friedmators Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Me too. It's march 24th for gods sake. Wouldn't be surprised if some parts of the area receive a cool inch or 2 after sunset. Especially out on LI Yep I concur with this. Just want to see some snow. Still I will be looking for anything in the models/meso that could still help us though time has basically run out, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Roanoke`s 750 am AFD out of NOAA this morning ... 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING THE ROANOKEVALLEY...NEW RIVER VALLEY...AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUERIDGE...INCLUDING LYNCHBURG. ONCE YOU GET TO FAR AWAY FROM THEMTNS INTO THE PIEDMONT...THE GROUND WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM TOSUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IN SPITE OF ANY WINTRYPRECIP. Tonite , The NEW AFD ..... WSW s finally went up with another 3 to 5 on top of the 6 they got today . 1 . Sun angle means nothing 2 . Convection means everything 3 . If you`re lucky enough to be under it , you will accumulate . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Yeah, I agree that the chances are very low to see a tremendous bust in either direction.. especially given how the usually inferior models slowly caved to the Euro solution. The Euro did tick NW a few times to get where it is now, but it was essentially a 90/10 blend towards the original Euro idea. Any time I see these incredible gradients, I cringe as a forecaster. They always end up tighter than forecast because you'll get a nice heavy band on the very edge of the confluence that sits on a west to east angle and doesn't move for a few hours. In Feb 2010 there were 10" discrepancies over a couple of miles due to this. Will be a fun late season storm to track...and it will be good to see snow falling regardless of whether it sticks. is it possible that with mild-ish temps it wouldnt even snow if the precip isnt falling heavy enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 NAM is ever so slightly further NW w/ the H5 low through 9 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 what a weird radar - its not every day you see Thunderstorms 200-250 miles NW of where snow is falling...i cant post the weathertap image for some reason, but look in WV and W VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 sure, but it looks to be pretty cold at all layers around here----wet snow much more likely here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Nam is coming in a good amount further s/e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 25, 2013 Author Share Posted March 25, 2013 is it possible that with mild-ish temps it wouldnt even snow if the precip isnt falling heavy enough? Another tick south could mean a period of light rain during the precipitation that falls during the day. Or possibly a rain/snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The biggest difference I see with the ULL over the NE is it is slightly further away... On the 18z at 15 the height lines extended back into Vermont and NH while at 9 hours only into Maine. Little difference but in the end with such a small margin of error any small difference can make for a drastically different forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 its comical how pathetic the NAM is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Through hr 18 .1 gets up to ewr. It's weaker and less amp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Nam is southeast. Looks like 2-6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Another tick south could mean a period of light rain during the precipitation that falls during the day. Or possibly a rain/snow mix. cue the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 nam will end up similar to 12z euro, not a huge shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 according to the 0Z Nam precip only arrives early to mid afternoon - everything is slowing down http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06018.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Nam is southeast. Looks like 2-6-10. werent you telling us it could be right? Well, now you are right. Now that it finally figured stuff out it is likely much closer to being right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Monmouth and Ocean Counties, a few miles inland or more look like the place to be for this one. Some in that area could see 6" or 8" while people not far to the north like the city and Long Island struggle to get more than a coating, or have rain/snow mix all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 according to the 0Z Nam precip only arrives early to mid afternoon - everything is slowing down http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06018.gif its not slowed down...it shoved south...we get almost nada this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 according to the 0Z Nam precip only arrives early to mid afternoon - everything is slowing down http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06018.gif Its quite warm as well..pushing 40 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 werent you telling us it could be right? Well, now you are right. Now that it finally figured stuff out it is likely much closer to being right I mean it's a model so we shouldn't discount it. Now looking at this run, it surely went towards the Euro. It's still too close to comfort to up. I'm going to stick it out till the end with this one since it's the last chance of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Wooops ....Thats probably the southern edge of the guidance now , makes the Euro look like a homerun . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Massively drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Lol NYC is dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 vs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Its quite warm as well..pushing 40 now Without heavy precip thats expected . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Quite painful to see heavy snow just offshore, but that's how this winter has been. The timing of every event this winter was off. At least now we can welcome spring finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Monmouth and Ocean Counties, a few miles inland or more look like the place to be for this one. Some in that area could see 6" or 8" while people not far to the north like the city and Long Island struggle to get more than a coating, or have rain/snow mix all day. Nope, this run even puts me into the white rain. One thing is for sure, I sure as hell won't miss storming tracking this winter. Just about every every event models have killed storms inside 48-24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I mean it's a model so we shouldn't discount it. Now looking at this run, it surely went towards the Euro. It's still too close to comfort to up. I'm going to stick it out till the end with this one since it's the last chance of the season. yes, yes you should discount the NAM outside of 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 NAM looks cracked out....528dm closed low southeast of NYC with a 992mb surface low 100 miles off the Delmarva and NYC is completely dry. I've never seen a precip shield so compact as the one that's being advertised with this storm. Either the models are correctly resolving an incredible degree of confluence or they're going down hard. I tend to find the CCB spreads out in coastals with less of a gradient than advertised by models, but with a few jackpot zones of heavier banding than expected. I keep waiting for the CCB to spread out and show more widespread QPF but it doesn't seem to be happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 yes, yes you should discount the NAM outside of 24 hrs What a horrible year for the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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