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March 24-25 Potential Bomb Part Deux


earthlight

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Had a feeling the radar today would be painful to watch. If anything the snow's being forced back south. We need another push north or we get little more than what we already have. The CT coast might actually just get zero.

This really should be no surprise. This has been pretty much locked in since the 12z runs yesterday. Light to moderate snow with temps in the mid-upper 30's is not going to get the job done in late March.

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Based on my obs here in Brooklyn. It won't accumulate anywhere during daytime if temps are above freezing.

Temps are dropping down to 36 now from 40 earlier we just need steady snow and it'll start sticking, my brotherinlaw in Lakewood nj has a good inch on all surfaces with 33-34 out there.

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Not only is the precip being shunted south but it's also breaking up over Central NJ and off the coast. This was forecasted well by the high res NAM simulated radars as the over running precip from primary in the lakes is ending and the coastal takes over. The beginning stages of the deformation banding are underway now off the Delmarva coast. I think we'll know by about 2-3 if we're going to see anything significant.

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Upton's latest

 

 


...LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...

WET SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION THOUGH THE LUNCH HOUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND START TO ACCUMULATE.

SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...ROADWAYS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BECOME SNOW COVERED. A SLUSHY INCH OR SO IS EXPECTED ON GRASSY AND COLDER SURFACES.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IF THIS WERE TO MOVE NORTH...SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW
COULD OCCUR ON LONG ISLAND.

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Not only is the precip being shunted south but it's also breaking up over Central NJ and off the coast. This was forecasted well by the high res NAM simulated radars as the over running precip from primary in the lakes is ending and the coastal takes over. The beginning stages of the deformation banding are underway now off the Delmarva coast. I think we'll know by about 2-3 if we're going to see anything significant.

Yeah I can see the echoes actually weakening, this is annoying it's soo close but just might not deliver...

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Good news from the 12z GFS, it didn't make another shift southeastward with the precip shield. Still keeps the heart of the precip well offshore though. Looks like the 0.50" line kisses the city and the 0.25"+ line makes it about as far north as KMMU, hard to tell though based on the maps I'm looking at.

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Perhaps you should check the Philly observation thread. Several posters are already reporting in excess of 3 and 4" on the ground in PA with pictures to back it up.

They will not get another 2-3 inches. The intensity rates down there are now disintegrating. It's over for everyone.

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Yeah I can see the echoes actually weakening, this is annoying it's soo close but just might not deliver...

Those echoes were not translating as impressively as you'd think. Several folks in the strongest echoes only saw light snow. It was high reflectivity light non-accumulating snow for most.

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They will not get another 2-3 inches. The intensity rates down there are now disintegrating. It's over for everyone.

Over for everyone? Have you actually checked the radar out of Ft. Dix? Many reports of Heavy snow west and northwest of AC

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=dix&loop=yes

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Whatever dude, let it fully playout before you start calling it over for everyone. The high res simulated radars show very impressive banding setting up right along the coast and just southeast of the city.

With the surface remaining above freezing the entire time a sloppy additional inch would be a miracle in and around NYC and Philly metro all the way down to southern Jersey.

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They will not get another 2-3 inches. The intensity rates down there are now disintegrating. It's over for everyone.

No it's not, not even close. The snow will get and stay heavy over the southern half of NJ as the coastal low takes over and develops a comma-head band there. The question is how much further north that can make it-if that band hits at least NYC and Long Island or stays offshore.

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No it's not, not even close. The snow will get and stay heavy over the southern half of NJ as the coastal low takes over and develops a comma-head band there. The question is how much further north that can make it-if that band hits at least NYC and Long Island or stays offshore.

Was talking about Philly metro mainly. It's a fair call to keep extreme southeastern Jersey alive though. Hey if the banding needed for anything of note for most here comes more NW than expected, then I will gladly eat crow.

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NYC thread? RAP gets that banding so damn close

Same on many models. Newest NAM total snow kicks everyone north of Route 1 in the gut including the 5 boroughs. Long Island gets a little love. Newest RGEM snow map hates us all.

 

RGEM:

SN_000-048_0000.gif

 

NAM:

SN_000-048_0000.gif

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