kingwill42 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Wow what a train Wreck this storm is turning into and like MOST storms this season trended Worse within 48hrs..At this point just hoping for a warmup as another storm and timeframe with so much potential looks to be wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The 12z guidance yesterday stopping the north push and starting to back away to the south was the nail in the coffin for me in terms of calling this a miss. The confluence is often stronger and eats up more of the precip than models indicate-we saw this on 3/8 and on 2/6/10, when the models teased us with more than what fell. I'd suggest just staying away from the radar tomorrow, it'll be quite painful for most of us. West of Toms River or LBI is the likely jackpot. RGEM also backing away further tonight makes it even more clear for me. At this rate it might just be very light rain/drizzle for near the city with temps 38-42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 when you look at the flip flopping and inconsistency of basically every model not made in europe....it is remarkable, now matter how times we have seen it before, how really good that european actually is.....especially in big blocking confluent patterns. it hardly wavered the past week on the strength of confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Euro was always east, never showed a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 when you look at the flip flopping and inconsistency of basically every model not made in europe....it is remarkable, now matter how times we have seen it before, how really good that european actually is.....especially in big blocking confluent patterns. it hardly wavered the past week on the strength of confluence. Idk if you could say a week out... As far back as the mid-late week it was really far south and it has trended significantly to the north with respect to those runs.. The past several days on the other hand have seemed to take a strong lead with regards to this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Euro was always east, never showed a hit Correct but it was close to one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The Part that annoys me is alot of the Pro's and Experts in here were calling this pattern and timeframe RIpe for a big storm the last 2 weeks but this stinking confluence was never supposed to be a factor in killing a storm until the last couple days. I mean I even read 4 or 5 days ago people were saying the confluence should ease and that this time of the year it wouldn't be strong enough to stop a storm in its tracks which is exactly what looks like is going to happen. Was hoping to end the winter(snow season) with a bang after alot of near misses or nuisance storms. Oh Well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 GFS still showing a moderate event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The Part that annoys me is alot of the Pro's and Experts in here were calling this pattern and timeframe RIpe for a big storm the last 2 weeks but this stinking confluence was never supposed to be a factor in killing a storm until the last couple days. I mean I even read 4 or 5 days ago people were saying the confluence should ease and that this time of the year it wouldn't be strong enough to stop a storm in its tracks which is exactly what looks like is going to happen. Was hoping to end the winter(snow season) with a bang after alot of near misses or nuisance storms. Oh Well.. It was and still is ripe for a storm, it's just that the weather has no regards for political boundaries, especially considering there's a storm going on and a big coastal that will form, just not quite close enough to hit us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 GFS still showing a moderate event.. 0z GFS is .25+ for NYC and .50+ from Staten Island southward. GFS is wetter than the Nam lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_030_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 GFS still showing a moderate event.. the weenies say no i love watching all of them jumps ship in a nowcasting event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Like others have said, there's a reason why NYC averages 25" of snow, there's a reason why KUs don't happen all the time. This winter even with all of its faults was still far better than last year when we were discussing flowers blossoming at this time rather than discussing a potential snow event. And believe it or not there's still potential for snow even into April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 0z GFS is .25+ for NYC and .50+ from Staten Island southward. GFS is wetter than the Nam lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_030_precip_p24.gif I'm supposed to fly out of JFK tomorrow night, and I'm getting a little worried about a delay. In northern sections like Westchester, there might only be 1" of snow, but farther south in NYC could see 2-4" with 40mph winds immediately along the coast contributing to low visibility and dangerous conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 0z GFS is .25+ for NYC and .50+ from Staten Island southward. GFS is wetter than the Nam lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_030_precip_p24.gif Hmm.. yeah but with Sun Angle, borderline temps and not heavy precip even .50 of snow probably only gives 1-2 inches on grassy surfaces. Stinks that the inch Plus QPF with Banding ship has sailed from a couple days ago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I guess we can say we can never bet aganist the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Tough to believe it....but many of us are above normal snowfall this season, myself included Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Idk if you could say a week out... As far back as the mid-late week it was really far south and it has trended significantly to the north with respect to those runs.. The past several days on the other hand have seemed to take a strong lead with regards to this storm it had its wobbles and ticks, improving for us at h5 at times, but it was dead on with the ULL over the NE and how much north any redevelopment could get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Tough to believe it....but many of us are above normal snowfall this