March 24-25 Potential Bomb Part Deux

[IsentropicLift]

.50 + for NYC

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p36&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_039_precip_p36.gif

 

This run did trend slightly west. It's now inside of the benchmark.

So what? It's going to fall during the afternoon with a March sun angle. Precip rates never exceed more than 0.10-0.25" in a three hour period during the entire event in NYC. This has white rain written all over it.

[weatherweather]

With a strong, deepening storm like this one, the cloud cover will be rather thick.  So the dispersion of sunlight will be over amplified making the sun angle more akin to a late february weak clipper.

[MJO812]

So what? It's going to fall during the afternoon with a March sun angle. Precip rates never exceed more than 0.10-0.25" in a three hour period during the entire event in NYC. This has white rain written all over it.

 

So what? It's still close to the city to write off.  People wrote off the November storm  and looked what happened. The CCB isn't that far away from the area. If the confluence is slightly weaker, that will make a big difference.

[jm1220]

With a strong, deepening storm like this one, the cloud cover will be rather thick.  So the dispersion of sunlight will be over amplified making the sun angle more akin to a late february weak clipper.

Bottom line is the sun angle won't allow much to stick unless it's coming down hard, no matter how thick the clouds are. It won't be black like a thunderstorm. We have to hope more of this is after dark, or the CCB can make it up to us. Light-mod stuff won't do anything but perhaps whiten grass and make puddles on roads.

[Guest Pamela]

i guess when Pompton Plains is not in the jackpot, no one is.  LOL

+1000

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

So what? It's going to fall during the afternoon with a March sun angle. Precip rates never exceed more than 0.10-0.25" in a three hour period during the entire event in NYC. This has white rain written all over it.

Maybe for you but not for me. Hahaha again, sarcasm.

[IsentropicLift]

Maybe for you but not for me. Hahaha again, sarcasm.

Hope you guys get it good down there, you guys deserve it. Hope I'm wrong and we all get blasted, chances are very slim.

[ace0927]

in past years the weenie term was "backlash" or "backbuilding", now everyone of them uses "CCB" as if any of them actually know what that is...especially, considering all they are looking at is the qpf panel of a model...

[Absolute Humidity]

Maybe for you but not for me. Hahaha again, sarcasm.

Not of latest RGEM has its way. It's even more dry than 12z. Amazing how inside 48hrs this wettest of models flips to one of the driest.

[Guest Pamela]

in past years the weenie term was "backlash" or "backbuilding", now everyone of them uses "CCB" as if any of them actually know what that is...especially, considering all they are looking at is the qpf panel of a model...

 

I actually first heard it used by the Worcester Weatherman <the moderator Will>....when he was discussing the 2/5/2001 storm...I might have a slight cursory knowledge of it....but not too much beyond. 

[ace0927]

I actually first heard it used by the Worcester Weatherman <the moderator Will>....when he was discussing the 2/5/2001 storm...I might have a slight cursory knowledge of it....but not too much beyond. 

ORH is allowed to use those terms because he has a scientific understanding of them...

[Guest Pamela]

ORH is allowed to use those terms because he has a scientific understanding of them...

 

Oh yeah...I'm sure he does...just pointing out where I first learned of it...never had previously seen it in a meteorology textbook...though most of mine are pretty ancient. 

[ace0927]

18Z RGEM, total snow...WE TOSS

 

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

Hope you guys get it good down there, you guys deserve it. Hope I'm wrong and we all get blasted, chances are very slim.

Exactly and agree. Nothing is set in stone, even down here. Just too many 'what could go wrongs' with this system. Just have to hope for the best and if it snows all day and doesnt stick, I'm still ok with that, considering it's March 25th tomorrow. Hahaha

[Guest Pamela]

18Z RGEM, total snow...WE TOSS

 

RGEM is a weird model....sometimes very, very excellent...sometimes awful.  I think it is still a run or two removed from its deadly range with regards to this event...

[jm1220]

18Z RGEM, total snow...WE TOSS

Awful, that would be coating to an inch basically for everyone.

[ace0927]

Awful, that would be coating to an inch basically for everyone.

this time of year its nada

[Guest Pamela]

you act like you live at 10,000 feet in the rockies

 

The act is an old one....

[ace0927]

the current blocking scheme is exactly why this area doesnt see a lot of snowstorms. Even in a good pattern the odds are we wind up losing out.

 

When there is no blocking or when there is a +nao its always a thread the needle situation and those work out once every 3-5 years....now there is great blocking and the spacing between the upper level lows will not allow for coastal amplification.

