WintersGrasp Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 wow - hr 33 is a real bi-tch yup, one of the many reasons i said this is a tough forecast, nam usually good with tight gradients tho The south shore of Long Island actually looks like it gets hammered......close to 1" QPF I believe while here in NE NJ it's 0.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Agree. Maybe over here it's a few miles broader because of the NE winds up through 700...but it's going to be feast or famine in a 10 mile width tops I think. 10 miles one way someone could get hit pretty hard, 10 miles the other way lucky to see a flurry?easily. i don't think the majority here understand what confluence actually is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 easily. i don't think the majority here understand what confluence actually is This is going to be ugly. I think after the 0z run we'll see a bit better agreement on where the heaviest will set up. Normally up here I don't get excited about situations like this unless I'm right about on the .5 line. North of it I expect very little, JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 easily. i don't think the majority here understand what confluence actually is true, thats why i'm surprised you dont think this is a tough forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 High res NAM has 2.0" of QPF in Sandy Hook and 0 for HPN. Anyone north of I-78 expecting more than 1-3" is foolish, and that might be generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 easily. i don't think the majority here understand what confluence actually is It doesn't mean when everything meets together perfectly for an epic bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 4km NAM has only about 0.25" for NYC, LI. 0.5" just south of LI. 80% rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 It doesn't mean when everything meets together perfectly for an epic bomb? The timing is similar to 2-6-10 happening around an extremely low AO with plenty of confluence to the north. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0206.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 easily. i don't think the majority here understand what confluence actually is 2-6-2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 2-6-2010. It's going to be close to that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 It's going to be close to that storm no way you see snow totals down by philly and south jersey like that storm,and the confluence isnt quite as pronounced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 no way you see snow totals down by philly and south jersey like that storm,and the confluence isnt quite as pronounced I mean the sharp cutoffs. I do think this storm will be further north than that storm. It's going to be similiar to that storm but not the amounts of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 no way you see snow totals down by philly and south jersey like that storm,and the confluence isnt quite as pronounced I don't think he was suggesting those type of snow totals, he was referencing the sharp precip cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 We really need this run of GFS to act on the signals from 12z GEFS to still have some chances to get in on the CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The gradient will b roughly the same as 2010 but you can prob cut amounts in half. Mayb parts of SI see 3. Some places in Monmouth county may eek out 6 with some max 10 amounts into interior ocean county Further south think you mayb fighting off some rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Confluence is slightly weaker at 15 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Through HR 15 the ULl is further north into Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 It's going to be close to that storm Yep, and I fear it will be further south with a more southwest orientation this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Through HR 30 H5 looks better but it doesnt look to be translating downstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Confluence is weaker at 24 and H5 vort is west and stronger but the surface is worse, don't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Gfs takes it inside the bm this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 It's weird seeing the precip shield so tight with a 988 low just inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Usually a storm of this mag would be a qpf bomb! I thought this run looked better but like i and user mentioned it didnt translate downstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 CCB stays offshore or slightly brushes the area. Low precip. QPF totals are 0.25"+ for NW areas and 0.50"+ for southeast areas. Snow maps show zippo for everyone east of Allentown, PA. Looking at the zoomed in views the CCB makes it about as far NW as New York Harbor. The surface is torching the entire time because it's daytime and the last week of March. Would not shock me at all if the end result was no accumulations outside of Monmouth County and the extreme south shore of Long Island for our sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 CCB stays offshore or slightly brushes the area. Low precip. .50 + for NYC http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p36&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_039_precip_p36.gif This run did trend slightly west. It's now inside of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS picking up on dry air like EC, despite a favorable track. Somewhere between Manhattan and Monmouth will see the nasty 10mi wide cutoff. I suspect 0" to 6" on either side of that line, where ever it lines up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The gradient will b roughly the same as 2010 but you can prob cut amounts in half. Mayb parts of SI see 3. Some places in Monmouth county may eek out 6 with some max 10 amounts into interior ocean county Further south think you mayb fighting off some rain I would think just a trace north of White Plains or Bridgeport, slushy inch in the city (outside of Manhattan) and most of Long Island, and from I-80 to I-78 in NJ. 2-4" south of there to I-195 and south of there locally 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 My friend in Virginia has over 5 inches right now. Unbelieveable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Compared to the NAM heights backed significantly more into NE on the GFS, the 534dm isopleth backs into central Mass while on the NAM its out by the capes... I think this has a little wiggle room either north or south, not a tremendous amount though... The problem with this is that ANY slight shift will make the difference between a big producer or cloudy win light flurries... Fun, if not frustrating, to watch if nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 CCB stays offshore or slightly brushes the area. Low precip. QPF totals are 0.25"+ for NW areas and 0.50"+ for southeast areas. Snow maps show zippo for everyone east of Allentown, PA. Looking at the zoomed in views the CCB makes it about as far NW as New York Harbor. The surface is torching the entire time because it's daytime and the last week of March. Would not shock me at all if the end result was no accumulations outside of Monmouth County and the extreme south shore of Long Island for our sub-forum. I don't think the snow maps can account for the persistent evaporative cooling effects the dry air will produce for those under the QPF. No way does south interior Jersey get zippo with 1.5" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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