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Pittsburgh/Western Pa Weather


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Ended up with about an inch. I woke up around 1:00am and it was coming down nicely. Would be nice to see some snow showers today before the cold moves out.

NWS is saying in their discussion of a shortwave moving through this evening with a potential of more snow showers developing later on. Looks to be Northerly flow now but we may get another coating or so tonight if it materializes and wind becomes more northwest. 

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Severe possible on Sunday.

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  ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL   ACUS48 KWNS 141000   SPC AC 141000   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0400 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013   VALID 171200Z - 221200Z   ...DISCUSSION...   SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS...BUT TRENDS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST   GUIDANCE ARE INCREASINGLY SUGGESTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN   ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS   PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE   OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.  MOST GUIDANCE NOW APPEARS GENERALLY FASTER   WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE   TROUGH...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY TO THE LOWER GREAT   LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION BY LATE SUNDAY   NIGHT.  MOST MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED   BY STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...WITH MOST RAPID SURFACE PRESSURE   FALLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY LATE   SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.     A 90+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...COUPLED   WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WARM SECTOR 850 MB FLOW...PERHAPS IN   EXCESS OF 70 KTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER   GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS   AND SHEAR.  IT ALSO APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THAT THIS WILL   COINCIDE WITH AN INFLUX OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AT LEAST   AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO   SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT.  SUPERCELLS WITH A   RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN EARLY STAGES   OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MID DAY ACROSS PARTS   OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY VALLEY.   EVENTUALLY...THOUGH...ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL   LINE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS BECOMING THE MOST PROMINENT   SEVERE THREAT.  IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD   PROGRESS INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHEAST LATE   SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT THIS IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO   DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA EAST OF THAT CURRENTLY   DEPICTED.  THEREAFTER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER   OF THE PERIOD APPEARS LOW.   ..KERR.. 11/14/2013   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Hazardous Weather Outlook


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

1021 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2013

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-

029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-170330-

GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-

JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-

FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-

ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-

FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-

MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-

1021 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST

CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST

PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE

OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A LINE OF

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...

WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING.

$$

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   SPC AC 171259   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0659 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013   VALID 171300Z - 181200Z   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF   ILLINOIS...INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO...AND SRN MICHIGAN...   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK   AREA...FROM MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND EASTERN MISSOURI NEWD INTO THE LWR   GRT LKS...   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH AND MDT   RISK AREAS...FROM PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY NEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC   STATES/WRN NEW ENGLAND...   ...SYNOPSIS...   SVR WEATHER OUTBREAK...WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND   WIDESPREAD DMGG WINDS...EXPECTED OVER THE OH VLY AND SRN   GREAT LKS REGION TODAY/TNGT...   POTENT CNTRL PLNS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH MID-LVL WIND SPEEDS AOA   100 KTS...WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE NRN OZARKS/MID MS VLY LATER   TODAY...AND ENE ACROSS THE OH VLY BY EARLY TNGT...BEFORE TURNING   MORE NEWD ACROSS LWR GRT LKS/NRN APPALACHIANS EARLY MON. THE SYSTEM   WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT SHOULD TRACK   FROM SE IA THIS MORNING INTO NRN LWR MI BY EARLY TNGT. COLD FRONT   TRAILING S AND SW FROM THE LOW...NOW EXTENDING THROUGH NW MO AND FAR   ERN KS...SHOULD ACCELERATE E/SEWD THROUGH THE DAY...OVERTAKING   PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER MO...AND REACHING WRN OH/N CNTRL KY   THIS EVE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE RAPIDLY E ACROSS THE LWR GRT   LKS...THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND WRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TNGT/EARLY   MON.   COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG TO INTENSE WIND FIELD WITH APPRECIABLE   SFC-BASED INSTABILITY OVER A FAIRLY WIDE AREA WILL YIELD A BROAD   SWATH OF SVR WEATHER FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VLY TO THE   MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NORTHEAST. THE GREATEST/MOST CONCENTRATED   SVR THREAT...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY STRONG AND/OR LONG-TRACK   TORNADOES...SHOULD FOCUS OVER THE OH VLY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE   MIDWEST BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY   TNGT.   ...MID MS/OH/LWR TN VLYS NEWD TO LWR GRT LKS/WRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY   THROUGH EARLY MON...   LATEST OBSERVED DATA SHOW SFC LOW ALREADY STARTING TO DEEPEN OVER S   CNTRL IA...WITH LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS   CNTRL MO...ALONG AND E OF PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH. AT UPR   LVLS...SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT EXIT REGION OF CNTRL PLNS JET STREAK   WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS IA/NRN MO THROUGH MID-MORNING...AND INTO   NRN/CNTRL IL BY MIDDAY.   COMBINATION OF INCREASING ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING WITH THE JET   STREAK...CONTINUED LOW-LVL MOISTURE INFLOW /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS   RISING INTO THE 60 F/...AND MODEST SFC HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM   DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF MERGING COLD FRONT/TROUGH BY MID TO   LATE MORNING OVER ERN MO AND CNTRL/NRN IL. OTHER STORMS SHOULD   CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ZONE OF STRENGTHENING WAA FROM ERN IA INTO   FAR NRN IL/SRN WI.   INTENSITY OF LOW TO MID-LVL WIND FIELD...PARTICULARLY WITH 700 MB   SPEEDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 50 AND 70 KTS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH   SUBSTANTIAL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY /SBCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J PER   KG/...WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED   DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...BEGINNING IN FAR ERN MO...AND   THEN CONTINUING ENE ACROSS MUCH OF IL...IND...FAR SRN WI...SRN MI   AND WRN OH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.   WHILE STRENGTH OF SHEAR /RELATIVE TO DEGREE OF LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE   AND BUOYANCY/...AND DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE BETWEEN STORMS MAY   PROVE TO BE LIMITING FACTORS...SETUP NONETHELESS APPEARS CAPABLE OF   SUPPORTING A FEW LONG-TRACK/POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES. WITH   TIME...ESPECIALLY THIS EVE AS LINEAR FORCING INCREASES ALONG   STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT...THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SEVERAL   BROKEN LINES...WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS AND RESIDUAL SUPERCELL   CIRCULATIONS CONTINUING TO POSE A RISK FOR DMGG WIND EWD INTO THE   NRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. WHILE TIME OF DAY WILL BE   UNFAVORABLE...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD/DCVA...AND PRESENCE OF EXITING   CONVECTIVE BAND SUGGEST AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DMGG WINDS   EARLY MON EWD INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.   FARTHER S...MID-LVL WARMING ON S SIDE OF AMPLIFIED MIDWESTERN JET   STREAK MAY SOMEWHAT HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT/DELAY SVR THREAT IN   VERY MOIST/MODERATELY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER   THE LWR TN AND LWR MS VLYS. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST A LOW   CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SVR STORMS /INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH A   TORNADO OR TWO/...WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY   TNGT...ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS RECEIVING ENHANCED AFTN SFC HEATING.   ..CORFIDI/PETERS.. 11/17/2013   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1418Z (9:18AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME        
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2027
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA...WRN NY...FAR NRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 180036Z - 180130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...UPSTREAM QLCS WILL SPREAD EWD INTO WRN PA AND WRN NY AFTER
02Z...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING DMGG WIND THREAT POSSIBLE. A SVR TSTM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

