MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 18z gefs .75+ for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 18z gefs .75+ for NYC The GEFS are at a disadvantage with the lower resolution not seeing the confluence zone to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The GEFS are at a disadvantage with the lower resolution not seeing the confluence zone to the north. Yep, the GEFS are almost always too far north with precip in strong confluence setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 18z gefs .75+ for NYC cut that number by roughly .50 or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 3 inches in the last hour at Kric #climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Long Island, especially Suffolk County, might end up doing pretty well because they may have several hours of being clipped by the CCB post 8 p.m. tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 3 inches in the last hour at Kric #climo Close to 6 inches near Lychburgh, Virginia. Climo ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 After all this discussion and in some cases bickering back and forth about sun angle and confluence I say just sit back and let this storm play out. If anything the nowcasting and obs should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Should get an obs page up soon 37 / 25 in colts neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39806-march-25th-obs-thread/ Should get an obs page up soon 37 / 25 in colts neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The NAM won't be out for a little over an hour now, due to us being in EDT now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Is the time stamping on NCEP for the RAP off by a day? Assuming this is the latest doesnt look terrible. Never mind about the time stamp. That data looks to get overlayed on the image from the URL and I hadnt refreshed in a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Last three RAP runs showing 500MB vorticity valid 15Z tomorrow. Is this trending one way or the other or just noise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 25, 2013 Author Share Posted March 25, 2013 Last three RAP runs showing 500MB vorticity valid 15Z tomorrow. Is this trending one way or the other or just noise? Noticeable tick to the north and west with the back edge of the height rises in the Atlantic, and the height line associated with the southern fringe of the ULL to our north. Both of those are essential features. A slight wobble or tick north or south can blow the lid off the forecast. So I think everyone in here who forecasts for a living or for a company/etc will be watching very, very carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Noticeable tick to the north and west with the back edge of the height rises in the Atlantic, and the height line associated with the southern fringe of the ULL to our north. Both of those are essential features. A slight wobble or tick north or south can blow the lid off the forecast. So I think everyone in here who forecasts for a living or for a company/etc will be watching very, very carefully. Last three HRRR runs have a similar NW tick with height rises however it looks like the ULL is pressing harder. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013032419/t3/vort_t3500_f15.png http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013032420/t3/vort_t3500_f14.png http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013032421/t3/vort_t3500_f13.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Srefs drier and maybe se...don't really have the interest in checking for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 SREF went southeast and now the gradient is tighter. It looks like the southern parts of the NYC area is more than the northern parts. The 1 inch contour is near SI. It's still really close. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=21ℑ=sref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_036_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 25, 2013 Author Share Posted March 25, 2013 Srefs drier and maybe se...don't really have the interest in checking for sure. They tightened the gradient pretty dramatically..falling in line with the other model guidance. That still doesn't change the fact that a small wobble with the gradient will have huge implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Noticeable tick to the north and west with the back edge of the height rises in the Atlantic, and the height line associated with the southern fringe of the ULL to our north. Both of those are essential features. A slight wobble or tick north or south can blow the lid off the forecast. So I think everyone in here who forecasts for a living or for a company/etc will be watching very, very carefully. unfortunately for the pro's, it might be too late. not to state the obvious, but if the upper level low moves even 20-30 miles further NE a lot of the NYC area would get a good amt of snow...the only reason I have a very hard believing it to fruition is that EURO never really budged in its depiction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Last three HRRR runs have a similar NW tick with height rises however it looks like the ULL is pressing harder. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013032419/t3/vort_t3500_f15.png http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013032420/t3/vort_t3500_f14.png http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013032421/t3/vort_t3500_f13.png but if you look up by Maine the energy from the ULL is clearly further south....that would result in it being forced out south of us...most models are picking up on this now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 25, 2013 Author Share Posted March 25, 2013 unfortunately for the pro's, it might be too late. not to state the obvious, but if the upper level low moves even 20-30 miles further NE a lot of the NYC area would get a good amt of snow...the only reason I have a very hard believing it to fruition is that EURO never really budged in its depiction... Yeah, I agree that the chances are very low to see a tremendous bust in either direction.. especially given how the usually inferior models slowly caved to the Euro solution. The Euro did tick NW a few times to get where it is now, but it was essentially a 90/10 blend towards the original Euro idea. Any time I see these incredible gradients, I cringe as a forecaster. They always end up tighter than forecast because you'll get a nice heavy band on the very edge of the confluence that sits on a west to east angle and doesn't move for a few hours. In Feb 2010 there were 10" discrepancies over a couple of miles due to this. Will be a fun late season storm to track...and it will be good to see snow falling regardless of whether it sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 They tightened the gradient pretty dramatically..falling in line with the other model guidance. That still doesn't change the fact that a small wobble with the gradient will have huge implications. They have about .25" of precip after 21z tomorrow though for NYC and east. That would be good timing with nightfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 SREF went southeast and now the gradient is tighter. It looks like the southern parts of the NYC area is more than the northern parts. The 1 inch contour is near SI. It's still really close. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=21ℑ=sref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_036_precip_p24.gif I think its about 20-30 miles south of there...the. 5" line cuts right through the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 SREF went southeast and now the gradient is tighter. It looks like the southern parts of the NYC area is more than the northern parts. The 1 inch contour is near SI. It's still really close. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=21ℑ=sref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_036_precip_p24.gif the 1" inch contour is south of Sandy Hook (at least on the map you posted)...SI, come on! Its clearly in North Central Monmouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 the 1" inch contour is south of Sandy Hook (at least on the map you posted)...SI, come on! Its clearly in North Central Monmouth Yep, you're right. Still too close to comfort. Like John said, bust potential either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 After 21z tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I honestly don't care how much accumulates I just want to see snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 srefs have followed the previous nam run pretty consistently,i don't see how them moving south means very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I honestly don't care how much accumulates I just want to see snow falling. This. The fact that we have not torch this month and it has acted colder then a avg march I'm happy. Above normal snow and below normal temps, my kind of month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I honestly don't care how much accumulates I just want to see snow falling. Me too. It's march 24th for gods sake. Wouldn't be surprised if some parts of the area receive a cool inch or 2 after sunset. Especially out on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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