MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Upton as of 7:21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Latest HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Latest HRRR How good is the hrrr because that is pretty juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 How good is the hrrr because that is pretty juicy. It's an on and off model. Sometimes it's good and sometimes it flat out stinks lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 It's an on and off model. Sometimes it's good and sometimes it flat out stinks lol. So its like every other model lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Radar this morning out of Ft. Dix pretty telling. The heavier echos are trying to advance northward and are hitting a brick wall currently near Sandy Hook, NJ. It's helping to enhance some of the precip over central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Just taking a look at the 06z NAM high res 4k simulated radar, it was greatly improved from 00z but that's not exactly saying much. The clown maps still don't have any snow up this way but they give parts of southern NJ close to a foot. 00z had nothing for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 So its like every other model lol. Look at next hours. Totally different and way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Upton General model consensus remains with the coastal low deepening off the North Carolina coast this morning...then tracking south and east of Long Island today and tonight. There are some differences in the thermodynamics with the system and amounts of quantitative precipitation forecast. The NAM maintains a rather sharp gradient keeping most of the precipitation off the coast. While the GFS and European model (ecmwf) bring higher quantitative precipitation forecast across Long Island and the city. Still expect around a half inch liquid with 2 to 3 inches of wet snow. Will keep the advisory in place for today and tonight. Less confident that northwestern portions of the advisory...ie..western New Jersey...will see advisory level snowfall. Best forcing will be across New York City and Long Island...with little farther to the north. Inland areas may see less than an inch of snow...so will not expand the advisory from current areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Look at next hours. Totally different and way south. I didn't mean that within the context of this storm, just in general because he said: "It's an on and off model. Sometimes it's good and sometimes it flat out stinks lol." which basically describes every model since they all have their highs and lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Radar looks like precip may be able to make it to NYC and Long Island, as it is still crawling very slowly north. Some of the short-term models moistening up may be encouraging for at least a period of snow today for those areas. Monmouth and Ocean Counties look to get pounded good through today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Look at next hours. Totally different and way south. thats because that model is a joke...I hope S NJ enjoys its 24+" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 thats because that model is a joke...I hope S NJ enjoys its 24+" of snow That matches up pretty well with the 06z 4k NAM FWIW. Although the NAM has southern NJ in a general 8-12" swath rather than 12-18"+. Just keep in mind folks that in order for NYC to see significant accumulations out of this, it would have to be one of the biggest defeats ever for the Euro inside of 24 hours. That's asking an awful lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 That matches up pretty well with the 06z 4k NAM FWIW. Although the NAM has southern NJ in a general 8-12" swath rather than 12-18"+. Just keep in mind folks that in order for NYC to see significant accumulations out of this, it would have to be one of the biggest defeats ever for the Euro inside of 24 hours. That's asking an awful lot. Interesting that Upton thinks the best forcing will be across NYC and LI with 2-4 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 That matches up pretty well with the 06z 4k NAM FWIW. Although the NAM has southern NJ in a general 8-12" swath rather than 12-18"+. Just keep in mind folks that in order for NYC to see significant accumulations out of this, it would have to be one of the biggest defeats ever for the Euro inside of 24 hours. That's asking an awful lot. would be the ultimate all-time defeat for the Euro, but most models keep meaningful precip south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 One of the cooler WV loops I've seen. You can see how the moisture is trying to advect northeastward into New England and how it gets squashed by the flow from the ULL. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The shift drier on yesterday's 12z RGEM was a nice heads up of what the Euro would show a few hours later and the 0z backing off even more. SN_000-048_0000.gif For all who want to get excited in the southern areas of Jersey and in Philly Metro, I fully expect this snow map to verify leaving many with little if any accumulation. We will all in the end get the shaft, deal with it and get over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 That matches up pretty well with the 06z 4k NAM FWIW. Although the NAM has southern NJ in a general 8-12" swath rather than 12-18"+. Just keep in mind folks that in order for NYC to see significant accumulations out of this, it would have to be one of the biggest defeats ever for the Euro inside of 24 hours. That's asking an awful lot. Interesting that Upton thinks the best forcing will be across NYC and LI with 2-4 inches of snow. Best for THEIR forecast area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Best for THEIR forecast area Yes, NYC and LI General model consensus remains with the coastal low deepening off the North Carolina coast this morning...then tracking south and east of Long Island today and tonight. There are some differences in the thermodynamics with the system and amounts of quantitative precipitation forecast. The NAM maintains a rather sharp gradient keeping most of the precipitation off the coast. While the GFS and European model (ecmwf) bring higher quantitative precipitation forecast across Long Island and the city. Still expect around a half inch liquid with 2 to 3 inches of wet snow. Will keep the advisory in place for today and tonight. Less confident that northwestern portions of the advisory...ie..western New Jersey...will see advisory level snowfall. Best forcing will be across New York City and Long Island...with little farther to the north. Inland areas may see less than an inch of snow...so will not expand the advisory from current areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 It's the end of March and the blocking is just too strong for this storm to come up further north. It's amazing isnt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Pressure down to 992 about 125 miles southeast of Ocean City, MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 09z SREF's keeping hope alive for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 A sign of how strong confluence over us is right now, is a lack of pressure falls north of the storm. Pressure down to 992 about 125 miles southeast of Ocean City, MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Precip moving up towards the southern part of NYC. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 NAM is a hair wetter for the southern and eastern areas compared to 06z. Shifted about 20-30 miles northwest with the significant precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 It's surely nowcasting time but the new nam has 0.5 line to NYC and 0.75 to basically south shore of LI through 15 as precip is ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 NAM is a hair wetter for the southern and eastern areas compared to 06z. Shifted about 20-30 miles northwest with the significant precip. This is a complete wishcast, so ill preface this by saying that, but if the end result is even 20-30 miles NW of that were taking 3+ for a much wider area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 meanwhile AaaaaaaaaCCCCCCC comes in with .19 of heavy snow past hour. Do you all remember that storm a few years ago while we got flurries and theygot 2 feet? It can happen Precip moving up towards the southern part of NYC. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 meanwhile AaaaaaaaaCCCCCCC comes in with .19 of heavy snow past hour. Do you all remember that storm a few years ago while we got flurries and theygot 2 feet? It can happen I think that was 2-5-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 This is a complete wishcast, so ill preface this by saying that, but if the end result is even 20-30 miles NW of that were taking 3+ for a much wider area Nam's snowmap still shows 3-6 inches for Southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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