Pittsburgh/Western Pa Weather

[north pgh]

Over my lifetime I have seen my share of these events and even the NWS doesn't know for sure. 

It will be all about nowcasting tomorrow at this time. It could sleet all afternoon and forecast will keep us at one inch or less or it could turn to snow at this time and we end up with snow advisories. The forecast may change hour to hour and one area could be a mix and just miles to the west will be heavy snow.

????????

Regardless, I do not have to go out in it tomorrow so I will be watching a wintry scene from my home office.

[Rdd9108]

Last week everyone cancelled plans because we were supposed to get 4-8 inches. We maybe got 4 inches morning through early afternoon, if that. This time this could be a case where its snowing early and we receive some decent snow. We will see what the Euro shows, its been pretty consistent, just need some colder air faster.

[Rdd9108]

Kdka 2-4 wpxi 1-2 wtae 2-3. Wtae said possible 4-5 if this changes faster.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

GFS even more bullish on snow than previous runs ending with just over 9 inches with .3 of zr before hand.

StnID: kpit    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%============================================================================================================================131205/1500Z   3  20012KT  57.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04    0|  0|100131205/1800Z   6  21012KT  57.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.206    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24    0|  0|100131205/2100Z   9  28009KT  56.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32    0|  0|100131206/0000Z  12  33013KT  43.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---131206/0300Z  15  35007KT  38.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.157    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49    0|  0|100131206/0600Z  18  36009KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.343    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.84    0|  0|100131206/0900Z  21  34007KT  33.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.99    0|  0|100131206/1200Z  24  34007KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.08    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---131206/1500Z  27  36007KT  30.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.20|| 0.191    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.20|| 1.27    0|  0|100131206/1800Z  30  01009KT  31.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.103    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.31|| 1.38    0|  0|100131206/2100Z  33  35008KT  29.6F  SNOW   16:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.238   16:1|  3.8|| 0.00|| 0.31|| 1.62  100|  0|  0131207/0000Z  36  02008KT  27.6F  SNOW   18:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.206   17:1|  7.5|| 0.00|| 0.31|| 1.82  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---131207/0300Z  39  34006KT  26.3F  SNOW    7:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.170   14:1|  8.7|| 0.00|| 0.31|| 1.99  100|  0|  0131207/0600Z  42  34006KT  25.6F  SNOW    8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047   14:1|  9.1|| 0.00|| 0.31|| 2.04  100|  0|  0131207/0900Z  45  31007KT  24.7F  SNOW   10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020   14:1|  9.3|| 0.00|| 0.31|| 2.06  100|  0|  0131207/1200Z  48  31007KT  24.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   14:1|  9.3|| 0.00|| 0.31|| 2.06    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Over my lifetime I have seen my share of these events and even the NWS doesn't know for sure. 

It will be all about nowcasting tomorrow at this time. It could sleet all afternoon and forecast will keep us at one inch or less or it could turn to snow at this time and we end up with snow advisories. The forecast may change hour to hour and one area could be a mix and just miles to the west will be heavy snow.

????????

Regardless, I do not have to go out in it tomorrow so I will be watching a wintry scene from my home office.

Yeah, I'll be curious how my drive home tomorrow ends up. Its possible it could be raining in Greensburg but by the time I get home about 25 miles to the North it may be snow or something. Should be interesting. Of course I hope it turns to snow faster so we don't see much zr.

[Burghblizz]

Over my lifetime I have seen my share of these events and even the NWS doesn't know for sure.

It will be all about nowcasting tomorrow at this time. It could sleet all afternoon and forecast will keep us at one inch or less or it could turn to snow at this time and we end up with snow advisories. The forecast may change hour to hour and one area could be a mix and just miles to the west will be heavy snow.

????????

Regardless, I do not have to go out in it tomorrow so I will be watching a wintry scene from my home office.

I think you would see headlines if it werent for the last storm. Not only is there uncertainty, but its the type of storm where conditions will vary a lot as elevation and latitude/longitude changes

Plus its annoying as hell when people say that the media/weather outlets make up the hype. So i think the calls stay conservative unless its looking real good, real close to show time

[RitualOfTheTrout]

I think you would see headlines if it werent for the last storm. Not only is there uncertainty, but its the type of storm where conditions will vary a lot as elevation and latitude/longitude changes

Plus its annoying as hell when people say that the media/weather outlets make up the hype. So i think the calls stay conservative unless its looking real good, real close to show time

 I think the timing of the last storm so close to Thanksgiving Holiday Travel time also sparked them to issue advisories and warnings sooner than they might have otherwise just to get the information out to the public. Had the storm verified it would have been a mess for travelers.

