FreeRain Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 around Novemeber 7 the length of the day is about 2 hours less then March 25 - sun angle is less of a factor in november- only way anyone gets over 3 inches is if they get caught in a very heavy band - 2 - 3 inch or more per hour rates because temps are going to be above freezing What are the 850 temps? I think greater than 1" per hour during the day on March 25 would accumulate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 anyways looks like this is mainly a I-70 through I-80 snow event north and south of that area going to be less for obvious reasons I wouldn't even neccesarily count on that...their timeframe for heaviest snow versus time of day is even worse. But time will tell...and the axis of heaviest precip is still not 100% certain...might still shift north or south before the event begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 RGEM did cut back on QPF from 00z with the 06z and now the 12z runs. I think a blend of the nam/gfs is the way to go. Anyone from i-195 south probably has best shot at more than 3 inches inthe heaviest bands and anyone from i-195 to i78 includig EWR.NYC are on the fringes. THe nws call looks good right now. Unless the Euro comes north, it's going to be tough more than a grassy coating to 2" north of Central New Jersey into NYC Metro. We really need snowfall intensity for daytime accumulations with temps starting out in the mid to upper 30's. Would like to see a last minute jog north like they got in Southern Jersey back on February 1st that all the models missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You can think what you want but this system has major timing issues and a rate of 1 in/hr isnt going to get it done. We will need 2 in/ hr snow to get accums on grass. April accum snow almost always occur overnight and early am and most times they are gone by afternoon. Antecedent airmass is also unimpressive at surface What are the 850 temps? I think greater than 1" per hour during the day on March 25 would accumulate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 There was an April storm several years ago that featured accumulating snow during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 There was an April storm several years ago that featured accumulating snow during the day. Yeah, this is going to be a rate dependent storm for accumulations. That was a nice snowburst back in April 2006. It snowed hard enough to drop the temperatures from 40 down to 34 degrees. An hour or two later the sun came out and it all melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You can think what you want but this system has major timing issues and a rate of 1 in/hr isnt going to get it done. We will need 2 in/ hr snow to get accums on grass. April accum snow almost always occur overnight and early am and most times they are gone by afternoon. Antecedent airmass is also unimpressive at surface Several days back IMBY I just got 0.4" of accumulated snow. If I recall correctly, it accumulated between about 3:45pm and 5:30pm. Snow fall rates were only moderate at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You can think what you want but this system has major timing issues and a rate of 1 in/hr isnt going to get it done. We will need 2 in/ hr snow to get accums on grass. April accum snow almost always occur overnight and early am and most times they are gone by afternoon. Antecedent airmass is also unimpressive at surface Strongly leaning your way at the moment; though I do think some good accumulations are possible after 5 PM...if it is not too late by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Several days back IMBY I just got 0.4" of accumulated snow. If I recall correctly, it accumulated between about 3:45pm and 5:30pm. Snow fall rates were only moderate at best. Yep...but temps were only 29 F to 30 F on the Island that afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Long Islanders should hope the heaviest snows hold off until after 5 PM or so...to give it the best chance of accumulating. Really looks like much of the snow falls at the worst possible time...for those who like it to accumulate. We have had so many night event snowstorms the last few years we were bound to get unlucky with one. Or lucky if you enjoy watching heavy snow fall.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The storm looks like it's flying on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Guys...if you want to count slush on roads and 2 to 3 in on cars and grass then youll get what you want but full fledged accums on roads and ratios greater than 6 to 1 arent going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yeah, this is going to be a rate dependent storm for accumulations. That was a nice snowburst back in April 2006. It snowed hard enough to drop the temperatures from 40 down to 34 degrees. An hour or two later the sun came out and it all melted. That was the one where the CPK was stuck on 39.9" for the winter and they called it a 0.1" event to give them 4 straight years with 40 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 NWS Upton call is NOT what you are indicating. That call is for 2-4 inches in immediate metro area RGEM did cut back on QPF from 00z with the 06z and now the 12z runs. I think a blend of the nam/gfs is the way to go. Anyone from i-195 south probably has best shot at more than 3 inches inthe heaviest bands and anyone from i-195 to i78 includig EWR.NYC are on the fringes. THe nws call looks good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Guys...if you want to count slush on roads and 2 to 3 in on cars and grass then youll get what you want but full fledged accums on roads and ratios greater than 6 to 1 arent going to happen. Odds sure do favor that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Pretty big ARW/NMM split on the 12Z. ARW looks like a miss, NMM looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 NWS Upton call is NOT what you are indicating. That call is for 2-4 inches in immediate metro area forecast by me in cnj and ewr is upto 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Airmass was much more conducive about a week ago but now its just mediocre within the first 1000 ft of the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yep...but temps were only 29 F to 30 F on the Island that afternoon. Precip rates that day were pretty light weren't they? Less than 0.1"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Pretty big ARW/NMM split on the 12Z. ARW looks like a miss, NMM looks good. NMM is always wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Or lucky if you enjoy watching heavy snow fall.... Well I would feel very lucky. To me the best part of a snow storm is not the accumulation but the sight of the snow itself. I hate shoveling. It seems all too often the heaviest snows fall at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Guys...if you want to count slush on roads and 2 to 3 in on cars and grass then youll get what you want but full fledged accums on roads and ratios greater than 6 to 1 arent going to happen. Don't think anybody is claiming that we'll get "full fledged accums on roads". At least not in the daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Precip rates that day were pretty light weren't they? Less than 0.1"? Yes they were...I had 29 F and light snow that would not accumulate till after 5 PM. It did turn to light to moderate snow at that point and I measured 0.4" (snow) in about 85 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I do think this thing will edge north of the GFS / NAM simulation another 25 to 50 miles when all is said and done...as it always seems to...or at least 8 out of 10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I really think the models, especially the GFS, are overdoing the cut-off on the north side of the precipitation shield due to convective feedback/QPF bomb along the Jersey shore. Do I really think that Perth Amboy is going to receive almost 1" of QPF in 6 hours while Westchester receives .1" QPF? I don't think so...The 5H chart on the 12z GFS is classic for a NYC snowstorm with the upper low cutting off just SE of the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yeah i heard that before that models were over doing the cut off. And yet february 2010 ..you know .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You can think what you want but this system has major timing issues and a rate of 1 in/hr isnt going to get it done. We will need 2 in/ hr snow to get accums on grass. April accum snow almost always occur overnight and early am and most times they are gone by afternoon. Antecedent airmass is also unimpressive at surface I am sorry, but I was nearly killed 10 years ago in a car accident on Route 80 in snow in April during the day. It was accumulating even on the highway during the day in April, and it was not even snowing anywhere near an inch per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Gefs get .75 up to NYC. Really hammer cnj and snj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yes, GEFS is slightly NW of operational model with the precipitation field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yeah i heard that before that models were over doing the cut off. And yet february 2010 ..you know .. The confluence was quite a bit stronger then though from what it seems to me, not that there is not confluence this time but to me its not strong enough to cause as sharp a cutoff though there will still be a decent gradient it won't be 12/30/00 or 2/6/10 like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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