WintersGrasp Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Looks like the GFS and NAM have met in the middle now. A few inches for NYC and nearby NE NJ....and 5-10" as you head into south and central NJ. Because it won't be a particularly large band of snow, I'm sure some areas will get 3" and areas not far from it will get close to a foot....very sharp cutoff it seems ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 A 10 mile shift northwest from the Nam and GFs would really put NYC in the game! Very plausible that the northwest shift happends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS torches the coast... surface temps at +4 rather than the +1 that nam has at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 People take surface temps way too seriously . If we get some good precip in here, it will cool the surface. LOL...right...to hell with the surface temps...they mean nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 LOL...right...to hell with the surface temps...they mean nothing Just like the Nov storm right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 A 10 mile shift northwest from the Nam and GFs would really put NYC in the game! Very plausible that the northwest shift happends That's what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Just like the Nov storm right? how much accumulated in daylight hours? Little to none....most of the precip will be falling during daylight hours tomorrow. Light to moderate snow isnt going to cut it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Totally agree with surface temps abpve freezing in the daytime on March 25th it will not accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 ISO I agree with you. Responded to ur post via phone. So it did so mid stream Agree....it looks like there will be an area in central/southern NJ that is going to end up with 6+ inches....including the roadways. For all the talk about late March sun angle and today's sunshine warming paved surfaces, if its 32/33 with S+ it will accumulate on all surfaces, period. There are so many past examples of this...in April, 2000, it was 70 degrees on a Saturday and snow accumulated the next morning on road surfaces all the way to the coast. If its heavy snow, it will accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Us in freehold picked up a good deal of our snow in daylight hrs..It started snowing at 1 pm ended early am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Both the 12z NAM and GFS showing 20+ 700mb VVLs tomorrow afternoon over CNJ-SNJ: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Totally agree with surface temps abpve freezing in the daytime on March 25th it will not accumulate Keith, we have seen many storms in April. If we get in the Ccb, it probably will stick. Tomorrow should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Just like the Nov storm right? around Novemeber 7 the length of the day is about 2 hours less then March 25 - sun angle is less of a factor in november- only way anyone gets over 3 inches is if they get caught in a very heavy band - 2 - 3 inch or more per hour rates because temps are going to be above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Keith, we have seen many storms in April. If we get in the Ccb, it probably will stick. Tomorrow should be interesting. Huh...i've seen one that amounted to anything and that was 82' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The RGEM looks like the 0z Euro on precip amounts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Huh...i've seen one that amounted to anything and that was 82' I got 7 inches in north Middlesex County NJ on April 7 2003 and on April 9, 1996 also got 7 inches in northern Ocean County - so it does happen its just rare - BTW the April 1996 storm caused power outages from the heavy wet snow and wind down there so this is a real possibilty area wide tomorrow IF the heavier amounts verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The frontogenesis maps on the Nam and GFS look good . We need to get into the Ccb in order to pick up accumulating snow. That's a must. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 All this debate, March 25th, angle of sun in the sky...Persistance overcomes resistance....Well, snow can stick in May, seen it happen on May 9th 1977 in upstate NY with nearly a foot then several years ago in Binghampton NY on May 21st with temps around 32....So yes it happens, Ive also seen snow not stick in Decemeber and January at 33 or 34 degrees, so enough. I'm just hoping the nam spits out the 1 inch for NE PA and western Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Long Islanders should hope the heaviest snows hold off until after 5 PM or so...to give it the best chance of accumulating. Really looks like much of the snow falls at the worst possible time...for those who like it to accumulate. We have had so many night event snowstorms the last few years we were bound to get unlucky with one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 around Novemeber 7 the length of the day is about 2 hours less then March 25 - sun angle is less of a factor in november- only way anyone gets over 3 inches is if they get caught in a very heavy band - 2 - 3 inch or more per hour rates because temps are going to be above freezing ground is a lot colder now .....i agree the snow will have to come down hard to stick, but 2-3 inches an hour isnt necessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I got 7 inches in north Middlesex County NJ on April 7 2003 and on April 9, 1996 also got 7 inches in northern Ocean County - so it does happen its just rare - BTW the April 1996 storm caused power outages from the heavy wet snow and wind down there so this is a real possibilty area wide tomorrow IF the heavier amounts verify Parts of Long Island had over a foot with that April 10, 1996 storm...but almost all that snow fell after dark. Big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 ground is a lot colder now .....i agree the snow will have to come down hard to stick, but 2-3 inches an hour isnt necessary The ground is absorbing much more heat now than back in November. March 23rd: November 5th, 2012 (couple days before snowstorm): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Gonna need a realy thick cloud deck / low ceiling / heavy rates to get it done tomorrow...if the thing really winds up offshore...could happen. One other problem is that is does not look too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The RGEM looks like the 0z Euro on precip amounts here. that sucks. wasnt it one of the snowier solutions yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 that sucks. wasnt it one of the snowier solutions yesterday? The 18-0z was wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Gonna need a realy thick cloud deck / low ceiling / heavy rates to get it done tomorrow...if the thing really winds up offshore...could happen. One other problem is that is does not look too cold. With the April 6, 1982 blizzard...although most of the snow fell during the daylight hours...afternoon temps were in the mid-20s with one of the most anomalously cold air masses Eastern N. America has ever seen for the first week of April...I recall it dropped temps to 8 F in Chicago and -17 F in a little town in Michigan, whose name escapes me at he moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 All this debate, March 25th, angle of sun in the sky...Persistance overcomes resistance....Well, snow can stick in May, seen it happen on May 9th 1977 in upstate NY with nearly a foot then several years ago in Binghampton NY on May 21st with temps around 32....So yes it happens, Ive also seen snow not stick in Decemeber and January at 33 or 34 degrees, so enough. I'm just hoping the nam spits out the 1 inch for NE PA and western Catskills. you forgot about how many feet from your dryer vent on your house it can accumulate on what setting also - anyways looks like this is mainly a I-70 through I-80 snow event north and south of that area going to be less for obvious reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I think NJ might see a couple of inches of snow due to the banding. They look like the sweet spot. Philly also looks good for accumulating snow. I don't think we are dine trending either for the better or worse . Whoever gets into the banding will get accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 We didn't really see the precip since the bulk fell past 48 hrs on yesterday's run. RGEM did cut back on QPF from 00z with the 06z and now the 12z runs. I think a blend of the nam/gfs is the way to go. Anyone from i-195 south probably has best shot at more than 3 inches inthe heaviest bands and anyone from i-195 to i78 includig EWR.NYC are on the fringes. THe nws call looks good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I think NJ might see a couple of inches of snow due to the banding. They look like the sweet spot. Philly also looks good for accumulating snow. I don't think we are dine trending either for the better or worse . Whoever gets into the banding will get accumulating snow. Agreed. That's going to be a radar-watch situation tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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