Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Its upsetting that one factor will mess this beautiful pattern up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Srefs way s/e. game set match. II don't know about way southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 II don't know about way southeast. .25 of preciep lost and surface low is further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Sref not bad but east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'm ready to put a fork in this one and call it a miss, there could be some shifts but it doesn't look like confluence will let up enough to allow significant precip into the area. From Allentown down to the NW suburbs of Baltimore and DC could do well. For much of the immediate area I would expect light snow or rain/snow mix that barely accumulates in the afternoon, and by nightfall it looks to taper off, whatever makes it here. Time for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 At 39 the vort is stringer but south and the heights are lower and the UlL 534 contour is into southern maine while on the 12z it was gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Looks like its time for the hi-res models to get a clue and shift SE... Fun while it lasted though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Nam is definetly south and east on this run. Euro wins again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Ouch, that is a painful cutoff. Hard to imagine a foot of snow on Sandy Hook and a dusting in Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Storm is very strong but the problem is its tough for it too move north with that block and ull not letting it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It's a great pattern. I am shocked this storm will not produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Slightly less confluence on the Euro Ensembles compared to the OP, but not sure if it will help that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Ouch, that is a painful cutoff. Hard to imagine a foot of snow on Sandy Hook and a dusting in Queens. 2-6-2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Ouch, that is a painful cutoff. Hard to imagine a foot of snow on Sandy Hook and a dusting in Queens. I'd suggest not looking at radar at all on Monday-it'll be cringeworthy. Historic blocking can be a detriment if you have a massive zone of confluence like this. It's obscene to have to worry about a crushed and suppressed storm on March 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'd suggest not looking at radar at all on Monday-it'll be cringeworthy. Historic blocking can be a detriment if you have a massive zone of confluence like this. It's obscene to have to worry about a crushed and suppressed storm on March 25th. It's gonna be fuzzy bands of virga with flurries under constant 20DbZ echoes while massive dark green bands roll ashore on the coast. I might actually be glad to be sitting in an office working on Monday, otherwise I;d be driving myself nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 2-6-2010 And 3/8 this year almost. We would have gotten no accumulating snow had that shortwave not been on its heels to enhance the snow for us. Sad but too suppressed seems to be the pattern when we have blocking this winter. For the fact we had an okay season, these events have almost universally been frustrating as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The models are starting to look like 2-6-10 =( How about January 1996, snow was not suppose to move North of Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 And 3/8 this year almost. We would have gotten no accumulating snow had that shortwave not been on its heels to enhance the snow for us. Sad but too suppressed seems to be the pattern when we have blocking this winter. For the fact we had an okay season, these events have almost universally been frustrating as hell. Agreed. Every event was marked with frustration and cut offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 What a horrible turn of events. With historic blocking, this storm can't produce. Unbelieveable. not unbelievable at all - snowstorms are rare around the metro this late in March - previous NAM solution was too unbeleivable to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It's a great pattern. I am shocked this storm will not produce. This WHole Winter Storms have Not produced for one reason or another.. Here in North Central NJ 7 inches is the top storm for the season. I have had probably five or six 1-2 inch type of events since December. I have to say all winter the pattern has always been GREAT 7-10 days than you get to that time frame and it fails to produce than you hear same thing about next time frame.. Wash, Rinse ,Repeat.. Bring on Spring !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM hammers PHL, spares NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM hammers PHL, spares NYC Wow, so kind of the Nam to spare us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Honetly a 10 mile shift north we would of been in a major storm zone! Im not worried yet! 10-20 miles we would of had 1.50-1.75 qpf I think this can still trend north and give us a moderate event, especially southeast parts of the metro. The PV lobe is just a bit south of the classic 50-50 position, and the time of year argues for a small shift northward. I think that the low center may not move much more on guidance, but the precip shield spreads out on coastwise as we approach the event..this has a very strong CCB and if the low passes just southeast of Sandy Hook at 980mb, I can't see NYC staying dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 not unbelievable at all - snowstorms are rare around the metro this late in March - previous NAM solution was too unbeleivable to begin with That makes zero sense considering the model depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 What time tonight do the next runs come out, I know the Euro about 1AM but what can we look at before that and about what time? 5:30pm - 18z GFS 10:00pm - 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 18z hi res nam looks better .More precip . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 5:30pm - 18z GFS 10:00pm - 0z NAM Thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 That makes zero sense considering the model depiction go look at the record books and tell me how many storms produced the snowfall ( over 6 inches ) the NAM was advertising up until the last run in late March in NYC and report back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 In 2010 colts neck got a ft of snow and long island didnt see a flake. I was on long island it was painful. So i knw too well ths stuff happens Although i thnk ths still gets to I80 the euro ensembles r a tick north w the confluence. And ur only talking 75 miles over 2 days. You hav to b insane to jump off ths threat yet If the city manages .50 to .75 in late march you hav to take it. That is not out of the question here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 go look at the record books and tell me how many storms produced the snowfall ( over 6 inches ) the NAM was advertising up until the last run in late March in NYC and report back Not the point. A suppressed system that hits areas south of here is even less likely in March...so your point that this storm wasnt going to happen because its late March literally makes no sense. The storm didnt go away, its suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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