Pittsburgh/Western Pa Weather

[Mailman]

Winter Weather Advisory for the higher elevations.

[north pgh]

Still there for us.

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[Mailman]

GFS ensembles looked pretty favorable, as well.

[north pgh]

Still there.

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[colonel717]

Still there.

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

GFS is still the only one out to sea.  Either its on crack or it is the new King...

[colonel717]

Euro is nice an juicy...  Not sure how much of this is snow, but 1.6 inches of precip for southern AGC

 

 

 

 

[meatwad]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

147 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013

OHZ039>041-049-050-PAZ013>016-020>023-029-073-WVZ001-002-231930-

ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BROOKE WV-BUTLER PA-CARROLL OH-

CLARION PA-COLUMBIANA OH-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-INDIANA PA-

JEFFERSON PA-JEFFERSON OH-LAWRENCE PA-TUSCARAWAS OH-WASHINGTON PA-

WESTMORELAND PA-

147 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013

...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT PARTS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN

OHIO...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...

AT 142 PM EST...A SNOW SQUALL WAS ALONG A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST

OF DUBOIS TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF CANTON OHIO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45

MPH. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO 1/2 MILE...WHILE PRODUCING A COATING

OF SNOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UPWARDS OF 40 MPH WHEN THE SNOW

SQUALL PASSES.

HIGHWAYS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

I-376 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 13 AND 52.

I-376 PARKWAY WEST BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 53 AND 64.

I-79 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 58 AND 106.

I-76 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 53.

I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 62 AND 96.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING

TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER

@NWSPITTSBURGH.

LAT...LON 4072 7879 4063 7884 4026 8100 4066 8146

4066 8125 4073 8123 4073 8110 4089 8109

4094 8086 4091 8081 4091 8053 4100 8052

4127 7887 4118 7877

$$

[colonel717]

Lets hope the GFS isn't correct...

 

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[blackngoldrules]

Lets hope the GFS isn't correct... 

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Seems like the GFS has been the outlier. Both Euro and Canadian have us getting hammered. I haven't seen the others yet.t

[CoraopolisWx]

We'll see if that squall line holds together long enough to give us a quick whitening of the grass

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Storm next week looks interesting. I think tonights 00z GFS will  start to come on board with the other models with a more west solution if that is indeed going to be the final outcome. If it happens like the Euro, I wouldn't mind looking forward to an early start to the Thanksgiving break. Luckily we are having the family at our place, so I don't have any travel worries.

 

Light coating of snow on the ground right now with gusty windows. Had my daughter outside, she wanted to catch her first snow flakes on her tongue for the season lol. Hoping for a fluffy inch or so overnight. Sure feels like winter out there right now.

[colonel717]

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[colonel717]

GFS not wavering still out to sea

 

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[Burghblizz]

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE LOOKS TO STILL BE GOING IN HIGH GREAT AT
LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOLID
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH AN UNSTABLE AND MOIST LAYER THAN
INCLUDED THE ENTIRETY OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WHILE
INVERSION HEIGHT DO START TO FALL OFF...THIS SHOULD NOT REALLY
HAVE AN IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON LOWERING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTHER TIER...RATHER THE SLOW SHIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO
A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WILL EVENTUALLY DO JUST THAT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS SHOULD START TO HAPPEN DURING THE
EVENING...AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN SNOW BANDS
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AND ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. ANOTHER INCH OF TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE SHIFTING
BANDS...WITH VIRTUALLY NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FARTHER
SOUTH.

