IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I doubt anyone gets over 6 inches from this storm around here. Someone in southern Monmouth County or Suffolk County might if the NAM is correct, but those areas are on the outskirts of this sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I doubt anyone gets over 6 inches from this storm around here. No one in the entire state of New Jersey, NY and PA will get that. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Had a feeling the radar today would be painful to watch. If anything the snow's being forced back south. We need another push north or we get little more than what we already have. The CT coast might actually just get zero. This really should be no surprise. This has been pretty much locked in since the 12z runs yesterday. Light to moderate snow with temps in the mid-upper 30's is not going to get the job done in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Based on my obs here in Brooklyn. It won't accumulate anywhere during daytime if temps are above freezing. Temps are dropping down to 36 now from 40 earlier we just need steady snow and it'll start sticking, my brotherinlaw in Lakewood nj has a good inch on all surfaces with 33-34 out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Not only is the precip being shunted south but it's also breaking up over Central NJ and off the coast. This was forecasted well by the high res NAM simulated radars as the over running precip from primary in the lakes is ending and the coastal takes over. The beginning stages of the deformation banding are underway now off the Delmarva coast. I think we'll know by about 2-3 if we're going to see anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 No one in the entire state of New Jersey, NY and PA will get that. Book it. Perhaps you should check the Philly observation thread. Several posters are already reporting in excess of 3 and 4" on the ground in PA with pictures to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Upton's latest ...LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WET SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION THOUGH THE LUNCH HOUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND START TO ACCUMULATE.SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...ROADWAYS ARE NOTFORECAST TO BECOME SNOW COVERED. A SLUSHY INCH OR SO IS EXPECTED ON GRASSY AND COLDER SURFACES.THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAINJUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THISEVENING. IF THIS WERE TO MOVE NORTH...SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOWCOULD OCCUR ON LONG ISLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Borderline heavy snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Not only is the precip being shunted south but it's also breaking up over Central NJ and off the coast. This was forecasted well by the high res NAM simulated radars as the over running precip from primary in the lakes is ending and the coastal takes over. The beginning stages of the deformation banding are underway now off the Delmarva coast. I think we'll know by about 2-3 if we're going to see anything significant. Yeah I can see the echoes actually weakening, this is annoying it's soo close but just might not deliver... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Good news from the 12z GFS, it didn't make another shift southeastward with the precip shield. Still keeps the heart of the precip well offshore though. Looks like the 0.50" line kisses the city and the 0.25"+ line makes it about as far north as KMMU, hard to tell though based on the maps I'm looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Perhaps you should check the Philly observation thread. Several posters are already reporting in excess of 3 and 4" on the ground in PA with pictures to back it up. They will not get another 2-3 inches. The intensity rates down there are now disintegrating. It's over for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Latest HRRR, very slight improvements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Yeah I can see the echoes actually weakening, this is annoying it's soo close but just might not deliver... Those echoes were not translating as impressively as you'd think. Several folks in the strongest echoes only saw light snow. It was high reflectivity light non-accumulating snow for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 They will not get another 2-3 inches. The intensity rates down there are now disintegrating. It's over for everyone. Over for everyone? Have you actually checked the radar out of Ft. Dix? Many reports of Heavy snow west and northwest of AC http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=dix&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Latest HRRR, very slight improvements Overdone imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Those echoes were not translating as impressively as you'd think. Several folks in the strongest echoes only saw light snow. It was high reflectivity light non-accumulating snow for most. negative nancy...its coming down nice here..very pretty to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Over for everyone? Have you actually checked the radar out of Ft. Dix? Many reports of Heavy snow west and northwest of AC http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=dix&loop=yes I saw reports of rain in those same areas. Something is amiss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 negative nancy...its coming down nice here..very pretty to look at Not saying it isn't nice just reporting several observations I read from folks who looked to be in good echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I saw reports of rain in those same areas. Something is amiss. Whatever dude, let it fully playout before you start calling it over for everyone. The high res simulated radars show very impressive banding setting up right along the coast and just southeast of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Whatever dude, let it fully playout before you start calling it over for everyone. The high res simulated radars show very impressive banding setting up right along the coast and just southeast of the city. With the surface remaining above freezing the entire time a sloppy additional inch would be a miracle in and around NYC and Philly metro all the way down to southern Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 With the surface remaining above freezing the entire time a sloppy additional inch would be a miracle in and around NYC and Philly metro all the way down to southern Jersey. Some places are near freezing in NJ. I'm at 34 but it's not sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Not saying it isn't nice just reporting several observations I read from folks who looked to be in good echoes. I hear ya. The echoes here over me are real. Lightening up on radar though. Just north of 78 pretty much halfway between 287 and 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Really strong deformation banding building over Burlington and southern Ocean Counties as the coastal takes over. This is forecasted by most of the high res models to "brush" the area this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 They will not get another 2-3 inches. The intensity rates down there are now disintegrating. It's over for everyone. No it's not, not even close. The snow will get and stay heavy over the southern half of NJ as the coastal low takes over and develops a comma-head band there. The question is how much further north that can make it-if that band hits at least NYC and Long Island or stays offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 No it's not, not even close. The snow will get and stay heavy over the southern half of NJ as the coastal low takes over and develops a comma-head band there. The question is how much further north that can make it-if that band hits at least NYC and Long Island or stays offshore. Was talking about Philly metro mainly. It's a fair call to keep extreme southeastern Jersey alive though. Hey if the banding needed for anything of note for most here comes more NW than expected, then I will gladly eat crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Was talking about Philly metro mainly. It's a fair call to keep extreme southeastern Jersey alive though. Hey if the banding needed for anything of note for most here comes more NW than expected, then I will gladly eat crow. NYC thread? RAP gets that banding so damn close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 NYC thread? RAP gets that banding so damn close Yes it is, but I was addressing a specific comment made towards me about Philly metro obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Pressure down to 990 with the coastal, coming north a bit. Now almost due east of Ocean City, MD. Primary up to 999. Greater pressure falls also occuring to the north. I supposed there is an outside chance that this thing comes a hair further NW that expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Pushing into the area http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Looks like it's getting eaten alive from the north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 NYC thread? RAP gets that banding so damn close Same on many models. Newest NAM total snow kicks everyone north of Route 1 in the gut including the 5 boroughs. Long Island gets a little love. Newest RGEM snow map hates us all. RGEM: NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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