FreeRain Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 go look at the record books and tell me how many storms produced the snowfall ( over 6 inches ) the NAM was advertising up until the last run in late March in NYC and report back If it's a hit to our south then your this-time-of-year comment doesn't apply. I think that was the other poster's point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Slightly less confluence will do the trick for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Not the point. A suppressed system that hits areas south of here is even less likely in March...so your point that this storm wasnt going to happen because its late March literally makes no sense. The storm didnt go away, its suppressed. each NAM run the last few days has made no sense - its either one extreme or the other - goes from a bomb over the metro for many runs in a row and all of a sudden too far southeast - thats why it is an outlier - also very rare to get a snow event in the immediate NYC metro over 6 inches this late in March - check out Uptons archives.............this event will be another forgettable one with most of the snow that manages to fall in the immediate Metro melting when it hits the ground with temps closer to 40 .............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 go look at the record books and tell me how many storms produced the snowfall ( over 6 inches ) the NAM was advertising up until the last run in late March in NYC and report back ge it isnt late march that is stopping this storm, it is too strong of a block.i could make the same statement for PHL and they get hammered as per the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Rgem looks amped with the low close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The low on the NAM gets about to Ocean City, MD's latitude and then gets shunted due east. Last run got up to Atlantic City's latitude before kicking it east. That's a good 50-75 mile shift south in one run. Just goes to show you what a putrid model the NAM is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 it isnt late march that is stopping this storm, it is too strong of a block.i could make the same statement for PHL and they get hammered as per the NAM. whats the ratio's going to be down there if the NAM verifies ? Point being with temps so warm sun angle much higher and longer days accumulation is difficult during the day thats one reason why storms over 6 inches are few and far between anywhere along I -95 this time of year block or no block - need the cold arctic high to the north with closer to freezing temps ............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Will you guys stop with the NAM losing the storm etc The12z run at 57 hrs had the SLP is East of AC down to 988 at 18z hour 51 its 50 - 75 mile east but down to 984 .... ITS 4 MB`S stronger , its only a 50 mile correction and the issue isnt the dam center its the confluence The solution is 50 miles further south , not 200 miles furthr south So instead of White Plains getting an inch of liquid , its down over Sandy Hook . its not like its over AC . The difference the measurement of the ULL if its 75 miles north you get 6 inches , 75 miles south go claim victory . Just please know what you are looking at . "Time of year " means nothing - a foot of snow fell in april 1982 Maybe its once every 30 years . But these are the set ups if its goin to happen april 1982 the midday temp at CPK was 29 , it theres an inch of liquid through you`re area with minus 5 air at 850 - its goin to 32 , its not snowing around 40 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Will you guys stop with the NAM losing the storm etc The12z run at 57 hrs had the SLP is East of AC down to 988 at 18z hour 51 its 50 - 75 mile east but down to 984 .... ITS 4 MB`S stronger , its only a 50 mile correction and the issue isnt the dam center its the confluence The solution is 50 miles further south , not 200 miles furthr south So instead of White Plains getting an inch of liquid , its down over Sandy Hook . its not like its over AC . The difference the measurement of the ULL if its 75 miles north you get 6 inches , 75 miles south go claim victory . Just please know what you are looking at . "Time of year " means nothing - a foot of snow fell in april 1982 Maybe its once every 30 years . But these are the set ups if its goin to happen april 1982 the midday temp at CPK was 29 , it theres an inch of liquid through you`re area with minus 5 air at 850 - its goin to 32 , its not snowing around 40 . temps are progged to be close to 40 or low 40's monday - this system is not nearly as cold as 1982 - thats why you need a high intensity system like the NAM was advertising to accumulate which is looking less and less likely in the NYC metro ........here is 1982 at newark - very cold arctic air was moving in - this time around the arctic air is not in the equation http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1982/4/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'll laugh when the models shift north tonite when everyone says its over, that always happens. Models have been flopping around way too much as we get closer and being 48 hrs or so out is still a lot of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 RGEM is tucked in right along the New Jersey coast at 48 hours. Again, as discussed on Page 1 of the thread, we'll be tracking the lead vort max as it traces out of the trough base over the Mid Atlantic States. The NAM and RGEM as well as the SREF all agree that the wave spacing will be just barely sufficient to allow this feature to go north-east and the surface low can develop tucked in along the coast. The GFS and ECMWF are not enthused with that development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 GFS is way north and west of the 12z run through 48 hours. Entire precipitation shield is well north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Lol.. now the gfs is well north of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Surface low has moved northwest by about 50-75 miles on this run. You can't script this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 This is unbelievable. I'm actually ok writing this threat off. But can we just be over it already? The rgem now GFS sucker us back in. The GFS is literally 25 miles away from being a much bigger event for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 0.75" kissing the South Shore of LI on the GFS...very similar to the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I don't understand how people can already write this off when very subtle run to run changes could easily produce a huge storm, the line is too thin to ignore whether we will or won't get a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 .75 back up to NYC again. RGEM looks love worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Check out the amazing signal on the 42 hour RGEM at h5 -- classic signal for a coastal bomb that tucks in near the New Jersey coast. Man, it would be a real treat if these mesoscale models were correct...this would feature some extremely impressive deformation banding. The RGEM has a classic signal with the 700 hPa vertical motion as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 temps are progged to be close to 40 or low 40's monday - this system is not nearly as cold as 1982 - thats why you need a high intensity system like the NAM was advertising to accumulate which is looking less and less likely in the NYC metro ........ The morning of the blizzard in 1982 it was in low 40`s in the park at 9 am ( cant find the dam print out ) goin off memory with light rain fallin with a ESE east wind that system didnt crash into a cold air mass . We were able to get to 29 during the day because of the deepening of that system aloft , just like this one is advertised to do . If you are under an inch of liquid with 850`s at minus 5 and the center is East of AC at 984 , you will not be at 40 degrees . Now are we gona be an inch of liquid , thats the question , just not sun angle or time of year . uncle are you around , can you find it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The morning of the blizzard in 1982 it was in low 40`s in the park at 9 am ( cant find the dam print out ) goin off memory with light rain fallin with a ESE east wind that system didnt crash into a cold air mass . We were able to get to 29 during the day because of the deepening of that system aloft , just like this one is advertised to do . If you are under an inch of liquid with 850`s at minus 5 and the center is East of AC at 984 , you will not be at 40 degrees . Now are we gona be an inch of liquid , thats the question , just not sun angle or time of year . uncle are you around , can you find it ? explain to me how we got down to the high teens at the tale end of the storm http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1982/4/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Has anyone else noticed for the past 48 hours the 18z and 6 z have been north while the 0 and 12z are south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The morning of the blizzard in 1982 it was in low 40`s in the park at 9 am ( cant find the dam print out ) goin off memory with light rain fallin with a ESE east wind that system didnt crash into a cold air mass . We were able to get to 29 during the day because of the deepening of that system aloft , just like this one is advertised to do . If you are under an inch of liquid with 850`s at minus 5 and the center is East of AC at 984 , you will not be at 40 degrees . Now are we gona be an inch of liquid , thats the question , just not sun angle or time of year . uncle are you around , can you find it ? http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/1982/4/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA no comparison. temps were just above freezing and well down into the 20s during the heaviest snow during the middle of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/1982/4/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA no comparison. temps were just above freezing and well down into the 20s during the heaviest snow during the middle of the day. agree 100 % arctic air was close by and got involved in the storm rapidly - this time around we are dealing with marginally cold leftover airmass - chances of over 6 inches in the immediate metro are not great.......... a coating to 3 sloppy inches is the way to go because of lower then 10 :1 ratios - closer to 5 :1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Looking at the bufkit warehouse (nam) , temps start around 37 and drop to 32 within 3 hrs as heavy precip is moving in.This is for coastal monmouth county... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The south trend on the models today, may be in response to strengthening confluence zone over the Northern Mid-Atlantic now. As this starts relaxing tomorrow afternoon and night, the models may trend back north again : http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/anim8wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 explain to me how we got down to the high teens at the tale end of the storm http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1982/4/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Huh. A cold air mass came in after system came by. There was deep snow cover. There was a ft of snow around the area. And it was april. Itwas 42 the morning of the storm. It wasnt in the teens the day before. Temps fall under dynamics if they exist. Thnl they r present in cnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 To all the non mets while its great to be involved to make general statements about possible accumilations either for or against is preposterous when it isnt backed up by storm specific facts. The fact is that a Storm forming off the BM and tracking perfectly and deepening can and will dump on CPK if we are in the CCB. To claim to know that its coming this far north or not on 1 model run from any forecast model is silly , non helpful, and doesnt aid the educational process for all. Lets all calm down and learn from one another. Above all enjoy the process, thats the fun involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 If NYC gets into the Cbb, we can see significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 To all the non mets while its great to be involved to make general statements about possible accumilations either for or against is preposterous when it isnt backed up by storm specific facts. The fact is that a Storm forming off the BM and tracking perfectly and deepening can and will dump on CPK if we are in the CCB. To claim to know that its coming this far north or not on 1 model run from any forecast model is silly , non helpful, and doesnt aid the educational process for all. Lets all calm down and learn from one another. Above all enjoy the process, thats the fun involved. No, climo has a lot to do with accumulations as well. The storm can't change the angle of the sun and the length of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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