AFTER THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...A BIT OF A QUIET INTERLUDE
LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BETWEEN MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING WELL BELOW 0C...SO HIGHS LOOK TO BE
STUCK IN THE 30S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY HIGH
SPREAD WITH THE PLACEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT/FILLING OF THE
ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER PROBLEMATIC. IN TRYING
TO DISCERN TRENDS FROM THE GUIDANCE...A FEW THINGS HAVE BECOME
RATHER CLEAR IN TERMS OF THE DPROG/DT PERSPECTIVE. FIRST OF
ALL...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM ALL FAVOR SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM
INTERACTION AND INFLUENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE AREA. AS SUCH...A DEEPER SYSTEM TRACKS MUCH FARTHER NORTH ON
ALL OF THESE MODELS. THEY HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS...AND CONTINUE TO BE SO. IN FACT...THEY
ARE INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THAT THE NAM
IS BY FAR THE MOST NORTHWESTERN OUTLYING SOLUTION...IT WAS LARGELY
DISCARDED IN FAVOR OF THE MORE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF AND
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS THAT REALLY HAVE ONLY TRENDED SLIGHTLY FROM
THEIR 00Z RUNS TO 12Z RUNS TODAY. AS SUCH...IT SEEMS AT THE VERY
LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE LIKELY
TO SEE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS IDEA ALSO LARGELY
DISCOUNTS THE GFS...AS ITS TREND IS DEEP WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
UNLIKE ANY OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE SYSTEM AND HENCE MAINTAINS A
SPLIT FLOW WITH LITTLE INTEGRATION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
AND ENERGY INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS. WHILE THE GFS IS DRY FOR
BASICALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THE STRONG CONSENSUS OF ALL
OTHER GUIDANCE IS TO GO MUCH MORE MOIST...SO THIS IDEA WAS
FOLLOWED AND LIKELY POPS WERE ADDED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AS DIFFICULT AS DETERMINING APPROPRIATE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WAS...IT TRULY WAS THE EASY PART OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THERMAL PROFILES WILL ALSO LIKELY BE QUITE MARGINAL AT TIMES AS IT
PASSES IF A CANADIAN/ECMWF TYPE SCENARIO BEARS OUT. BOTH ECMWF AND
CANADIAN PROJECTIONS BRING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO NEARLY 0C
FROM DUBOIS TO PITTSBURGH TO SOUTHEASTERN OHIO DURING THE HEIGHT
OF WARM ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH
ARE HIGHLY COARSE...SUGGEST AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WOULD INTERCEPT
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE
SURFACE MAY REMAIN NEAR FREEZING. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING THE
ENTIRE ARRAY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES INTO PLAY AS THESE SOLUTIONS
WOULD LIKELY SUGGEST A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO POSSIBLY
RAIN THEN BACK TO SNOW KIND OF SCENARIO. ALL OF THIS IS VERY
SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS FAR FROM BEING
DETERMINISTIC AT THIS TIME...SO TO ADEQUATELY COVER THE ARRAY OF
POSSIBILITIES...LIKELY RAIN/SNOW WAS CARRIED FOR THE WARMER HALF
OF THE SYSTEM PROGRESSION...WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST...THINGS STILL SEEM MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AS THE
COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN MORE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED. FRIES

[joecon]

Latest NAM--1800--has Pgh getting 2.8 inches of snow. I think this is going to be another storm where 30-50 miles in either direction could make a big difference. So get ready to hear all of the TV Weather guy & gals giving us the old "It all depend on the track of the storm" line!

[jwilson]

The more it intensifies, the further west it will come.  This is, of course, a double-edged sword, as the closer it comes the higher probability of it being a cold rain rather than snow.  Seems pretty typical, and either way it looks like it may be rain down here in the southern valleys (Morgantown).  Pittsburgh will certainly have a better chance of accumulating snows.  I don't see much of a HP presence on the models at this time.

[blackngoldrules]

Any of my fellow Bethel Parkers just experience that squall that just went through? White out conditions. I probably picked up a very quick inch. I was driving home in it and people were getting stuck on the hills. Thank God I have 4 wheel drive.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

GFS comes NW, but still keeps us on the sidelines. Compromise between tonights 00z GFS and 12z Euro would likely yield an interesting solution. One thing I have noticed is that it seems there is a failry thin band of juicier precip on the models that would stay all snow, so you don't want this coming to far NW.

 

[whamcity]

still looks like most of the models are suggesting at least 6" to me, but I'm just an amateur. 

[colonel717]

GFS00z snow depth by Wed 4pm


 

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[north pgh]

A little bit of everything. Snow to rain back to snow. Still there.

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[Mailman]

^ Yeah... that'd probably be a mess.

I'm feeling the GFS ensemble.  I was thinking about posting one of the ensemble member snow depth maps on Facebook just to stir people up a bit.  Hah.

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

Warm tongue....ugh

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Warm tongue....ugh

Yuck... seems like the Euro has a warm tongue as well judging from the snow map in the Central PA thread. Unfortunately 9 times out of 10 the warm tongue is under estimated on the models. We have all had a forecast with a changeover happening around say 4am only to hear the dreaded ping ping on the windows hours ahead of schedule.   Hopefully this thing tracks a little farther E.Either way it would be a terrible travel day.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Pretty classic Huron connection showing up on the radar this morning. I wonder if that will hold together long enough to bring some snow showers to our area as the windws shift more N to S?

[RitualOfTheTrout]

After looking at the models a bit more closely, I wonder if a faster phase would help us out. It looks like that low in the lakes is the primary culprit for the WAA ahead of the storm. Assuming a faster phase wouldn't bring this to far NW that could help shutoff the WAA sooner and allow the main storm to deepen sooner, pulling in more cold air. I could be way off base here, but just a thought.

[north pgh]

12Z Nam has us getting 9.5 inches as the storm really wraps up. I still don't believe it will hold but it's nice to be in the game.

[whamcity]

I can hardly wait to be disappointed lol

[north pgh]

Keep the faith. You never know. Thanksgiving, November 26th 1950.

[whamcity]

I want, I want. Accuweather just gave me 1-3, no thanks. I have to keep reminding myself that it's only November.