IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The 12z Euro is about another 0.25"+ for everyone. Nothing earth shattering. I think it may have initialized the current precip to be a tad further north than it actually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 totally agree and not sure why you get so much flak on this board. Never understand that this board has a double standard in not allowing people to speak their mind if they are not onboard with big snow dumps all the time and allows posters to gang up on others. By and large the weenies generally end up wrong but they keep going up to their old tricks and totally ignore how many times they have been wrong about stuff. Thank you! There is a definitive double standard, specifically in THIS subforum. If you spend enough time in the S NE thread, which I do, you will see how a thread should be run. This is NOT to say there arent quality posters here, Earthlight, JM, Bluewave, Don, Sacrus and a few mets (and others) really know their stuff...but by and large is a group of HS and early college kids running wild. The fact that this cant be an open forum for all to speak their minds is a joke....but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Does anyone know why Mt. Holly is sticking with WW Advisories for just about all of Central/North Jersey for 2-4" of snow this afternoon? I asked this question in the Philly and NYC obs threads, but no answers. Maybe the coastal storm intensifying will throw back accumulating snow on us, but I'm very skeptical, especially since the NWS in NYC discontinued the WWAdvisories for SI/Union/Essex/Hudson/NYC/LI etc. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ116 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013...LATE MARCH SNOWSTORM IN PROGRESS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES....LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYINGAS SLOWLY MOVES OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF CAPE COD TONIGHT.NJZ008>010-012-013-015-PAZ105-106-260130-/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-130326T0400Z/MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN116 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDTTONIGHT...* LOCATIONS...BUCKS COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA... AS WELL AS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.* HAZARD TYPE...SNOW.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HALF OF THAT SLUSHY AMOUNT ON UNTREATED PAVED SURFACES.http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ012&warncounty=NJC023&firewxzone=NJZ012&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The HRRR keeps insisting that 35dbz+ echos are going to make it as far NW as 287. I just don't see it happening. The current radar looks pretty awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Does anyone know why Mt. Holly is sticking with WW Advisories for just about all of Central/North Jersey for 2-4" of snow this afternoon? I asked this question in the Philly and NYC obs threads, but no answers. Maybe the coastal storm intensifying will throw back accumulating snow on us, but I'm very skeptical, especially since the NWS in NYC discontinued the WWAdvisories for SI/Union/Essex/Hudson/NYC/LI etc. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 116 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013 ...LATE MARCH SNOWSTORM IN PROGRESS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... .LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS SLOWLY MOVES OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF CAPE COD TONIGHT. NJZ008>010-012-013-015-PAZ105-106-260130- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-130326T0400Z/ MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER- UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...CHALFONT...PERKASIE... MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 116 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... * LOCATIONS...BUCKS COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA... AS WELL AS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPE...SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HALF OF THAT SLUSHY AMOUNT ON UNTREATED PAVED SURFACES. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ012&warncounty=NJC023&firewxzone=NJZ012&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory For one, two different offices. If you're to believe some of the short term high res models the stuff down south will brush the area for a couple hours late this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Maybe you should go back and read the nonsense you were posting for the earlier February snow storm which was our biggest of the winter. When the NAM and GFS came in different than the Euro a day or so before the event while the Euro held firm, you ripped everyone and anyone who dismissed the NAM and GFS in favor of the Euro. It can't be one way over the other, if you don't want to be viewed as a snow hating hypocrite, take your own advice. All guidance should be taken into account with a lean towards the models that historically perform best in similar setups. LOL - I have never dissed the euro, but nice try you must be confusing me with Snow88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 More pressure falls once again north of the storm, precip inching northward on radar. Looks like the center is making its closest approach to the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The HRRR keeps insisting that 35dbz+ echos are going to make it as far NW as 287. I just don't see it happening. The current radar looks pretty awful. A lot of times I just ignore that model-it was too aggressive with a number of storms this winter. It's looking like the snow is having a really tough time getting north of I-195. The light drizzly crap we have now might be all we're getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Here to your south we only got a trace to less then an inch...the further south you go the numbers go up..Chester cty etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 More pressure falls once again north of the storm, precip inching northward on radar. Looks like the center is making its closest approach to the area inching north? looks exact opposite http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Yep, just very light drizzle in freehold..I doubt that band get's any farther north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Does anyone know why Mt. Holly is sticking with WW Advisories for just about all of Central/North Jersey for 2-4" of snow this afternoon? I asked this question in the Philly and NYC obs threads, but no answers. Maybe the coastal storm intensifying will throw back accumulating snow on us, but I'm very skeptical, especially since the NWS in NYC discontinued the WWAdvisories for SI/Union/Essex/Hudson/NYC/LI etc. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 116 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013 ...LATE MARCH SNOWSTORM IN PROGRESS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... .LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS SLOWLY MOVES OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF CAPE COD TONIGHT. NJZ008>010-012-013-015-PAZ105-106-260130- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-130326T0400Z/ MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER- UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...CHALFONT...PERKASIE... MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 116 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... * LOCATIONS...BUCKS COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA... AS WELL AS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPE...SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HALF OF THAT SLUSHY AMOUNT ON UNTREATED PAVED SURFACES. