kingwill42 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The Rollercoaster Ride Continues.. lets not get too excited it showed a similar solution this time last night and the Rest of the guidance was not nearly as good.. If the rest of tonights runs look similar than it may be time to get excited.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'm not getting sucked in until either the euro jumps on board or until the storm is underway, we have fallen for this time and time again and i don't feel like getting tricked again. Up here in eastern sne the rgem/ggem have been as useful as even the euro. The CMC stuff has been bumping north. If the rgem follows this run game on for you guys. Fun system. Changes in the nam were immediate. By 6-9 hours it looked nothing like any earlier run to the northeast. Either it got some bad data or something tonight got initialized well for the first time. We will soon find out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 4K much more tucked in as well - Sim radar at 36 is just insane - OMG @ the sim radar @ 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Please autotoss the NAM til they fix it. Euro/GFS blend os usually the best way to go. We all know the gfs is inconsistent but it usually has some sort of idea and gfs/euro compromise usually gives u a decent forecast. After seeing the NAM, im guessing the SREFs will be well NW next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hi Res Nam is nicehttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=00ℑ=nam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_036_sim_reflectivity.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Money shot on the hi-res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Tremendous grouping of the models east of AC some 50 miles east some 100 miles east , but no model takes it straight east off Hatteras and out or straight East off the Delmarva and out , they all are in pretty good agreement with the placement of the SLP . If you are in CNJ theres pretty good agreement that a significant winter storm may be on the way and for NYC I think people have to realize that the margin of error has been 50 miles all along , not 150 miles . Not saying the NAM is right ( in fact if it was the only model showing it , i would dismiss it ) , But look at the euro ensembles and its control run the SLP is close . Dont know how anyone could have thrown this threat away today . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Money shot on the hi-res I'd buy that solution for a dollar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Nam lead the way with the Quasi Norlun Trough a few weeks ago hen it continued spitting out big numbers for 2nd half of the storm when rest of the big Boys GFS/Euro did not..None of the models are infallible. Yes this looks to be very very convective so theoretically the nam should handle this well- you cant just toss it but i would like to see support esp from the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Nam lead the way with the Quasi Norlun Trough a few weeks ago hen it continued spitting out big numbers for 2nd half of the storm when rest of the big Boys GFS/Euro did not..None of the models are infallible. Please, remember what the NAM printed out for the first half of the storm for a good 48 hrs? Anyway, I'm def not here to argue about our model guidance. I just think there are much better models to use then the NAM right now...(not that any of them have been great this winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 Up here in eastern sne the rgem/ggem have been as useful as even the euro. The CMC stuff has been bumping north. If the rgem follows this run game on for you guys. Fun system. Changes in the nam were immediate. By 6-9 hours it looked nothing like any earlier run to the northeast. Either it got some bad data or something tonight got initialized well for the first time. We will soon find out Agreed...not time to call anything off yet. The RGEM at 18z was tucked in and you can see the higher resolution data is more aggressive with the PVA as the vort max hits the coast. Yes it's alot about the confluent flow and wave spacing.. but the global models are also shunting off the best PVA east out to sea..the Canadian OP was a great example. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Please, remember what the NAM printed out for the first half of the storm for a good 48 hrs? Anyway, I'm def not here to argue about our model guidance. I just think there sre much better models to use then the NAM right now...(now that any of them have been great this winter) Actually the bands on the 4k stayed off the LI coast which is exactly what happened. As for the NAM it was only off by 75 miles with the bands, the GFS for example was 100 miles south of where they ended up. The bottom line was all the models had massive problems with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Agreed...not time to call anything off yet. The RGEM at 18z was tucked in and you can see the higher resolution data is more aggressive with the PVA as the vort max hits the coast. Yes it's alot about the confluent flow and wave spacing.. but the global models are also shunting off the best PVA east out to sea..the Canadian OP was a great example. We'll see... Million dollar question do you buy what the NAM and it's 4km version are selling? Your knowledge of this science becomes valuable at this very moment when the NAM may be onto something or is about to trick us all again. What do you think is the likely outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hi Res Nam snowmap shows near 12 inches for NYC and more in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Agreed...not time to call anything off yet. The RGEM at 18z was tucked in and you can see the higher resolution data is more aggressive with the PVA as the vort max hits the coast. Yes it's alot about the confluent flow and wave spacing.. but the global models are also shunting off the best PVA east out to sea..the Canadian OP was a great example. We'll see... Our guys have mostly given up on this one was reading your comments as it came in. Right away the NAM put more focus further east in that first spoke up to our NE. It then focuses more on a trailing piece so in the end the confluence over us shifted a bit. When you look at the 18z RGEM, not a huge difference there from the 0z NAM and remember the NCEP diagnostic earlier. NAM/Euro were similar with a stronger s/w in the south, NAM/CMC more similar up to the north. Both the RGEM 18z and NAM 0z were pointing at a pretty good dumping right around NYC. I'd put the RGEM and actually the GGEM right up there with the Euro this winter just from personal experience here. I hope the RGEM comes north. It's initializing the first spoke further east closer to the old ULL, kind of similar to the NAM so let's see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hi Res Nam snowmap shows near 12 inches for NYC and more in the interior. wb western li? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 wb western li? Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The most interesting model of all to me has been the JMA it has not budged much at all since 192 hrs, being a bit hit on every single run for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 Our guys have mostly given up on this one was reading your comments as it came in. Right away the NAM put more focus further east in that first spoke up to our NE. It then focuses more on a trailing piece so in the end the confluence over us shifted a bit. When you look at the 18z RGEM, not a huge difference there from the 0z NAM and remember the NCEP diagnostic earlier. NAM/Euro were similar with a stronger s/w in the south, NAM/CMC more similar up to the north. Both the RGEM 18z and NAM 0z were pointing at a pretty good dumping right around NYC. I'd put the RGEM and actually the GGEM right up there with the Euro this winter just from personal experience here. I hope the RGEM comes north. It's initializing the first spoke further east closer to the old ULL, kind of similar to the NAM so let's see where this goes. It'll be tougher to get it up past BDR i think. I agree with your ideas that it still has room and time to tick northwest. No use in giving up especially in this area when we're a small nuance away from a bomb type solution. The NAM trended 50 miles north with the confluent shortwave over New England almost immediately through 24 hours. The differences with the main vort max over the Central US were pretty negligible. But that last spoke driving south towards New England from the ULL concerns me. I would think the Euro is less prone to mishandle that feature. I don't really know to be honest. This will come down to the wire here. The Euro doesn't have to necessarily be "wrong". It just has to adjust a slight nuance in the height field to show a bigger solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The most interesting model of all to me has been the JMA it has not budged much at all since 192 hrs, being a bit hit on every single run for our area. Did tonights JMA come out yet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 It'll be tougher to get it up past BDR i think. I agree with your ideas that it still has room and time to tick northwest. No use in giving up especially in this area when we're a small nuance away from a bomb type solution. The NAM trended 50 miles north with the confluent shortwave over New England almost immediately through 24 hours. The differences with the main vort max over the Central US were pretty negligible. But that last spoke driving south towards New England from the ULL concerns me. I would think the Euro is less prone to mishandle that feature. I don't really know to be honest. This will come down to the wire here. The Euro doesn't have to necessarily be "wrong". It just has to adjust a slight nuance in the height field to show a bigger solution. To me through 24 the RGEM...looks like the confluence is a bit further NE than the last run (main run at 12z). You can see right away it's weaker on the western side with the old ULL to the northeast of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Did tonights JMA come out yet ? No, but here is the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 To me through 24 the RGEM...looks like the confluence is a bit further NE than the last run (main run at 12z). You can see right away it's weaker on the western side with the old ULL to the northeast of us. Where are you guys getting the RGEM right now? Link please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 RGEM has a 984 low heading towards the benchmarkhttp://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Earth and Rollo. Please keep up your excellent discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 For perspective, since 1950 there have been 28 storms that produced accumulating snowfall in New York City in the March 24-April 30 timeframe. The accumulations were as follows: < 1": 50% 1" or more: 50% 2" or more: 29% 4" or more: 18% 6" or more: 4% 8" or more: 4% Given those numbers, I would like to see the GFS, ECMWF, and/or GGEM show a large solution and lock into it before being very confident in a blockbuster snowfall. The NAM, alone, which hasn't shown great run-to-run continuity is not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 For perspective, since 1950 there have been 28 storms that produced accumulating snowfall in New York City in the March 24-April 30 timeframe. The accumulations were as follows: < 1": 50% 1" or more: 50% 2" or more: 29% 4" or more: 18% 6" or more: 4% 8" or more: 4% Given those numbers, I would like to see the GFS, ECMWF, and/or GGEM show a large solution and lock into it before being very confident in a blockbuster snowfall. The NAM, alone, which hasn't shown great run-to-run continuity is not enough. The JMA has been showing what the NAM is showing every single run since 192 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Where are you guys getting the RGEM right now? Link please. It's up on the main Canadian gov site through 48 10mm + into NYC and LI. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 It's up on the main Canadian gov site through 48 10mm + into NYC and LI. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Not as good as the Nam but still impressive amounts for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 RGEM H48 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Looks like between 10mm - 25MM (nw to se) About 0.50 - 0.75 upto NYC over an ince along the jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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