ace0927 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Don't forgot the Euro had the storm almost exiting in Florida for a bunch of runs. GFS was on the storm since 192 hours - JMA was ironically the best model with this storm throughout the duration (it keep the heaviest precip over jersey the whole time) WHAT???? THe JMA consistently had 1" QPF for the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 gfs did really well too, i forgot to mention. it was pretty much just SE with the CBB and didnt budge. ggem and nam both grossly couldnt grasp how pressing the ULL would be. obv this isnt over yet but whats cool about tracking these things is that even when things dont pan out...you can learn alot for the next one. unfortunately, we might have to wait til late october when winter starts again....yea, thats right i said october lol. the only chance i see left for this winter is if that huge cutoff that enters the CA coast can eject in time before the blocking wears down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 WHAT???? THe JMA consistently had 1" QPF for the NYC area Right , from hr 192 all the way in it was 1 to 1.5 area wide . Today was the 1 st time it showed .75 to 1 . But it showed the same solution for 5 straight days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Don't forgot the Euro had the storm almost exiting in Florida for a bunch of runs. GFS was on the storm since 192 hours - JMA was ironically the best model with this storm throughout the duration (it keep the heaviest precip over jersey the whole time) dood...jma had big bombs for entire nyc metro. for whatever reason, it loves nyc because every big system it likes to qpf bomb nyc. did so with the feb 8th blizzard as well. so no, jma was not the best model with this storm for this forum. for philly forum, it did much better for them but still too wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Right , from hr 192 all the way in it was 1 to 1.5 area wide . Today was the 1 st time it showed .75 to 1 . But it showed the same solution for 5 straight days Certainly a case for the idea that consistency =/= accuracy Granted it hasn't happened yet, but it ain't looking that good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Storm warning off Delmarva coast.....this is going to crank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I find it interesting that the NYC weather folks on 7 and 2 (including Jeff Smith, who is good) didn't back off their forecasts at 11 pm, although their forecasts are moderately different. Channel 7 had a general 1-3" for NYC/North NJ/LI with a 3-6" swath in Monmouth/Ocean, while Channel 4 had the same for the metro area, but a swath of 3-5" south and west of the NYC (Somerset/Hunterdon/Morris/Mercer into SE PA) area. And the NWS hasn't backed off yet, based on the NAM being toned down, implying the NAM wasn't a big part of their forecast or else they're just waiting for the Euro before making changes, which is probably a wise thing to do. Also, while everyone here is moaning about the latest models, I find it quite interesting that DT has upped his forecast snowfall totals for most of south/central NJ and SE PA (and even a little for NYC/NE NJ) in the past 2 hours vs, his last call and remember, he's been discounting the NAM completely for days, so the NAM's decrease in QPF shouldn't be a factor to him. If his latest forecast is correct, most of NJ, south of I-78, would get 3-6", SE PA, the Lehigh Valley and NW NJ (Sussex/Morris/Warren/Hunterdon, basically) would get 2-4" and NE NJ (north of 78 and east of 287)/NYC would get 1-2", which would make many of us, except those in the immediate NYC metro area, happy. It is an odd looking map, though... https://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php? fbid=503602616353668&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater https://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?fbid=503439636369966&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 FWIW GGEM gets .75 - 1.00 into Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Yea , the gfs brings the .75" line into northern ocean county, it's going to be a real close call.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 dood...jma had big bombs for entire nyc metro. for whatever reason, it loves nyc because every big system it likes to qpf bomb nyc. did so with the feb 8th blizzard as well. so no, jma was not the best model with this storm for this forum. for philly forum, it did much better for them but still too wet. I'm not saying it was the best in the short range but if you were to look at this storm last week it was by far the closest and most consistent in the general area of where the storm was going to hit. - Every other model wavered from the lakes to ots off Florida including the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Comes out at 2am and 2pm now due to DST. Should be out by now, I think, since the 12Z was out around 1 pm - although for awhile, it's been coming out more like 2 pm and 2 am, presumably due to the fact that we're in daylight savings time in the US, but the UK/Europe isn't until 3/31, as far as I know. So, I'll admit I'm confused, since it's usually a 5-hr difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 ECMWF initializes in one minute. 1:45am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 ECMWF initializes in one minute. 1:45am. Anyone? Bueller? Just posting to make sure site isn't frozen or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 euro isn't good,i won't say that definitely for places further south,but it really doesn't look much better there ether Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Anyone? Bueller? Just posting to make sure site isn't frozen or something... looking at it in wunderground, looks like about .3" qpf for central NJ. central park looks roughly .1" snowmaps on wundergound show pretty much zero snow everywhere, fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 not even anything really to miss out on,this could have shifted north and still been bad if it looked like it does now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 nam looks like it improved a decent bit for jersey shore actually better for nyc long island overall too. better than 18z and much better than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 nam looks like it improved a decent bit for jersey shore actually better for nyc long island overall too. better than 18z and much better than 0z Yea deff improved but were just about out of time - new RAP is much improved as well(one more tick NW and we get into the serious precip) - HRRR looking much better as well puts the band at our door step Lets see if this trend continues - Last 2 HRRR and RAP runs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Yea deff improved but were just about out of time i think south of long island could still do ok,but euro backing way off is kind of a bad sign... maybe nam is the start of a last minute trend lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 HRRR looking pretty good based on the radar for D.C......hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 HRRR looking pretty good based on the radar for D.C......hmmmmYea, wouldn't get my hopes up yet but with such a tight gradient now casting is going to be important.- I'm really interested in that band over DC. The RAP disintegrated the band right before it get to us but if it holds on we could pick up a few inches really quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Yea, wouldn't get my hopes up yet but with such a tight gradient now casting is going to be important. definitely not,lol glad euro did what it did,lowered my expectations enough were I'm pretty sure I'll nothing,but still a tiny bit hopeful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Lastest HRRR is really putting Suffolk in the game as the band pivots over them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 GFS is slightly north with the enhanced precip but has a tighter gradient. Overall very similar to 0z as expected at this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Mid atlantic folks reporting 2 to 3 but melting when rates decrease. They also have advantage of timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Here's my forecast. Very tight gradient: TEB: 1-2" EWR: 1-3" HPN: Tr-2" NYC: 1-2" LGA: 1-3" JFK: 2-4" FRG: 2-5" ISP: 3-6" Port Jefferson, LI: 3-6" OKX: 4-8" FOK: 4-8" BDR: Tr-1" HVN: Tr-1" GON: 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Radar actually doesn't look bad, but when I tried to find precip reaching the ground you got to go to Delaware even though most of south jersey appears to be under precip, lets see what happens today. 38 cloudy, windy dp 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Not true. Check philly obs thread Radar actually doesn't look bad, but when I tried to find precip reaching the ground you got to go to Delaware even though most of south jersey appears to be under precip, lets see what happens today. 38 cloudy, windy dp 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Well if we do get into decent precip it should have no prob be accum snow...timing looks to be good, and snow is accum on all surfaces down to the water in Delaware this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The shift drier on yesterday's 12z RGEM was a nice heads up of what the Euro would show a few hours later and the 0z backing off even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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