CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Definitely concerning that the Euro is not on board, but then again, the Euro is not a great model to use in this range to determine total precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Soil/ground temps are colder in March than they are in September. Trying digging down 6 or 12" in March and do the same in September. That is true, however. Insolation values are just as high as they are in September. I shouldn't have used heat, a better word would have been energy. More energy = higher temps however. Examples: Yesterday: September 19: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 According to mount holly, precip is moving slower then expected.. And nam initialized better then the gfs at 500mb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Why is it funny? The Euro had a good bit of precip into NYC when it was within it's 24 hour range and NYC didn't see anything for an event in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The airmass is verifying drier than the GFS had in the forecast. Probably why the Euro and RGEM are so dry. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=kphl http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmav.pl?sta=KPHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Why is it funny? The Euro had a good bit of precip into NYC when it was within it's 24 hour range and NYC didn't see anything for an event in January. So one event in January determines its performance? Id much rather have the euro on my side than any other model this far out. It's destroyed the competition up here. As far as this event..it is rather dry, but this is not your normal low. It's a ton of upper level low dynamics...not much WAA so screwyn things may happen. Very tough forecast there and hugh bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The airmass is verifying drier than the GFS had in the forecast. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=kphl http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmav.pl?sta=KPHL That means two things. It could mean there is better wetbulbing potential, and it could suggest that the GFS is overdoing precip amounts there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 So one event in January determines its performance? Id much rather have the euro on my side than any other model this far out. It's destroyed the competition up here. As far as this event..it is rather dry, but this is not your normal low. It's a ton of upper level low dynamics...not much WAA so screwyn things may happen. Very tough forecast there and hugh bust potential. No, I didn't say that. I said the Euro has made flaws in this range, and isn't as great as it was in the medium range. I provided an example to back up my reasoning. I recall that the Euro suddenly reduced precip amounts for the Jan 26-27 2011 snowstorm the day before it hit as well. Again, not the best model to use in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro is similar to the ggem/regm with qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro is similar to the ggem/regm with qpf. Yeah, the RGEM/Euro combo can sometimes be very accurate. I'd be interested to see if the 18z RGEM agrees with it's 12z run, or shifts again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro is similar to the ggem/regm with qpf. GGEM is a good 0.25" wetter than the Euro from what I see on the e-Wall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 No, I didn't say that. I said the Euro has made flaws in this range, and isn't as great as it was in the medium range. I provided an example to back up my reasoning. I recall that the Euro suddenly reduced precip amounts for the Jan 26-27 2011 snowstorm the day before it hit as well. Again, not the best model to use in that range. Sounds like weenie logic. I'd much rather have the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Fwiw the weather channel going with 4-6 in snow for middlese county nj forecast. Pretty agressive i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I dint get it. Gefs moved west. Euro is struggling . euro is struggling? at what? showing you what you want it to look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I dint get it. Gefs moved west. Euro is struggling . The GEFS also pounded us on 2/6/10 and we ended up getting nothing. It often overdoes the northern extent of storms that run into huge confluence. The Euro backing down further tells me this will be a minor event at best for the metro area. Might just be a coating to an inch on grass for most of us. Monmouth County on south will do better. This one's a miss for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Sounds like weenie logic. I'd much rather have the euro. It's not weenie logic. I'm basing it off of what I observed with the Euro in the past when it forecasted for events within the 24 hour range. Euro hugging is as bad as dismissing it's solution entirely, since it has been both right and wrong with precip amounts in that range. It's definitely concerning to see two good models like the RGEM/Euro on the southern side of guidance though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Fwiw the weather channel going with 4-6 in snow for middlese county nj forecast. Pretty agressive i think TWC always has horrible snow maps. they switch them on a dime.... and then other times will keep them even after they totally busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 TWC always has horrible snow maps. they switch them on a dime.... and then other times will keep them even after they totally busted. They have 5-8 for me..I don't buy that. Way too aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Lol at the euro. Can you tell me why it's LOL at the likely correct solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Let's wait and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I dint get it. Gefs moved west. Euro is struggling . Right the euro is struggling.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 It's not weenie logic. I'm basing it off of what I observed with the Euro in the past when it forecasted for events within the 24 hour range. Euro hugging is as bad as dismissing it's solution entirely, since it has been both right and wrong with precip amounts in that range. It's definitely concerning to see two good models like the RGEM/Euro on the southern side of guidance though. Of course hugging a model is wrong, but trying to find ways why the better model is wrong by using a case on Jan 2011....is just awful logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 euro is struggling? at what? showing you what you want it to look like? This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Can you tell me why it's LOL at the likely correct solution? It has been struggling . Why isn't the nam or gfs correct? We will not know what will happen until the storm hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 My point is this. While the Euro's solution is concerning, it doesn't dictate whether it's solution will be the case or not, since it was mistaken multiple times with it's total precip forecast within the 24 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 the euro is better at resolving the effects of confluence/blocking than the gfs. feb 5 2010 is a prominent example... and so was march 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro isn't god. People make it out to be though. Jeez . Snowlover, good post. This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro's only schooled the NCEP models in the 24-48 hr range all season, but pay no attention...go with the snowiest model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I agree about model hugging, but sounds like everyone is trying to find a reason why the euro is wrong. So tell me why the GFS or whatever has to be right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Man St. Louis is getting pounded sitting right on pivot point. 7-8 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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