ace0927 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro isn't god. People make it out to be though. Jeez . Snowlover, good post. like I said, you dont pay attention or learn anything ever...its 24-30 hrs before the event and you are willing to bet against the Euro...GENIUS! How about this, you get the NAM and GFS and ill take the canadian and the Euro for EVERY winter event going forward (Dec 2013 and beyond). $50 a storm...you taking the action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Man St. Louis is getting pounded sitting right on pivot point. 7-8 so far Did the Euro initialize well with the radar at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro's only schooled the NCEP models in the 24-48 hr range all season, but pay no attention...go with the snowiest model! Dr. No giveth and Dr. No taketh away. I won't bet against superior supercomputer funding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I agree about model hugging, but sounds like everyone is trying to find a reason why the euro is wrong. So tell me why the GFS or whatever has to be right? I'm not saying the Euro is wrong, I'm saying that it may not necessarily be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro's only schooled the NCEP models in the 24-48 hr range all season, but pay no attention...go with the snowiest model! its an endless cycle of snow goggle model reading and acceptance in this subforum. This will never change. There is no objectivity here...plenty of subjectivity, however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro was horrible on feb 27th for upstate/sne..In the short range with backing from it's ens. From cny local met.. Congratulations to the GFS for nailing the track and p-type of this storm. It hasn’t been getting much credit lately…but this event is a good reminder of it’s usefulness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'm not saying the Euro is wrong, I'm saying that it may not necessarily be right. is this saying I didnt steal it, I borrowed it without asking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 the euro is better at resolving the effects of confluence/blocking than the gfs. feb 5 2010 is a prominent example... and so was march 8 elephant in the room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Huge lolz at this thread, trying to throw out the Euro, or wait, now it's struggling? LOL No matter how hard you wishcast, it won't make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Some people defend these models as if they are their girlfriend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 wpc .STRENGTHENING UPR LOW APPROACHING THE LWR OH VALLEY LATE SUN......COASTAL CYCLONE DEEPENING ALONG THE COASTALCAROLINAS/MID-ATLC...FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWFFCST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE OZARKS WILL QUICKLYBECOME NEG-TILT RESULTING IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE UPR LOW. ASURFACE LOW IS FCST TO FOLLOW SUIT SHIFTING TOWARD THE LWR OHVALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND GIVES WAYTO A SECONDARY AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTALCAROLINAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS DEVELOPMENT AND ITSASSOCIATED STRENGTH/PLACEMENT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SENSIBLEWEATHER IMPACTS ACRS THE MID-ATLC REGION. BY 12 TO 24 HRS INTO THEFCST...THE 12Z/06Z NAM HAVE SLOWED DOWN WITH THE UPR LOW COMPAREDTO THE 00Z RUN. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z GFS HAS SHIFTED A BIT N WITHTHE EXTENT OF ITS CLOSED LOW ACRS SRN IL. LATER ON...THE 00Z NAMREMAINS DEEPER ALOFT AS THE UPR CYCLONE EXITS THE MID-ATLC BY26/0000Z COMPARED TO THE MORE RECENT VERSIONS OF THE NAM. AT THISSAME TIME...THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED IN THE SLOWER DIRECTION WITHTHIS SHIFT CONTINUING OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC...THE 12Z/06Z NAM/GFSRUNS ARE DEFINITELY NOT AS CLOSE TO THE DELMARVA AS HINTED AT BYTHE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. RELATIVE TO OTHER MODELS...THE 12Z NAM ISDISPLACED A BIT TO THE W WHILE BEING DEEPER BY 25/0000Z. ONCE THESYSTEM IS OVER THE MID-ATLC MIDDAY MON...IT APPEARS THE 12ZCONSENSUS IS TO BE SLOWER AS THE NAM/GFS/GEFS MEAN/CMC/UKMET/ECMWFHAVE ALL INDICATED SUCH TRENDS. THIS EVEN ALLOWS THE EARLIERPROGRESSIVE 00Z UKMET TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY. LOOKING TO THESFC...THE SPREAD HAD CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED MON MORNING AS THELOW SITS JUST OFFSHORE OF SERN VA. ENS LOW PLOTS INDICATE A WELLRESOLVED FCST ALTHOUGH SOME 00Z ECMWF ENS MEMBERS HINT ATSOMETHING SLGTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE...EVEN MORE SO THAN THE 12Z ENSPLOT MODEL CYCLE. AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE 00Z UKMET EVENTUALLYBECOMES TOO QUICK AND HAS THE FURTHEST E LOW CENTER BY 25/1800Z.AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND UNDERWAY ASSLOWER SOLNS APPEAR TO BE THE WAY TO GO. WITH THAT SAID...WILLSHIFT THE PREFERENCE OVER TO THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF WHICH COVERS A PAIROF THE SOLNS ON THE MORE WRN SIDE...BUT ALSO THE DIRECTIONGUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Huge lolz at this thread, trying to throw out the Euro, or wait, now it's struggling? LOL No matter how hard you wishcast, it won't make it happen. Yeah, it's really astounding. Just go with the snowiest model and everything will be alright. Snow weenies, gotta love em'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 FAYI, even if you take NCEP models over the Euro, you're only talking 4" at most! NAM has only 2-4" for NYC, the Euro is more like dusting to and