TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yes they were...I had 29 F and light snow that would not accumulate till after 5 PM. It did turn to light to moderate snow at that point and I measured 0.4" (snow) in about 85 minutes. Got 0.8" total over several hours. Didn't start accumulating until we had heavy snow moved in (around 12:30pm), and it was heavy. Once the precip rates lightened up (1:30pm), it began melting (got only 0.3" from and hour of heavy snow). Then we got another burst of moderate snow, that burst dropped the temp below freezing and accumulated, but by then it was evening so one can expect good accumulations around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yes, GEFS is slightly NW of operational model with the precipitation field. The spread is def to the north of the mean as well, so that explains where that comes from... on the Spaghetti plots it looks like they're pretty well clustered, but really ANY slight deviation to the N or S is going to have a profound effect on precip amounts given the sharp cutoff expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Keith, we have seen many storms in April. If we get in the Ccb, it probably will stick. Tomorrow should be interesting. many? Name many... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 9 of 12 members are NW of the operational run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 9 of 12 members are NW of the operational run. Do any show serious KNYC hits or just a tad north? or do you have link? Never mind. I found them on EWALL. None are crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 9 of 12 members are NW of the operational run. Wow thats a strong signal... Euro needs to come nw to keep us in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Something else to consider leading into this... past late season storms have not had this cold air that we have had leading into a storm. It has been consistently cold and the ground still gets crusty frozen every morning. This will stick and accumulate this time much more then any past late march/April storm. If the moisture gets here.. it will stick in moderate snow. Its not like its been 50-60 for a week or two and the ground warms up... just sayin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 9 of 12 members are NW of the operational run. right now north central NJ through Staten Island and into Long Island looks to get the most snow out of this - areas south of here will end up with the most precip BUT because of mixing issues especially at the beginning of the storm they will get less snow - so Mercer County through Somerset and Middlesex Counties -Northern Monmouth into Staten Island and Brooklyn and Long Island are looking like the favored snowfall locations IMO.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Something else to consider leading into this... past late season storms have not had this cold air that we have had leading into a storm. It has been consistently cold and the ground still gets crusty frozen every morning. This will stick and accumulate this time much more then any past late march/April storm. If the moisture gets here.. it will stick in moderate snow. Its not like its been 50-60 for a week or two and the ground warms up... just sayin... Maybe where you are but the ground isn't crusty frozen in the morning, because lately temps haven't been dropping well below freezing here. I was just outside, I wasn't doing any work, just sitting in the sun, and I was sweating. That's how strong this March sun is. Look at the daily isolation maps, the amount of heat being absorbed is what we typically see in early September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I really think the models, especially the GFS, are overdoing the cut-off on the north side of the precipitation shield due to convective feedback/QPF bomb along the Jersey shore. Do I really think that Perth Amboy is going to receive almost 1" of QPF in 6 hours while Westchester receives .1" QPF? I don't think so...The 5H chart on the 12z GFS is classic for a NYC snowstorm with the upper low cutting off just SE of the City. I don't know if they are overdoing it. The confluence to the north is associated with dry air which will be entrained into the north side of the storm. But who knows if the models arent too far south. If this bumps north...well its a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro out to 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Maybe where you are but the ground isn't crusty frozen in the morning, because lately temps haven't been dropping well below freezing here. I was just outside, I wasn't doing any work, just sitting in the sun, and I was sweating. That's how strong this March sun is. Look at the daily isolation maps, the amount of heat being absorbed is what we typically see in early September. please. That cant be true. Is 38f out. U cant be sweating from doing anything..might aswell go to the pool than.. grr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yea, I'm not denying the strong sun. But when I step foot onto the baseball fields in Bloomfield, they are a little crusty at 7am and thaw out when the sun gets over the trees and hits. Just saying this particular year at this time, the ground isn't as warm as it usually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 please. That cant be true. Is 38f out. U cant be sweating from doing anything..might aswell go to the pool than.. grr Dude, it's several degrees warmer than where you are and light winds, yesterday, however, was a different story. Why would I lie? That would be a stupid lie IMO haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hr 30 994 east of Delmarva. Light preciep into area. Looks further east this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 please. That cant be true. Is 38f out. U cant be sweating from doing anything..might aswell go to the pool than.. grr Yea.. exactly, I didn't want to say anything...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yep this is going to be a very dry run. Well se from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 While the euro ensembles move nw.. the operational keeps going se. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yep this is going to be a very dry run. Well se from 00z It's seeing stronger confluence like the 12z RGEM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yep this is going to be a very dry run. Well se from 00z And how often is the Euro wrong this close in?....not often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro op .25 NYC south .5 to phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Ehh.. dry run, toss it..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Only 0.5" in Philly? Very dry run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 This has been just as frustrating as the March 8 coastal... Bring on spring!!! I want to tee it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Lol at the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 If we only get .25" total precip tomorrow, you can be assured we won't have more than a slushy coating on the grass. Surface temps 32-34F with a strong march sun over a thin cloud deck and light precip are all bad things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Maybe where you are but the ground isn't crusty frozen in the morning, because lately temps haven't been dropping well below freezing here. I was just outside, I wasn't doing any work, just sitting in the sun, and I was sweating. That's how strong this March sun is. Look at the daily isolation maps, the amount of heat being absorbed is what we typically see in early September. Soil/ground temps are colder in March than they are in September. Trying digging down 6 or 12" in March and do the same in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Lol at the euro. the euro has never given us a snowstorm with this event.... and now 24 hours out, it gives us a resounding F U. oofah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Definitely concerning that the Euro is not on board, but then again, the Euro is not a great model to use in this range to determine total precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I dint get it. Gefs moved west. Euro is struggling . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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