season, myself included It's been a good winter here, over 50" of snowfall, nice arctic outbreak in January, cold November/March to extend the winter season. Nothing to complain about. I still think we've got great potential for an early April storm, probably with the 4/3 shortwave, to cap things off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I'm not too sure about my total here...but just from two storms (12" and 8") I'm up to 20"....plus the November storm and several 2-3 inches....probably over 35" and I average around 30. Yes, the potential was there for much more...But with several of the storms we received, the potential really was there for much less too ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I guess we can say we can never bet aganist the ECMWF.This is dangerous thinking for a forecaster. The Euro does, believe it or not, have its own set of weaknesses. All these models are like a big toolbox full of tools. If you didn't know what anything was, you'd learn pretty quickly through trial and error that a wrench isn't for hammering and a screwdriver isn't for measuring... Each model has its own merits and problems, you just have to understand what situations you are in and which fits into each ones strong point... For example, the higher resolution of the NAM should, in theory, be conducive to being more able to pick up convective cells than the GFS... Unfortunately, the drawback to higher reolutions given current computing power is reduced accuracy over longer forecast periods. The Euro tends to overdevelop and hence hold back strong upper level features over the SW US, which can be a big hindrance in certain types of events. The point is, while the Euro is clearly a superior model as most anyone could point out, you need to see it as a tool used for guidance that has its strengths and weaknesses or else it may eventually burn you big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Correct me if im wrong but euro never showed a major hit....normally euro will latch onto a major hit, lose it for a few days and then gradually come back around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Correct me if im wrong but euro never showed a major hit....normally euro will latch onto a major hit, lose it for a few days and then gradually come back around. We never said it did. In fact, we're all singing the Euro's praises because it's kept the same progressive super-blocked pattern in the midst of the NAM and GGEM blowing up with fanciful .75-1.25" QPF runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Woah...im asking for confirmation...not challenging anyone. As i see it euro was correct the entire time We never said it did. In fact, we're all singing the Euro's praises because it's kept the same progressive super-blocked pattern in the midst of the NAM and GGEM blowing up with fanciful .75-1.25" QPF runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Don't forgot the Euro had the storm almost exiting in Florida for a bunch of runs. GFS was on the storm since 192 hours - JMA was ironically the best model with this storm throughout the duration (it keep the heaviest precip over jersey the whole time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Woah...im asking for confirmation...not challenging anyone. As i see it euro was correct the entire time Didn't know the storm had already happened. With a 528dm low in the vicinity, I still think there could be some surprises tomorrow. RIC picked up 4" of snow today, which is incredibly rare for them in late March. Average high is 63F down there at this point in the season. So using the "it's March" argument only works if we don't get some good dynamics. I would think we might see dynamics given the H5 charts looking nearly ideal for a NYC snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Correct me if im wrong but euro never showed a major hit....normally euro will latch onto a major hit, lose it for a few days and then gradually come back around. Look north. I posted the euro never showed a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 GFS still showing a moderate event.. I don't agree. This late in the season with the event mostly during the day, we need heavy snow for it to accumulate. Even if a moderate amount of snow falls, not much would accumulate. I don't think NYC would even see an inch if GFS is right. We need to be under the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Woah...im asking for confirmation...not challenging anyone. As i see it euro was correct the entire time It waffled quite a bit and it did trend north to the other models, its superior to others but nowhere near perfect. But I said this before, I would feel much more comfortable having the euro show a blizzard while every other model shows a miss then the other way around. This is why we all felt pretty comfortable with the Feb storm when the Euro held firm and gave us a nice storm while other models waivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The GFS still has the .75 inch line through Redbank NJ and areas south . The .50 line is near southern Brooklyn . If you are in NYC you are about 25 miles away from the .75 inch line . Can it wind up over Toms River tomorrow ? sure , but some of you make it seem like its down near AC . The Euro not bringing the .50 line up to NYC is the issue , but not the GFS and the NA.....( I refuse to use its full name ) a little south with its precip shield . The Euro really never wanted any part of this system once north of Ocean and Monmouth counties . Curious to see at 0z if it still gets it that far north . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I don't agree. This late in the season with the event mostly during the day, we need heavy snow for it to accumulate. Even if a moderate amount of snow falls, not much would accumulate. I don't think NYC would even see an inch if GFS is right. We need to be under the CCB. Southern areas of NYC get .5" QPF and the Jersey Shore gets close to 1" QPF. Definitely a moderate event, especially for the southern members of this sub-forum. I still think this can bump north by the way. And for accumulation issues, look at RIC. They had the 700mb low nearby and got 4" at 37N latitude with an average high of 63F today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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