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March 24-25 Potential Bomb Part Deux

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

And most mets..........[/quote

Stop. He bought it 4 days ago. Everyone came around sat at 12 z. Not close.

It was thrs nite so it was 5 days. It got to 195. I thought it had a chance to get to i 80. That was tge difference

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

As we thought.

 

Even my coating to an inch call for the immediate area around the city and Long Island is busting.

 

It's neat how the CPC 6-10 day analog tool had 2-6-10 as a top analog over a week ago. We always run the risk

of too much suppression when there are such extreme blocks in place. But the longer the blocking lasts, the better

our chances are of putting together snow especially when it's colder during the heart of the winter. We quickly forgot

the OTS solutions we had to go through before we got the epic streak of snowstorms from Boxing Day

to the end of January 2011. Even though we missed out on 2-6-10, we still set the record for the snowiest February

since we got so many opportunities due to the record blocking that month.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

I'm not enjoying a nice warm sunny Spring so that I can experience cold, raw and cloudy Spring.   I'm done with this show,  give me warm and sunny.

 

:sizzle:

 

This is the kind of pattern that finds a way to disappoint both the snowlovers and people hoping for a quick change to spring.

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earthlight

earthlight

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This is the kind of pattern that finds a way to disappoint both the snowlovers and people hoping for a quick change to spring.

 

A few weeks ago I was grilled pretty hard for saying it was "only a matter of time" before there was a winter storm threat in a pattern like the one being advertised. Turns out we got a legit threat which nearly produced a CCB-bomb...but ended up slipping through our fingers at the last moment. 

 

A few things working against us in this pattern included the confluent flow and poor wave spacing. This threat wouldn't have been a bombin January either..I think that's a misconception running around in this forum today. 

 

I had a bad feeling we'd be dealing with a very sharp precipitation cutoff near our area around 5-7 days ago...when you put together the historically negative AO and extreme high latitude blocking with the departing ULL...the writing was on the wall. 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

A few weeks ago I was grilled pretty hard for saying it was "only a matter of time" before there was a winter storm threat in a pattern like the one being advertised. Turns out we got a legit threat which nearly produced a CCB-bomb...but ended up slipping through our fingers at the last moment. 

 

A few things working against us in this pattern included the confluent flow and poor wave spacing. This threat wouldn't have been a bombin January either..I think that's a misconception running around in this forum today. 

 

I had a bad feeling we'd be dealing with a very sharp precipitation cutoff near our area around 5-7 days ago...when you put together the historically negative AO and extreme high latitude blocking with the departing ULL...the writing was on the wall. 

 

I can remember us talking about this last week. I really don't understand why anyone would want to

grill you or someone else for pattern recognition of long range forecast teleconnections. Some

people make the incorrect assumption that a major East Coast storm threat must translate

into a blockbuster snow threat here or else it's a bust. It's a huge victory for computer modeling

for us to even be able to identify a window of opportunity for a storm from 6-10 days out. The best

that we can ask for from that far away is just to have the opportunity for a storm along the East Coast.

We were discussing the suppression risk in this set up and the Euro confirmed our suspicions. 

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CTWeatherFreak

CTWeatherFreak

Posted
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I can remember us talking about this last week. I really don't understand why anyone would want to

grill you or someone else for pattern recognition of long range forecast teleconnections. Some

people make the incorrect assumption that a major East Coast storm threat must translate

into a blockbuster snow threat here or else it's a bust. It's a huge victory for computer modeling

for us to even be able to identify a window of opportunity for a storm from 6-10 days out. The best

that we can ask for from that far away is just to have the opportunity for a storm along the East Coast.

We were discussing the suppression risk in this set up and the Euro confirmed our suspicions. 

 

This!!     

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
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This setup today really shows the difference between blocking with a high pressure system to the north and blocking because of an ULL system. At least with high pressure in place we would have gotten some CAD filtering into the area providing a fresh source of cold air. In this scenario, most of the atmosphere was below freezing but the BL torched. I doubt it would have made any difference for us, but it could have made a huge difference for the Mid-Atlantic folks.

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

This setup today really shows the difference between blocking with a high pressure system to the north and blocking because of an ULL system. At least with high pressure in place we would have gotten some CAD filtering into the area providing a fresh source of cold air. In this scenario, most of the atmosphere was below freezing but the BL torched. I doubt it would have made any difference for us, but it could have made a huge difference for the Mid-Atlantic folks.

Yep, it really goes to show that you don't stay frozen just because you are "well inside the blue lines" !

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CTWeatherFreak

CTWeatherFreak

Posted
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What was the difference between this ULL and a true 50/50?  I mean, the location looks about right, it did its job to help hold the cold air in and, along with the record NAO, helped keep the storm from ever being  a cutter, etc, etc.  Ie, it behaved like a 50/50.  So was the problem the 50/50, or the record breaking AO?

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

A few weeks ago I was grilled pretty hard for saying it was "only a matter of time" before there was a winter storm threat in a pattern like the one being advertised. Turns out we got a legit threat which nearly produced a CCB-bomb...but ended up slipping through our fingers at the last moment.

A few things working against us in this pattern included the confluent flow and poor wave spacing. This threat wouldn't have been a bombin January either..I think that's a misconception running around in this forum today.

I had a bad feeling we'd be dealing with a very sharp precipitation cutoff near our area around 5-7 days ago...when you put together the historically negative AO and extreme high latitude blocking with the departing ULL...the writing was on the wall.

Great work John. As usually the doubters are absent for the storm.

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FreeRain

FreeRain

Posted
Posted

This setup today really shows the difference between blocking with a high pressure system to the north and blocking because of an ULL system. At least with high pressure in place we would have gotten some CAD filtering into the area providing a fresh source of cold air. In this scenario, most of the atmosphere was below freezing but the BL torched. I doubt it would have made any difference for us, but it could have made a huge difference for the Mid-Atlantic folks.

 

Yup, a stale NNE wind courtesy of the ULL was a big problem. Probably as big a problem as the confluence.  Especially since we may wind up with ~0.5" of precip which is about twice as much as the Euro predicted.

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Guest Patrick

Guest Patrick

Posted
Posted

A couple weeks back when John said "confluence" I figured I wouldn't see a flake out of this.  And to the point about this not being a bomb in January either...an argument can be made (I think) that if we had the same setup in January the drier air might have made it even further south... just my two cents. 

Great work John. As usually the doubters are absent for the storm.

 

 

A few weeks ago I was grilled pretty hard for saying it was "only a matter of time" before there was a winter storm threat in a pattern like the one being advertised. Turns out we got a legit threat which nearly produced a CCB-bomb...but ended up slipping through our fingers at the last moment. 

 

A few things working against us in this pattern included the confluent flow and poor wave spacing. This threat wouldn't have been a bombin January either..I think that's a misconception running around in this forum today. 

 

I had a bad feeling we'd be dealing with a very sharp precipitation cutoff near our area around 5-7 days ago...when you put together the historically negative AO and extreme high latitude blocking with the departing ULL...the writing was on the wall. 

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