Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 0z GEFS is northwest of the op with the precip http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12048.gif It shows a 984 low Also...again just rough stuff there's no sense in really detailing...note the 60h 0z vs 72h 12z. That's like a 400+ mile shift in the .25 line. Crude, but it's really telling. GGEM did the same. Models are playing catchup. Watch later runs tonight for changes very early that involve the old ULL being ever so slightly further NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Also...again just rough stuff there's no sense in really detailing...note the 60h 0z vs 72h 12z. That's like a 400+ mile shift in the .25 line. Crude, but it's really telling. GGEM did the same. Models are playing catchup. Watch later runs tonight for changes very early that involve the old ULL being ever so slightly further NE. Sharp gradient on the GEFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep72072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Also note on the GEFS. One of the things I've noticed this year when the model is going to tick north still...there was a huge QPF streak off the Carolinas last run. Precip was more limited north of NJ. This run it cut that streak down considerably. Precip further north. I think a lot of the GFS issue/gefs issue this winter has had to do with convection right on the crossing point between land/sea. Model blows after the point in which that stuff fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Sharp gradient on the GEFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep72072.gif Yep but big change from the 12z. I'm excluding the off hour GFS. It just seems to me lately there's a definitive stinkage factor with those runs. Note SW CT was around .1 last run, now .25+ with .5 near. Same near the Cape. All good things. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep72072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yep but big change from the 12z. I'm excluding the off hour GFS. It just seems to me lately there's a definitive stinkage factor with those runs. Note SW CT was around .1 last run, now .25+ with .5 near. Same near the Cape. All good things. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep72072.gif Wow, that's a big bump north from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Maybe C-1 here, you guys have a better shot down near the coast, but we'll need good rates for it to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hopefully earthlight does the PBP on the Euro. if this wasn't an error at init that all models got I'm loving it because I think the models will take a couple of cycles to catch back up. Nice trend tonight but need to see it continue at 6z and 12z. Nothing is easy this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Maybe C-1 here, you guys have a better shot down near the coast, but we'll need good rates for it to accumulate. Pre Euro thinking 2-4 or 3-6 potentially around the canal. Would re-evaluate that if the Euro hadn't come north. May not be awake for that though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Pre Euro thinking 2-4 or 3-6 potentially around the canal. Would re-evaluate that if the Euro hadn't come north. May not be awake for that though! The key is getting heavy enough snow, 'cause we need it to be snowing at a pretty good rate for accumulation this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The key is getting heavy enough snow, 'cause we need it to be snowing at a pretty good rate for it to accumulate this time of year. Yeah better I should have said .2 to .4 or .3 to .5ish on the qpf. Haven't even looked at temps so scratch the earlier comment re snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 to illustrate Rollo's point: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdd/mddoutput/ check out GFS 6z -> 12z -> 18z -> 0z at h5 very clear and consistent NE shifts in ULL add to that GEFS, NAM, GGEM, NOGAPs, all shifted northwest in SLP track since 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 note also that sizable NE shifts in the ULL are apparent as early as 12z Sunday ie., not later in the run... i would think this a) lends credence and b_) leaves more time for even larger shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yeah better I should have said .2 to .4 or .3 to .5ish on the qpf. Haven't even looked at temps so scratch the earlier comment re snow If you get a strong band of snow it'll have no trouble accumulating... I'm just not sure the rates will be heavy enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 to illustrate Rollo's point: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdd/mddoutput/ check out GFS 6z -> 12z -> 18z -> 0z at h5 very clear and consistent NE shifts in ULL add to that GEFS, NAM, GGEM, NOGAPs, all shifted northwest in SLP track since 12z Normally when this happens it takes the models 2-3 cycles to finally catch up to the extent of what's an unexpected change. That's why I think there may be more room left. If I had to put a precip figure out there it'd be the .25 or .30 range for the canal pre euro. If the euro comes NW and are still se of the euro ens...I think it's game on. For whatever reason models seem to have overestimated blocking most of this pattern. This time with it so intense the fall back is probably smaller and later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Normally when this happens it takes the models 2-3 cycles to finally catch up to the extent of what's an unexpected change. That's why I think there may be more room left. If I had to put a precip figure out there it'd be the .25 or .30 range for the canal pre euro. If the euro comes NW and are still se of the euro ens...I think it's game on. For whatever reason models seem to have overestimated blocking most of this pattern. This time with it so intense the fall back is probably smaller and later? Agree... I commented Thurs or Fri that similar block-is-too-strong comments were made before the blizzard, only that was 120-144 hours before, not < 72 hours before... the trend is pretty clear for more favorable block position on almost all the guidance tonight... question is how much room do we have to shift at this point Also, we frequently see systems trend more amped / NW within 24 hours... hoping that plays out as well and things become more interesting, at least for south coast. Crazy tight gradient on hi-res NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Agree... I commented Thurs or Fri that similar block-is-too-strong comments were made before the blizzard, only that was 120-144 hours before, not < 72 hours before... the trend is pretty clear for more favorable block position on almost all the guidance tonight... question is how much room do we have to shift at this point Also, we frequently see systems trend more amped / NW within 24 hours... hoping that plays out as well and things become more interesting, at least for south coast. Crazy tight gradient on hi-res NAM: ptot60.gif Need to see the euro get the .2 ashore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 This storm brings me back to the nightmare storms of 09-10 and that was a very bad year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 This storm brings me back to the nightmare storms of 09-10 and that was a very bad year. Ahh great memories . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Ahh great memories . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 00z Euro a bit northwest and stronger, 984mb low at 48hrs, brings .1-.25" to the southern counties of CT, RI, and Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 euro clear tick north, question is how much more can we go... for Tues 6z 0z Euro 12z Euro On 6z NAM, eastward shift in ULL right out of the gate by 9z Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Nothing has changed other than to create more blue balls. SW CT under the gun for several inches..possibly CC too. Sharp cutoff to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Nothing has changed other than to create more blue balls. SW CT under the gun for several inches..possibly CC too. Sharp cutoff to the north. I could see S CT getting RASN while Long Island actually flips to snow closer to the better forcing. I think anything more than an inch or so is going to be tough to come by unless a big shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I could see S CT getting RASN while Long Island actually flips to snow closer to the better forcing. I think anything more than an inch or so is going to be tough to come by unless a big shift north. Yeah I guess. Just seems like the nrn band may clip extreme SW areas. That's one hell of a comma head too for NJ. In any case, a miss for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yeah I guess. Just seems like the nrn band may clip extreme SW areas. That's one hell of a comma head too for NJ. In any case, a miss for most. ASOUT. Yeah it could be a really fun storm for S NJ if they're able to flip early enough.... wild for so late in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 ASOUT. Yeah it could be a really fun storm for S NJ if they're able to flip early enough.... wild for so late in the year. A shame to miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 A shame to miss it. ACY spring I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 ACY spring I guess ACY FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Any moment we'll see delusional posts from Kevin...likely caused by lack of blood flow to brain from running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 ACY FTW. If S NJ could actually pull something off that would be crazy for the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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