[north pgh]

I think you would see headlines if it werent for the last storm. Not only is there uncertainty, but its the type of storm where conditions will vary a lot as elevation and latitude/longitude changes

Plus its annoying as hell when people say that the media/weather outlets make up the hype. So i think the calls stay conservative unless its looking real good, real close to show time

Your'e right. The local news outlets love leading with weather and storm team coverage. I think they took a lot of heat from people for overhyping day 2 of last weeks storm and don't want to look bad. However they will be all over it when we get that changeover tomorrow.

[Rdd9108]

So now that I know the Weatherbell euro snow maps are not accurate, how do the wunderground compare. I just saw this posted.

[KPITSnow]

This is going to be so close. Every model run shows the freezing line straddling us. I do like the fact that the gfs and euro seem to be in agreement.

[north pgh]

I assume we will see a WWA with next update?

[KPITSnow]

I assume we will see a WWA with next update?

You would think. We are likely to see advisory level snow or ice at the very least...every model is showing that.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

I assume we will see a WWA with next update?

Yeah, that seems a fair bet. Maybe this can be one of those surprise events in that we have an advisory but get warning critera snows.... hey one can hope right!?

[Mailman]

OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069-PAZ014>016-020-WVZ001-060515-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0030.131206T1500Z-131207T0500Z/
HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-
BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-HANCOCK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...
CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...BUTLER...
CLARION...BROOKVILLE...BEAVER...WEIRTON
401 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS..TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES...HIGHEST NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH.

* SNOW/SLEET BEGINNING...MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET WILL BEGIN LATE
TONIGHT.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW/SLEET...FRIDAY EVENING.

* SNOW ENDING...FRIDAY NIGHT.

* ICE...FREEZING RAIN WILL MIX WITH SLEET LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW...SLEET AND
ICE-COVERED ROADS.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING
RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING AND
REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK
PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

[NewCastleWX]

Well, I'll be driving in it all day. Hoping it stays all snow!

[Thunderhead]

Hey guys, happy meteorological winter  !

 

WRT the wintry precip. Fri-Fri night, the system has some good dynamics going for it.  12z GFS and Euro suggest to me that Pittsburgh has sleet through 21z Friday...possibly moderate-heavy at times after 18z.  Sleet should change to snow some time between 21z Fri and 00z Sat.  Both models suggest that 1" snow/hour rates are possible, especially before 00z Sat.  If the NWS doesn't issue an advisory for Allegheny Co., I worry that PennDOT won't be ready to treat the roads tomorrow evening and the evening rush hour could be a mess.

[Rdd9108]

Honestly 2-4 inches and possible 1 inch hour rates would work for me. Too bad all of this QPF wasn't snow or we would be getting crushed.

[Mailman]

[CoraopolisWx]

Nice input from everyone so far, it's like we're in mid winter form already.

I noticed earlier that the models try to buckle the front a bit in a couple frames.

Hopefully this isn't a low trying to organize, before the cold air fully arrives.

None the less, it seems like a low end advisory event, is the safe bet for now.

[KPITSnow]

This kind of reminds me of a storm in feb 2011. We started as rain, but changed to snow much quicker than anticipated.. The rush hour that night was a disaster and we had a period of inch per hour rates. Ended up with about 8 inches I believe.

[north pgh]

Just took out the dog, winds gusting out of the Northwest. You can tell the cold front came through as you can feel the cold. My temp has dropped to 47.

[meatwad]

Front just went through. Getting colder now.

[north pgh]

Front just went through. Getting colder now.

Same time post. 

[meatwad]

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

822 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO

FRIDAY NIGHT...

PAZ021-022-029-WVZ002-060930-

/O.EXB.KPBZ.WW.Y.0030.131206T1200Z-131207T0500Z/

ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-WASHINGTON-BROOKE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...

WASHINGTON...BETHANY

822 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT

EST FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS

IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A LOCAL TRACE.

