MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The low gets down to 977 on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Not as good as the Nam but still impressive amounts for March. The thing about this system is, there's nothing to really even track yet. It's going to come down to the wobble of a minor vortmax to the NE of us and whether or not that's enough to change heights over New England enough to allow the southern system to do it's thing. Almost every single storm in this past 45 days has come north. This one has a hard ceiling, but it could push right up against it and clobber quite a few of you in the meantime. Also, I've found the GGEM to be a little better than the RGEM even in tight not sure why. So, keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 RGEM took a nice tick NW on this run from the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 RGEM total snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 RGEM total snow I am in that red in ocean county NJ. Is that 40MM water equivelant of snow.. like 18"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 To me through 24 the RGEM...looks like the confluence is a bit further NE than the last run (main run at 12z). You can see right away it's weaker on the western side with the old ULL to the northeast of us. It's right there with the NAM as far as the lead vort max having some space to move northward up the coast. The Euro refuses to buy into this. The wave spacing has a lot to do with this but It's also the positioning if the vort itself. One concerning thing is that the NAM shifted the entire height field southeast over the TN Valley earlier in the run. So that was a lean towards the Euro despite the differences with the confluence. When I was watching the Euro earlier I was thinking that it seemed south and east of NCEP guidance with the shortwave as a whole. Which makes it even harder to get it north...when it's starting farther south to begin with. It'll be really interesting to see how this goes...and even more of a headache if the cutoff sets up right over the NYC Area. Lets not forget about the warm boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I am in that red in ocean county NJ. Is that 40MM water equivelant of snow.. like 18"? Yes it is, it is 1.57 of QPF if you get 40 MM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Right Now South to Central NJ looks like Game on depending on Temps..Now question is will meaningful Precip make it up past North Jersey and NYC ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 here is the total snow qpf as per RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS is a tick NW at 45 Confluence is slightly more north - Precip still stays just south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS is a tick NW at 45 Confluence is slightly more north Freezing line is all the way in the midwest . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I am in that red in ocean county NJ. Is that 40MM water equivelant of snow.. like 18"? 15.7480314961 to be exact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS is a sort of miss... 0.25 QPF gets into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS is slightly drier than the 18z run. It did trend west but the low was strung out on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 15.7480314961 to be exact. Thanks.. doubt it will verify.. will be happy with 1-3 inches this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 .25 -.5 for nyc to almost 1 in near philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 .25 -.5 for nyc to almost 1 in near philly thats the northern cutoff for ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 The GFS precipitation shield is slightly suspect, and I'm the last person who will question the surface reflection of a forecast model. It's good to see the tick northwest with the surface low position. That's all we can really take out of the GFS run. The NAM and RGEM are tucked in near the coast with plenty of precipitation. We'll see where the later 00z runs take us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 If you cut the nams qpf by half and blend it with the rgem and gfs ... if it is all snow prob 2-4 nyc northern parts to south... 4-6 somerset middlesex northern monmouth,,,, 6-9 inches mercer philly and 195 corridor nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 So once again the NAM and GFS flip Flopping on total Precip. Seems like these 2 cant be on the same page with this storm.GFS looks like 1-3 while Nam looks like 8-12,RGEM looks like 6-10..Not sure of Eukie, JMA or GGEM and of Course Euro later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 John you are going to nail the whole sharp cutoff call from a few days ago. The biggest issue is are those in the .5 or less areas going to see hard enough snow to actually accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The GFS precipitation shield is slightly suspect, and I'm the last person who will question the surface reflection of a forecast model. It's good to see the tick northwest with the surface low position. That's all we can really take out of the GFS run. The NAM and RGEM are tucked in near the coast with plenty of precipitation. We'll see where the later 00z runs take us. GFS has been pretty useless whenever there's convection involved. It made the move towards the mesos but seems to be choking with the qpf max it develops over the Delmarva which oddly puts the normally fast GFS on the slow side aloft. UK has normally choked as well. I could be totally wrong, but I'd pay much more attention to the GGEM. It's interesting to me that all models so far have initialized the feature to the NE in our favor. IE just a little further north, and a little more out of the way in terms of what's swinging down to the west. GGEM could be off to a good start at 0h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 John you are going to nail the whole sharp cutoff call from a few days ago. The biggest issue is are those in the .5 or less areas going to see hard enough snow to actually accumulate. I can easily see the cutoff being NW to SE oriented instead of your typical NE to SW cutoff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS has been pretty useless whenever there's convection involved. It made the move towards the mesos but seems to be choking with the qpf max it develops over the Delmarva which oddly puts the normally fast GFS on the slow side aloft. UK has normally choked as well. I could be totally wrong, but I'd pay much more attention to the GGEM. It's interesting to me that all models so far have initialized the feature to the NE in our favor. IE just a little further north, and a little more out of the way in terms of what's swinging down to the west. GGEM could be off to a good start at 0h. Maybe I was a little quick calling this off for NYC... What a convoluted setup we have ourselves here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 John you are going to nail the whole sharp cutoff call from a few days ago. The biggest issue is are those in the .5 or less areas going to see hard enough snow to actually accumulate. The AO and extreme blocking was a dead giveaway to me. The shortwave and confluent vort timing helped but any storm at this time would've hard a sharp cutoff on the north end. It's fitting that it might set up in the NYC Area. Should make for a PITA forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 0z Navgem is close to the coast. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013032400∏=prpτ=042&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Maybe I was a little quick calling this off for NYC... What a convoluted setup we have ourselves here. I kept saying miracle up by my area (keep in mind I'm pretty much right on the south coast by the Cape well south of BOS). I guess the better term would have been good luck. It'll just take a wobble or two from vortmax in the flow to the NE to change the height field enough for this to happen for you guys. There's so many little variances in the flow around this big old block models will struggle right up to inside of 24 hours. A little bit of luck and you guys get the potential to be buried. A little more luck and it makes it up into CT and southern RI. The nature of the flow may still make it tough for me even if parts of CT and RI get smoked. I'd like to see the GGEM come north a bit tonight from it's earlier run, Euro too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Perhaps central to south central nj will be the jackpot zone this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Im still thinking the gfs is correct and that we will be hard pressed to see healthy accums as those areas with snow hover around 36f....fwiw srefs backed off big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Im still thinking the gfs is correct and that we will be hard pressed to see healthy accums as those areas with snow hover around 36f....fwiw srefs backed off big time GFS looks funky. It went west but the precip shield was disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.