CooL Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Navgem H5, awesome look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Here is the 0z GGEM. It doesn't look bad at all. Much more widespread with the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Im still thinking the gfs is correct and that we will be hard pressed to see healthy accums as those areas with snow hover around 36f....fwiw srefs backed off big time Are U talking about the SREFS BEFORE the latest Nam ? Cause yeah they were bad cause this afternoons Nam was bad(following suit) but than came back strong tonight like the SREF's probably will later tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 0z GEFS is northwest of the op with the preciphttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12048.gifIt shows a 984 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Sharp gradient on the GEFS .25+ for LI,.50 + for NYC , .75 + from Staten Island southward.http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep72072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Sharp gradient on the GEFS .25+ for LI,.50 + for NYC , .75 + from Staten Island southward.http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep72072.gif Well not terrible but still lower end of guidance as far as precip. However another bump NW and the GFS is also a major storm for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Well not terrible but still lower end of guidance as far as precip. However another bump NW and the GFS is also a major storm for everyone. Here was the 12z GEFS. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep72072.gif This run was a big bump from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Sharp gradient on the GEFS .25+ for LI,.50 + for NYC , .75 + from Staten Island southward.http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep72072.gif actually most of LI is .5+ besides nw suffolk and twin forks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 actually most of LI is .5+ besides nw suffolk and twin forks sorry ne suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Ukmet now 10mm+ for Queens, Brooklyn and SI. 15mm+ for southern Jersey. Big bump NW compared to all its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Ukmet now 10mm+ for Queens, Brooklyn and SI. 15mm+ for southern Jersey. Big bump NW compared to all its previous runs. Seems to be a concensus forming. Will the almighty follow suit, or put the rest to shame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 euro shifted NW...not enough for a big hit but the LP is noticeably stronger and further NW. Precip is still only around 0.25-0.35 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 euro shifted NW...not enough for a big hit but the LP is noticeably stronger and further NW. Precip is still only around 0.25-0.35 for NYCLow is 984mb and tucked in.And agood ccb develops and barely misses NYC. This is a much better run. 1 more shift tomorrow and we're good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Still a pretty significant system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro: .27" LGA .36" ISP 1.11" ACY .63" PHL .33" ABE That ACY number shows how close the main CCB was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard96 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 OBS, radar is more impressive than NAM with convection down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Here's hoping I can stay in the Catskills and have the equivalent snow Long Island would getbecause of the better ratios here, does anyone know what the euro would spit out QPF wise for KMSV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Lost in all this seeing how much each model spits out precip wise what are the Temp differences in each model and will most of the precip be Snow ? As of now Central NJ I believe will see at least 4+ inches on grassy surfaces if you blend all the models..Obviously could go up if the storm looks look more like NAM or NavGem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 wow nothing on the Nam or SREF's ? Place is pretty dead with the potential Last hurrah of the season coming up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 NWS-Upton just put out their snowfall map, indicating a general 2-3" event for NYC metro, LI and the southern Hudson Valley (1-2" for the northern Hudson Valley and CT), although they weren't confident enough to issue WWAdvisories, as per the discussion, noting, as several posters here have noted, that the key to the forecast is how the interaction of the Canadian Maritimes low with the developing coastal low is handled. So, we're looking at a decent snowfall, with a more major snowfall still possible, which, at the end of the day, isn't too bad for late March. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE COASTAL STORM FORMONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL PREDICTABILITY ISSUES CONTINUE FOR THISTIME PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY WITH THE ROLE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET INSTRENGTHENING A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE EAST COASTFROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...AND THE EXACT INTERACTION OFTHIS ENERGY WITH WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIANMARITIMES. UP UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...MODELS ARE IN DECENTAGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN LOW AND TENNESSEE VALLEY LOW CONVERGINGTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IT IS FROM THAT POINT ON THAT THE EXACTNATURE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED EVOLUTION WILL DETERMINE EXACT TRACKAND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AS IT INTENSIFIES AND TRACKSENE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING TO SE OF THE 40/70LAT/LON MONDAY EVENING.ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFERENCES ARE NOT IMMENSE...SUBTLE DIFFERENCE INTRACK AND INTENSITY WILL HAVE BIG CONSEQUENCES. THE NAM/SREF REMAINA FARTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION...WITH DECENTCLUSTERING BETWEEN THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFS/CAN AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLESMEANS WITH A FURTHER S AND QUICKER SOLUTIONS. BASED ON MODELPERFORMANCE THIS SEASON...GREATER CONSENSUS...AND MORE CONSISTENCYHAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN WITH THE LATTER GROUP.THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENTFOR MOST OF THE REGION MON INTO MON EVE...WHILE THE SOUTHERNSOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...HIGHEST AMOUNTS FORTHE COAST. BASED ON THE MODEL PREDICTABILITY ISSUES MENTIONED ABOVEAND A BIT OF SUPPORT FOR THE NAM/SREF FROM THE GEFS MEMBERS...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SREF/NAM SOLUTIONS. BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE INSEEING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS TOO LOW (LESS THAN 50%) FOR ANYWINTER WEATHER WATCHES AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOKS TO BE SUBADVISORY LEVELS (GREATER THAN 30 MPH SUSTAINED AND/OR 45 MPHGUSTS) AT THIS TIME. SEE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FORMORE DETAILS ON THE THREAT FOR MAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Nam is south of 0z sref is north of 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The biggest problem here, i think....is that as long as we are not in that very heavy band of precip (which should be over southern portions of NJ).....we definitely will not be able to get a significant accumulation of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 6z GEFS is similiar to the 0z GEFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep72072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover20 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hopefully the models trend in our favor today, if not, this seems like miss. The theme of this winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 6z Nam is .50-.75 for NYC with more in the southern part of NYC towards Brooklyn.http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p48&cycle=06ℑ=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_p48.gif6z Nam Hi Res gets the CCB into NYChttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=06ℑ=nam-hires%2F06%2Fnam-hires_namer_033_sim_reflectivity.gif6z Navgem shifted slightly east but still looks decenthttps://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013032406∏=prpτ=036&set=AllJMA looks excellenthttp://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_72HR.gif6z Rgem shifted southeasthttp://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3284_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro snowmap shows 3 + for NJ except for southern NJ near Cape May and Wildwood where there is a little bubble of 6+. NYC gets 1-3 inches on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The Radar looks good down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The 3z SREF ticked enough Northwest to get New York City and most of New Jersey into the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 It will be interesting to watch for thundersnow in the heavier bands tomorrow working north through Central New Jersey. We would need a more northerly tick in 12z guidance today to get the heavier bands to push as far north as the NAM has. KJFK 39 03/25 15Z 35 33 55 22 0.14 0.01 538 535 -6.1 -21.5 996 100 TSSN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Any word on euro ens mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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