DISCUSSION...QLCS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL OH IS PROGRESSING EWD AT
APPROXIMATELY 50 KT...WITH NRN PORTIONS OF THE LINE REACHING WRN
PORTIONS OF PA AROUND 02Z. BUOYANCY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IS
VERY MARGINAL WITH MINIMAL CAPE NOTED IN BOTH PIT AND BUF SOUNDINGS
AT 00Z. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A FAST-MOVING
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE. THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
LIKELY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ACCOMPANYING DMGG WIND
THREAT...DESPITE POOR INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...REQUIRING ISSUANCE OF A WW ACROSS WRN PA INTO WRN NY.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 11/18/2013


ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 43447807 43337721 41957770 39757905 39787942 39718074
41518046 41988042 42507959 43317907 43447807 

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 SEL0   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 570   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   825 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF      THE WESTERN MARYLAND PANHANDLE     WESTERN NEW YORK     WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA     THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE     LAKE ERIE     LAKE ONTARIO   * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 825 PM     UNTIL 100 AM EST.   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...     SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF   BUFFALO NEW YORK TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MORGANTOWN WEST   VIRGINIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.   &&   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 565...WW 566...WW   567...WW 568...WW 569...   DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE WILL RACE EWD AT 50 KT ACROSS WRN PA/NY   DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  DESPITE MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND   LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING...60-70 KT FLOW WITHIN 1 KM OF THE GROUND   WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE.   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT   TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM   MOTION VECTOR 27050.   ...THOMPSON
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Fast Moving Storm

 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGOHC013-029-067-081-PAC003-007-019-125-WVC009-029-051-069-180300-/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0244.131118T0206Z-131118T0300Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA906 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  NORTHERN BELMONT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...  SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIANA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...  EASTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...  JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...  NORTHWESTERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...  BEAVER COUNTY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...  SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...  NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...  OHIO COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...  NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...  HANCOCK COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...  BROOKE COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...* UNTIL 1000 PM EST* AT 902 PM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE  EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF BEAVER CREEK STATE PARK TO 14 MILES  WEST OF FLUSHING...AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH. THIS LINE OF  STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  BEAVER CREEK STATE PARK...                  HAMMONDSVILLE...  DARLINGTON...         WELLSVILLE...         CADIZ...  NEWELL...             HOPEDALE...           EAST LIVERPOOL...  FLUSHING...           RICHMOND...           BLACKHAWK...  UNIONPORT...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY MORNINGFOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO.THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. MOVE INTO ASTURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS.PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TOTHE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.&&LAT...LON 4086 8004 4046 8020 4000 8059 4011 8119      4045 8089 4063 8068 4085 8052TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 273DEG 63KT 4084 8052 4018 8124$$
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