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES...HIGHEST NORTH OF

PITTSBURGH.

* SNOW/SLEET BEGINNING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND SLOWLY CHANGE TO

SLEET BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW/SLEET...LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. SLEET WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FALLS.

* SNOW ENDING...FRIDAY NIGHT.

* ICE...FREEZING RAIN WILL LOCALLY MIX WITH SLEET LATE FRIDAY

AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW...SLEET AND

ICE-COVERED ROADS.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO

SNOW...SLEET AND ICE COVERED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING

RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING

AND REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH

FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

$$

 

[KPITSnow]

Nam looks way colder. Has the potential to really bomb on us.

[CoraopolisWx]

Went back to the 11/11-11/12 event hourly conditions for some reference.

 

That featured a quick drop in temps, which allowed mostly snow to fall.

 

This storm is forecasted to have more of a slow bleed of cold air, especially at the mid levels.

It's early still, so we'll see.

[CoraopolisWx]

Nam looks way colder. Has the potential to really bomb on us.

Every little bit helps.

 

Remember last storm, the Nam took over as boss that Tuesday morning, and said rain rain rain.

Tomorrow morning will be interesting.

[NewCastleWX]

My temp, according to my car is 39F. My house thermometer  is is 38F.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Wow, excellent write up from Fries at the NWS. Gotta be one of the most comprehensive I've read!

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...WINTRY MIX WITH WIDESPREAD SLEET POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...

ONE WORD SUMS UP THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PROCESS...PAINFUL. A
COMBINATION OF A WARM PRECEDING ENVIRONMENT...RAPID TEMPERATURE
FALLS...PRECIPITATION COMING IN DURING THE TEMPERATURE
FALLS...MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES...WARM AIR INTRUSION ALOFT THAT
ACTUALLY INCREASES CONCURRENT WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND MULTIPLE FRONTOGENETICAL MAXIMA THAT BOTH
HAVE IMPRESSIVE LIFT AHEAD OF THEM WITH WIDE EXPANSES OF EPV
REDUCTION IN A HIGHLY SLOPED FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THAT BOTH AT
LEAST PARTIALLY BISECT THE DENDRITIC LAYER RIGHT ON THE END OF THE
WHERE THE THERMAL PROFILES BECOME LESS MARGINAL BELOW THE
DENDRITIC LAYER MAKE THIS FORECASTER BOTH FEEL LIKE A TOTAL
WEATHER NERD AND FEEL INCREDIBLY TROUBLED BY THE FORECAST
VERIFICATION PROSPECTS.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...COLD ADVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN IN THE
NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURE FALLS
WITH THE WIND SHIFT HAVE BEEN ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES AN HOUR ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE FIRST HOUR BEHIND
THE FRONT...RESULTING IN RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS TOWARD THE 30S
ALREADY AS OF 8 PM. THE NWS OFFICE HAS FALLEN 15 DEGREES IN THE
PAST 45 MINUTES IN FACT. THE FIRST SLUG OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
MOISTURE IS RUNNING UP THIS BOUNDARY THAT IS STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE
AREA AND WELL DEPICTED BY THE GFS/NAM IN AFFECTING THE CWA MOSTLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA THIS EVENING. ALL PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING SHOULD BE RAIN...HOWEVER
RATES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE
RATHER HIGH FOR A PERIOD OF 3-6 HOURS.

