got under the advisory.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1134 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION
TODAY...

PAZ031-075-076-WVZ004-070045-
/O.EXA.KPBZ.WW.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-131207T0500Z/
GREENE-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-MARSHALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESBURG...UNIONTOWN...CHAMPION...
OHIOPYLE...MOUNDSVILLE
1134 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* SNOW/ICE BEGINNING...SNOW AND SLEET BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW/ICE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

* SNOW/ICE ENDING...TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW...SLEET AND
ICE-COVERED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING
RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING
AND REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

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NWS just upgraded most of the Pittsburgh area to 4-6 inches.

It looks like Westmoreland and Fayette are 2-4 inches.

 

/O.CON.KPBZ.WW.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-131207T0500Z/
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-WASHINGTON-HANCOCK-BROOKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...CARROLLTON...SALEM...
COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...
ST. CLAIRSVILLE...NEW CASTLE...BUTLER...BEAVER...
PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...WASHINGTON...WEIRTON...
BETHANY
1134 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.

* SNOW/ICE BEGINNING...THIS AFTERNOON.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW/ICE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* SNOW/ICE ENDING...TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW...SLEET AND
ICE-COVERED ROADS.

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NWS CTP upgraded their NW counties to a warning. But, 12z GFS is drier and only gives those areas 0.25-0.50" liquid equivalent. This shifting is probably causing PBZ to be more cautious with their advisories/warnings. 00z Euro 700 hPa frontogenesis suggests best precip rates should be over the PIT-AOO-UNV area late this afternoon/evening. It may be that the northern (I-80 and north) counties, while colder, have noticeably less precip. to work with. Jackpot snow totals may end up over the Beaver-Butler-Armstrong Co. area.

Solid call.
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