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ012&warncounty=NJC023&firewxzone=NJZ012&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory probably just playing it safe so for some odd reason it does snow they do not get caught with their pants down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Dollars to donuts - the majority of the denizens in this subforum will dismiss the euro if it doesnt show the desired solution, first opportunity. Live and learn.... Yep. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 LOL - I have never dissed the euro, but nice try you must be confusing me with Snow88 I know Snow88, wasn't him, he wouldn't bash the snowier solution (Euro at the time). You were a part of it with others during that February storm. The minute the NAM and GFS were less snowy, everyone came out of the woodwork saying how the Euro is on it's own and is likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I know Snow88, wasn't him, he wouldn't bash the snowier solution (Euro at the time). You were a part of it with others during that February storm. The minute the NAM and GFS were less snowy, everyone came out of the woodwork saying how the Euro is on it's own and is likely wrong. If I remember correctly, most people were dismissing the GFS and the NAM because it wasn't handling the storm well while the Euro was handling it well. The NAM snow amounts were just unbelievable. I think most snow weenies were rooting for the Euro. Bottom line, they'll stick with the snowiest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Some tips for next winter..give Euro the respect it deserves as the king..it wins again.Why even look at the other models?..also for the tropical season this year..don't get carried away with the GFS or the Canadian showing a 950 hurricane coming up the coast..UNLESS Euro is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Some tips for next winter..give Euro the respect it deserves as the king..it wins again.Why even look at the other models?..also for the tropical season this year..don't get carried away with the GFS or the Canadian showing a 950 hurricane coming up the coast..UNLESS Euro is on board I don't think we shouldn't look at other models. The Euro has been wrong sometimes and absolutely schooled by NCEP guidance. I.e. Tropical Storm Debby. However, the Euro has schooled the NCEP models more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Well the radar is starting to fill in a little more on the northern edge. Not really advancing northward, just filling in. Hey.....the 12z JMA still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Well the radar is starting to fill in a little more on the northern edge. Not really advancing northward, just filling in. Hey.....the 12z JMA still looks good Hopefully everyone knows now that the JMA is a joke of a model. I give it about as much weight as the NOGAPS. The NAVGEM didn't do well either, and the GGEM was too amped until a few runs ago. The Euro was never that enthused about a big impact here and it's going to be right. GFS also wasn't too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Well the radar is starting to fill in a little more on the northern edge. Not really advancing northward, just filling in. Hey.....the 12z JMA still looks good now divide by 5 and youll get your totals.. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 So much more has to be taken into account when forecasting a winter storm via computer guidance. This is where experience and having insight into one's biases and tendencies play a key role. Ignoring climo is also a big mistake as well as applying past single events to upcoming events as a means of prediction. The writing was on the wall days ago as many dismissed surface temps in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Well....all advisories north I-195 have been dropped. The warnings down south have been coverted to advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Question: Do most of you believe, historically when there is a "good" pattern it produces or doesnt for OUR AREA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Hopefully everyone knows now that the JMA is a joke of a model. I give it about as much weight as the NOGAPS. The NAVGEM didn't do well either, and the GGEM was too amped until a few runs ago. The Euro was never that enthused about a big impact here and it's going to be right. GFS also wasn't too bad. Why didnt the Navgem do well? It's been rock steady for the past 3 days with regards to precip. It never showed more then .50" for NYC. And most runs it was showing about .25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 So much more has to be taken into account when forecasting a winter storm via computer guidance. This is where experience and having insight into one's biases and tendencies play a key role. Ignoring climo is also a big mistake as well as applying past single events to upcoming events as a means of prediction. The writing was on the wall days ago as many dismissed surface temps in late March. Or you can just look at the euro which has NAILED this event. A multi million dollar computer which processes millions of bits of info per minute is much better then any meteorologist. Sorry. If this were 1985, then yes. But not in today's modern world. Most meteorologists that bust with their short term forecasting are mainly because they didnt use the euro/rgem combo. Inside of 24 hours that combo is nearly 100% accurate when they match. Inside of 72 hours, only the euro is a useful model, 90% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Kudos to john 4 days ago. He bought the confluence i didnt. I nvr go against the euro but thought it had a chance to adjust like on march 8 the 75 miles difference made the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 How much precip did the Euro have for CNJ? Already up to 0.40" in Monmouth County and snow has resumed, moderate in intensity. Temp down to 34.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Kudos to john 4 days ago. He bought the confluence i didnt. I nvr go against the euro but thought it had a chance to adjust like on march 8 the 75 miles difference made the forecast. March 8th was different. Models were missing a very important lakes vort that was not being sampled until inside of 3 days. Once the euro picked up the lakes vort, it correctly picked up the ineteraction of that vort with the out to sea main coastal and threw back precip to Boston and created a huge inverted trough for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 How much precip did the Euro have for CNJ? Already up to 0.40" in Monmouth County and snow has resumed, moderate in intensity. Temp down to 34.8. 0z euro had about .40"-.50" for Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Crazy bookend season for places impacted by Sandy's snow at the end of October. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PBZ&product=PNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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