AFTER 06Z/1AM...IT WOULD SEEM COLD ENOUGH AIR SHOULD BE WORKING
INTO THE AREA THAT THE CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD START
TO OCCUR FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVEN OVERNIGHT...COLD ADVECTION LOOKS
TO BE MORE EFFICIENT AT THE SURFACE THAN ALOFT...WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATING A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER
NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING FROM ROUGHLY 4-8 KFT BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EVEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS TOWARD/BELOW FREEZING.
ADDITIONALLY...THE COOLING BELOW THE WARM LAYER IS SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH THAT AROUND 2.5-3 KFT...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RUN DOWN
ROUGHLY TOWARD -5C OR SO...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO REFREEZE
AND HYDROMETEORS THAT MELT IN THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. AS
SUCH...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REGULATE WHETHER
PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SLEET OF RAIN DEPENDING UPON SURFACE
COOLING AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING RIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY...THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST WILL BE
THE INTERACTION OF YET ANOTHER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED
FRONTOGENETICAL MAXIMA THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
EXISTS ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT ALOFT. IN FACT...DEEP LAYER TILTED LIFTING EXISTS ALONG THE
WARM EDGE OF THE FRONTOGENETICAL MAXIMA IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
THAT DOES MANAGED TO BISECT THE -12 TO -20C LAYER FULLY CO-LOCATED
WITH AN AREA WHERE THE SLOPE OF THE MOMENTUM AND THETA-E LINES
ALLOW THEM TO CROSS ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH A FEW AREAS OF EPV
REDUCTION IN THE LAYER. THIS MAY BE INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF
ADDITIONAL NON-UPRIGHT INSTABILITY AND MAY MANAGE TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONTOGENETICAL MAXIMA.
HOWEVER...THE PROBLEMS ARISE WITH HOW THIS MANIFESTS ITSELF AT THE
SURFACE. LIFTING ALOFT ON THE NAM MANAGES TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH UNDER IT AND JUST WEST OF THE
RIDGES THROUGH THE EVENING ON FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS WARMER AIR ALOFT
TO COME BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST...INCREASING THE DURATION OF
SLEET OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ANCHORS THE
ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IN EASTERN
INDIANA...WESTERMORELAND...FAYETTE...AND MONONGALIA COUNTIES FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUM LIFTING. THE NAM...SREF
MEAN...CANADIAN REGIONAL...AND EVEN THE ECMWF SUPPORT THIS
NOTION...WHILE THE GFS REALLY DOES NOT. GIVEN THE SUPPORT ALOFT
EVEN ON THE GFS...THE PROBABILITY SEEMS HIGHER THAN NOT
PARTICULARLY WITH THE 850 MB LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND LIKELY LEE TROUGHING ASSISTING IN INDUCING
SAID INVERTED TROUGHING JUST WEST OF THE RIDGES THAT WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL MANAGE TO MAKE ITS WAY IN A SECONDARY FASHION TOWARD
MUCH OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
TYPES TRENDING TOWARD SLEET EVEN AS SURFACE COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES/INCREASES WITH SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF THE FLOW FAVORS THIS DIRECTION WITH
PRESSURE FALLS PREDOMINANTLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

WITH A PREFERENCE FOR INCREASED WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...EVEN WITH
INCREASED QPF EXPECTATIONS GIVEN THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT IN THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION...THE SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WERE TAPERED VERY HEAVILY FROM THOSE SUGGESTED BY
BUFKIT FROM THE GFS/NAM. IN FACT...WHILE DENDRITES WILL LIKELY BE
GENERATED ALOFT...PARTIAL MELTING/RIMING IS A FOREGONE CONCLUSION
ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA THAT EXPERIENCES FROZEN PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH...SNOW/SLEET
RATIOS WERE FAVORED ON THE ORDER OF 1-6 TO 1. THE SAME HOLDS TRUE
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DEEPER COLDER AIR ENCROACHES...HOWEVER
DEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE WANES DECIDEDLY BY THAT JUNCTURE. THAT
SAID...A FEW HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AS THE WARM LAYER
FINALLY ERODES...PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH. THE TREND
OF THE WARM WEDGE ALOFT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ON FRIDAY...AS SLIGHTLY DEVIATIONS IN THE TIMING
OF ITS EROSION WOULD HAVE MASSIVE IMPACTS UPON THE SNOW-TO-LIQUID
RATIOS OVER THE AREA.

WITH ALL THIS HAVING BEEN SAID...THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO ALREADY
HAVE MADE ENOUGH PROGRESS TOWARD THE REGION THAT A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER SEEMS LIKELY IN
ARMSTRONG...ALLEGHENY...WASHINGTON...AND BROOKE COUNTIES THAT THE
ADVISORIES WERE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...THE
SLEET WAS EXPANDED A BIT IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW/SLEET TOTALS STILL SEEMING TO BE
LIKELY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 IN PENNSYLVANIA.

NOW...WE WAIT. WELCOME BACK TO WINTER...FOLKS. FRIES

[north pgh]

Wow. Very detailed discussion. 

Remember the 2 sentence discussion we used to get years ago?