 

Its not a wonder for anyone with logic why NYC avg's roughly 25" and not 125"

 

Too many people in this subforum didnt live through, or dont have a vivid memory of, March 1979 thru Feb 1993 timeframe. Its plain and simple. 14 years and only 2 big snowstorm (Feb 83 and Jan 87)...now most of us wake up and expect the models to show a BECS/HECS/MECS or whatever other stupid terms have been associated with snow storms, every day of every winter or you get complaints like I just dont understand the models, they have no clue, look at the blocking blah blah blah....

[IsentropicLift]

you act like you live at 10,000 feet in the rockies

None of us are going to see anything significant, nobody, zippo. Monmouth County stands the best chance in this area. NWS forecast for 1-2, 2-4 looks spot on, mostly on grass and unpaved surfaces. I'll see probably a coating if I'm lucky, your argument makes no sense.

[WintersGrasp]

I really think that this is looking more and more like a shot at 2" AT BEST for our area. We will most likely not have the heaviest banding over us....light to moderate snow in late march with temps in the mid 30s midday just will not do it or accumulate on most surfaces. Believe me.....I'm in agreement that its a myth that snow CAN'T ever accumulate during the day late season...I've seen it mid April....BUT, it has to really be with 1-2" an hour rates to get it going when the temps are above freezing.

I think it will get REALLY interesting for places in southern NJ especially JUST inland where this extremely heavy banding is supposed to set up. I know forecasts there are for 2-4" or so.....just outside of that HEAVIEST banding....literally miles away, be it north OR south I feel like there will be areas that are under light to mod snow much of the day and accumulating a coating to an inch while just 20 miles away they are stuck under 2" an hour rates for several hours....could have spots that reach 10" I think in an area around, lets say...Lakehurst. We will see

[RU848789]

the current blocking scheme is exactly why this area doesnt see a lot of snowstorms. Even in a good pattern the odds are we wind up losing out.

 

When there is no blocking or when there is a +nao its always a thread the needle situation and those work out once every 3-5 years....now there is great blocking and the spacing between the upper level lows will not allow for coastal amplification.

 

Its not a wonder for anyone with logic why NYC avg's roughly 25" and not 125"

 

Too many people in this subforum didnt live through, or dont have a vivid memory of, March 1979 thru Feb 1993 timeframe. Its plain and simple. 14 years and only 2 big snowstorm (Feb 83 and Jan 87)...now most of us wake up and expect the models to show a BECS/HECS/MECS or whatever other stupid terms have been associated with snow storms, every day of every winter or you get complaints like I just dont understand the models, they have no clue, look at the blocking blah blah blah....

Great post - the "internet" years, since around 1996 or so, have coincided with probably this area's best stretch ever for major (>10") snowstorms (even if we haven't had the coldest winters - they've been pretty freakin' snowy), so folks who didn't live through the lean years prior to that are probably a little spoiled when it comes to big snowstorms.  I'll be happy seeing it snow all day tomorrow, even if most of it melts, since expecting much more than that at the end of March is not being realistic (although I'll take it, lol). 

[coastalplainsnowman]

Great post - the "internet" years, since around 1996 or so, have coincided with probably this area's best stretch ever for major (>10") snowstorms (even if we haven't had the coldest winters - they've been pretty freakin' snowy), so folks who didn't live through the lean years prior to that are probably a little spoiled when it comes to big snowstorms.  I'll be happy seeing it snow all day tomorrow, even if most of it melts, since expecting much more than that at the end of March is not being realistic (although I'll take it, lol). 

 

the current blocking scheme is exactly why this area doesnt see a lot of snowstorms. Even in a good pattern the odds are we wind up losing out.

 

When there is no blocking or when there is a +nao its always a thread the needle situation and those work out once every 3-5 years....now there is great blocking and the spacing between the upper level lows will not allow for coastal amplification.

 

Its not a wonder for anyone with logic why NYC avg's roughly 25" and not 125"

 

Too many people in this subforum didnt live through, or dont have a vivid memory of, March 1979 thru Feb 1993 timeframe. Its plain and simple. 14 years and only 2 big snowstorm (Feb 83 and Jan 87)...now most of us wake up and expect the models to show a BECS/HECS/MECS or whatever other stupid terms have been associated with snow storms, every day of every winter or you get complaints like I just dont understand the models, they have no clue, look at the blocking blah blah blah....

Amen to that.  Even for the 30 years ending in 1999, by my estimation there were at most *6* widespread 10" + events in the NYC/LI area.  I've been corrected in that with LI being so large that there were probably more such events, but generally it is consistent with your point.  As a kid, 1983 was the first significant one since 78, and 96 was the first significant one since 83.  Remember when seeing your area painted in 6-12 on TWC was like you won the lottery?  Now, when I see 6-12 I think 'oh no big deal.'

[jm1220]

the current blocking scheme is exactly why this area doesnt see a lot of snowstorms. Even in a good pattern the odds are we wind up losing out.

