Rdd9108 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 This could change for the worse or better in the next hours. We still are 24+ hours out. It looks good for us as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well its very close to us. Of course I-80 gets higher snowfall amounts. Lets hope this thing over performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GFS is now on board and gives us 6 inches of snow among the mixing. The Nam gives us 9 but I think that will change down unless the low moves a tad east on the other models. Looking at the new GGEM we are right on the border of heavier rain and heavy snow. Beaver, Mercer and Lawrence Counties are in the hammer zone. A shift east and we are in the hammer zone. A tad west and more rain and warm tongue. What I do like is how the models are all coming together and we are going to get something. What I find unusual is the amount of back end snow the models are projecting. In most storms we get an inch on the back end where as now they are showing more. Still 48 hours out and lots could change. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Those big wrap around snows rarely come to fruition. I seem to remember we did pretty well with them in the second Feb '10 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 ...although the Canadian seems to be showing a second wave which is producing a longer period of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Regardless, I'm pretty excited by this start to winter. Sometimes we make it through December without a threat like this. A white thanksgiving would be fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Those big wrap around snows rarely come to fruition. I seem to remember we did pretty well with them in the second Feb '10 storm Yeah I think that's more of a coastal phenomenon. Once the low deepens enough, it is usually off the coast and too far east to really affect this region. This area gets hit big, it seems, in rare instances such as a triple phase (ala 1993) or your classic Miller A where moisture from the Gulf attacks high pressure to the north (ala 2010). Now I haven't lived out here my whole life so feel free to correct me. As for this storm, still watching for another 36 hours or so before the details are hammered out. Right now TWC and NWS seem confident, for whatever reason, in a decent amount of snow from N. WV up through Western PA. The NAM seems to be their primary support (GFS is marginal but it is moving towards all the others--not sure why it was so far behind). Blending all the models it is probably a thread-the-needle type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Pretty impressive cold for November. Last time we had temps in the teens in November was 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Amazing how far off the GFS was for days and then it suddenly catches on as we get within a couple days of the event. All the other models have been pretty consistent in how this thing is going to track. Anyway, I'm thinking this is going to be an event where someone is going to get thumped but it won't be a very large area. There will be a sharp cutoff to the west while there will be mixing issues just to the east. Too bad we don't have that arctic high in place to feed cold air into the system. Combine that with still being in November and you have a system where you have to have a lot to go right to get a big snow event. That being said, I still think we are very close with this one. A lot of time yet to get a better idea exactly where this is going to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted November 24, 2013 Author Share Posted November 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted November 24, 2013 Author Share Posted November 24, 2013 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 312 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013 OHZ040-041-049-050-058-059-068-069-PAZ013-020-021-029-031-073-075- WVZ001>004-012-021-022-250415- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0006.131126T1500Z-131127T1800Z/ CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE- MONROE-LAWRENCE-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND- FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARROLLTON...SALEM...CADIZ... STEUBENVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL... WOODSFIELD...NEW CASTLE...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA... WASHINGTON...WAYNESBURG...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...UNIONTOWN... WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE... FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN 312 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. * SNOW BEGINNING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. STEADIER SNOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING TUESDAY. * PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...TUESDAY NIGHT. * PERIOD OF POSSIBLE TRANSITION...SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN OR SLEET EVERYWHERE FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * SNOW ENDING...WEDNESDAY. * WINDS...NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO ACCUMULATION OF A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATION MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTER WEATHER AND MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOMEPAGE NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS MEDIA. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Wednesday morning rush hour could be very ugly. I bet a lot more people will decide to take an extra long weekend if this occurs. I know I won't work Wednesday if this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Nam is a whiff...fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted November 24, 2013 Author Share Posted November 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Nam is a whiff...fwiw. PIT gets .44 of what appears to be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kagc http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kpit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Hopefully we can see some higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Hopefully we can see some higher amounts. Usually, the local mets start out conservative with their calls. I think that's a pretty decent call for right now though. Still plenty of time for that to change either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I say booooo to that call, but I guess it shouldn't surprise me. 2" down here really is all I should expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 My gut tells me 2-3" down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Usually, the local mets start out conservative with their calls. I think that's a pretty decent call for right now though. Still plenty of time for that to change either way. This sometimes can be a huge downfall. I dont expect it to happen with this storm, but in 2010 we were forecasted for 3-5 then 6-12 then they just went with a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I actually think the lack of HP to the north is bad news (perhaps the death knell), particularly for the southern areas. That warm tongue always rears it's ugly head without a strong enough HP system to keep in the low level cold. I imagine this ends up being mostly rain for us down here (Motown) unless the low doesn't intensify as much as expected. If that's the case then it is less snow for everyone, but not as much warmth/rain. Always tough to say, though, how far north that rain/snow line moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I actually think the lack of HP to the north is bad news (perhaps the death knell), particularly for the southern areas. That warm tongue always rears it's ugly head without a strong enough HP system to keep in the low level cold. I imagine this ends up being mostly rain for us down here (Motown) unless the low doesn't intensify as much as expected. If that's the case then it is less snow for everyone, but not as much warmth/rain. Always tough to say, though, how far north that rain/snow line moves. Yeah, the lack of high pressure combined with the time of year probably hurts us to an extent. The low or lows are tracking right where we'd normally want them to for this area and yet the mixing and changeovers could still occur, for at least part of the storm. If this was happening in January and/or there was a high feeding some cold air into this, we'd probably see higher amounts. That being said, getting something like this so early in the season is a nice start to the season for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Not much change. NAM gives us 4 inches GFS gives us 6.5. GGEM is still borderline heavy snow and snow/rain line. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html I am guessing at this point 4-6 would be the right call but could go higher if we get no mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Looks to close for comfort to me... NAM and GFS both continue to bring the 0c line further west but the heavy precip seems to stay in the warm sector. To bad as other have mentioned we don't have a strong high funneling in some cold air. 12z runs tomorrow should start to hammer in on this. One thing we have going for us that you might not normally have in an early season snowfall is several days of sub or near freezing temperatures. Ground temperatures should not impose any limit to snow accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Mixing looks like it can be a problem lowering our snow amounts in Agh county. Hopefully we can get some cold air to prevent rain/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Haha Kdka just said up to 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Haha Kdka just said up to 10 inches. Was that for Pittsburgh or places north west because Wpxi said maybe 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 They said 10 max pgh metro, if we get NO rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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