inch. Do we seriously need to make a big deal out of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 FAYI, even if you take NCEP models over the Euro, you're only talking 4" at most! NAM has only 2-4" for NYC, the Euro is more like dusting to and inch. Do we seriously need to make a big deal out of this? That's for the city. The differences in the QPF output for NJ/SE PA are pretty large at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 its an endless cycle of snow goggle model reading and acceptance in this subforum. This will never change. There is no objectivity here...plenty of subjectivity, howeverobjective would be acknowledging that euro COULD be "wrong".....it wouldn't be unreasonable if it verified 50 miles north from where it's modeled....not thinking that's what's going to happen but to totally dismiss the potential In this situation is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'm not saying the Euro is wrong, I'm saying that it may not necessarily be right. + I would add that I've got about 46" of snow this year. The Euro has under forecast a lot of that, both inside and outside of 24hrs. That said, the Euro is still the best, and the accumulating snow for this storm will most likely stay just to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Where do you get the SUNY MM5 from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 NAM qpf for NE PA and western Catskills an inch or so, if that were only to verify, only calling for 1-4 inches here per NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Where do you get the SUNY MM5 from? http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/html/alt_mm5.cgi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/html/alt_mm5.cgi Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro isn't god. People make it out to be though. Jeez . Snowlover, good post. Last post this year. All we have to do is take all the postings from 12/1/12 thru 3/24/13 and repost them.. It's the same arguement with every storm and the euro always wins!!! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 one of the worst couple pages of discussion this winter... euro may spazz out on occasion but when its consistently showing the same solution, in a big blocking confluent pattern, for like 4 days now.....you cannot bet against it. but the snow goggles that ncep guidance wears at times can. easy logic that even a weenie like myself can follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 This thread is really pathetic this afternoon and it makes myself (and I'm sure other moderators too) dissappointed since we tried to reshuffle things in here this winter and there's still a pinned thread sitting at the top of the forum explaining the rules. I don't have the time to be here every day (like today), but some of you just seem like you will never be able to understand the concept of quality discussion. That will only force us to have a strict moderation, people will get banned, and the "fun" on the forum will essentially end. So do as you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Is there a site that will take the projected surface low tracks and pressures from the major models and plot them against mesoanalysis? I feel like there should be something automated like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 the euro is better at resolving the effects of confluence/blocking than the gfs. feb 5 2010 is a prominent example... and so was march 8 This. This. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 This thread is really pathetic this afternoon and it makes myself (and I'm sure other moderators too) dissappointed since we tried to reshuffle things in here this winter and there's still a pinned thread sitting at the top of the forum explaining the rules. I don't have the time to be here every day (like today), but some of you just seem like you will never be able to understand the concept of quality discussion. That will only force us to have a strict moderation, people will get banned, and the "fun" on the forum will essentially end. So do as you wish. Although from the Philly region just wanted to give you some kudos for calling the sharp precip cutoff line about a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Srefs look ok...CNJ huge hit about 0.75 line to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Sref still look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 the euro is better at resolving the effects of confluence/blocking than the gfs. feb 5 2010 is a prominent example... and so was march 8 the euro is better at resolving the effects of confluence/blocking than the gfs. feb 5 2010 is a prominent example... and so was march 8 That said the Euro OP was too far south with every single marginal situation in New England this winter, IE the cape scrapers and in some cases got it horribly wrong even 6 hours out when the snow was already falling at init time. These would have been 100 page threads if it wasn't for the fact it largely only effected the Cape and most had gone on the record saying they were non-events. IMO the Euro has in almost every marginal case this winter been too far south often right up to the end. Normally by now it's better but I don't think one can argue it's doing exceedingly well 6-9 hours in over IL and IN where IMO it was too slow/south with the precip. Really it's at the range where it's unlikely a merger of the GGEM/Euro will go wrong. Stranger things can happen, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 From the little I've looked at in this threat for the east coast, it doesn't look so promising. Late march sun angle and surface temps above freezing do not bode well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.