 

When there is no blocking or when there is a +nao its always a thread the needle situation and those work out once every 3-5 years....now there is great blocking and the spacing between the upper level lows will not allow for coastal amplification.

 

Its not a wonder for anyone with logic why NYC avg's roughly 25" and not 125"

 

Too many people in this subforum didnt live through, or dont have a vivid memory of, March 1979 thru Feb 1993 timeframe. Its plain and simple. 14 years and only 2 big snowstorm (Feb 83 and Jan 87)...now most of us wake up and expect the models to show a BECS/HECS/MECS or whatever other stupid terms have been associated with snow storms, every day of every winter or you get complaints like I just dont understand the models, they have no clue, look at the blocking blah blah blah....

NYC is probably the toughest metro area to forecast for in the Northeast, since we're probably the most variable in terms of our climate and the kinds of storms we get/don't get. Miller B's often don't impact DC, and Boston sometimes suffers more from suppression patterns. This winter goes to show how our area is definitely the transitional area between different climates. Most of us have about an average season (much above for Suffolk County due to the 2/8 event), but every storm was a nail-biter, and we took about the most frustrating way possible to average. This one looks no different.

[PB GFI]

None of us are going to see anything significant, nobody, zippo. Monmouth County stands the best chance in this area. NWS forecast for 1-2, 2-4 looks spot on, mostly on grass and unpaved surfaces. I'll see probably a coating if I'm lucky, your argument makes no sense.

There will places in interior central nj that see 6

But once to 78 w light precip its a non event

[ace0927]

Amen to that.  Even for the 30 years ending in 1999, by my estimation there were at most *6* widespread 10" + events in the NYC/LI area.  I've been corrected in that with LI being so large that there were probably more such events, but generally it is consistent with your point.  As a kid, 1983 was the first significant one since 78, and 96 was the first significant one since 83.  Remember when seeing your area painted in 6-12 on TWC was like you won the lottery?  Now, when I see 6-12 I think 'oh no big deal.'

LOL, 6-12" the "dark" purple shade. God forbid you were in the "white" shade, it was a heart attack.

 

Even better, the "weekly planner" at :20 past the hour: you would pray to see your area in the Heavy Snow shade...oooh the good old days!

[Guest Pamela]

NYC is probably the toughest metro area to forecast for in the Northeast, since we're probably the most variable in terms of our climate and the kinds of storms we get/don't get. Miller B's often don't impact DC, and Boston sometimes suffers more from suppression patterns. This winter goes to show how our area is definitely the transitional area between different climates. Most of us have about an average season (much above for Suffolk County due to the 2/8 event), but every storm was a nail-biter, and we took about the most frustrating way possible to average. This one looks no different.

 

I agree, though I think the people over at NWS Taunton have a very tough job as well, especially with the maritime influenced climate of those outer Islands....very tricky forecasts. 

[bluewave]

 

the current blocking scheme is exactly why this area doesnt see a lot of snowstorms. Even in a good pattern the odds are we wind up losing out.

 

When there is no blocking or when there is a +nao its always a thread the needle situation and those work out once every 3-5 years....now there is great blocking and the spacing between the upper level lows will not allow for coastal amplification.

 

Its not a wonder for anyone with logic why NYC avg's roughly 25" and not 125"

 

Too many people in this subforum didnt live through, or dont have a vivid memory of, March 1979 thru Feb 1993 timeframe. Its plain and simple. 14 years and only 2 big snowstorm (Feb 83 and Jan 87)...now most of us wake up and expect the models to show a BECS/HECS/MECS or whatever other stupid terms have been associated with snow storms, every day of every winter or you get complaints like I just dont understand the models, they have no clue, look at the blocking blah blah blah....

 

I think it's more a case this time of bad timing with the storm happening too close to the peak of the blocking. I would much rather

run the risk of an occasional suppressed storm than have to contend with the lack of blocking back during that long snow drought.

 

 

 

 

[ace0927]

NYC is probably the toughest metro area to forecast for in the Northeast, since we're probably the most variable in terms of our climate and the kinds of storms we get/don't get. Miller B's often don't impact DC, and Boston sometimes suffers more from suppression patterns. This winter goes to show how our area is definitely the transitional area between different climates. Most of us have about an average season (much above for Suffolk County due to the 2/8 event), but every storm was a nail-biter, and we took about the most frustrating way possible to average. This one looks no different.

yes, every storm has been heart attack, especially on the south shore of LI

 

to me this winter is a C+..maybe a B-....would have been a different story if there was ever any cold air around.

[Rjay]

LOL, 6-12" the "dark" purple shade. God forbid you were in the "white" shade, it was a heart attack.

Even better, the "weekly planner" at :20 past the hour: you would pray to see your area in the Heavy Snow shade...oooh the good old days!

Hahahahaha I remember those days vividly.