Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I think the 0z RGEM is going to be impressive. (basing this on the init) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 Its a different model than the old ETA back then....the newer WRF NAM is designed for convection and it obviously has some issues arising from a synoptic standpoint because of that. This is exactly what I'm hitting at - it seems the newer format abandoned some skill there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Are we seeing the same old model overestimation of the confluence/block to the NE but just to a lesser a degree and later on this time? It's getting much more interesting for south coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 It's interesting that NCEP still reference the NAM so often in their various discussion types, when focusing on synoptic driven events ...then. I will say this much, it is exceedingly rare to have Long Island jack-pot 15" or more of blue snow, while BOS is 0.0 QPF! That is also not meso-driven. Whatever happens, this run is hugely suspect. If that happens it would be a giant phenomenon Meteorologic/statistical rarity, getting something like that to verify. You're talking 70 mi as the crow flies to max a near 2.0" liq equiv, while bringing 0.0 I tell you what ... if anyone on here that is serious about Met, whether enthusiast or educated formally alike, wants to try and argue for a hugely depressed -NAO signal, you need to find a new hobby - you don't get it. All the headaches over the last week are purely a function of that -NAO pinned vortex. Poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 0z GFS is coming north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 0z GFS is coming north too. How can you assess that at just 18 hours... Looks like the SPV is still too dominate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 How can you assess that at just 18 hours... Looks like the SPV is still too dominate? I'm looking for two things John...confluence further NE up here, and two the multi run trend that the main ULL coming in is stronger. Look at the old 12z compared to the 0z. Bowling ball now in the OH Valley. Mainly I only care about the first 24 or so hours with the GFS anyway. It hasn't done well on a larger synoptic system in quite some time (especially those that involve convective elements). Bottom line it's further north with precip closer to init in PA etc, and it's stronger, smidge west with the surface low. Consensus appears to have shifted NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 NW of the 12z maybe 50-75 miles. I think it may be choking like it usually does with some convective issues. The QPF max may be displaced southwest as it closes the ULL too far SW under some earlier convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'm looking for two things John...confluence further NE up here, and two the multi run trend that the main ULL coming in is stronger. Look at the old 12z compared to the 0z. Bowling ball now in the OH Valley. Mainly I only care about the first 24 or so hours with the GFS anyway. It hasn't done well on a larger synoptic system in quite some time (especially those that involve convective elements). Bottom line it's further north with precip closer to init in PA etc, and it's stronger, smidge west with the surface low. Consensus appears to have shifted NW. The confluence is stronger though - bad. And the NAM really shouldn't be factored into a "consensus". I just saw the 48 hour, not really NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 I think if anything, the NAM is too far N with heavy QPF. GFS has been pretty good if you eliminate detail squabbles, at maintaining a -NAO dominating suppressed track. Slightly NW...okay, but we're not overcoming the former facet with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The confluence is stronger though - bad. And the NAM really shouldn't be factored into a "consensus". I just saw the 48 hour, not really NW... It's definitely NW of the 12z with both the MSLP, and the QPF. Overlay the old 48 hour QPF with the new and it's clear. Also...one thing I've noted all year when we've been lucky enough to see the bump north the most notable change is inside of 24 hours. Note out in OH/IL...how far the precip has come north in just the last 12 hours on the GFS. Usually a flag it'll continue to do that in later runs inside of 24-36. The GFS has whacked it all winter in this range. I think it's choking over the Delmarva potentially with that pile of QPF and ends up wrapping up the low a little too far south. But it has support from the UKMET which is even further seaward. If the GGEM looks similar to the RGEM I'd probably take it over just about anything else at this range. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 John for perspective I don't think this is anything like previous systems. I'm looking for movement here of 100 miles or less inside of the next 48 hours. Minor when you really think of it. UK is not buying it at all, way out to sea. But, it blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 You know ... as an afterthought, it also wouldn't shock me if light to moderate impact made it to the Pike, if for no other reason, just to make me wrong... But the NAM was too hyper vigilant about gradient it seemed, and as Rollo' pointed out, the GFS is slightly NW. If the S/W is stronger enough in between the grid points as yet unseen, and it can puke up enough lead S/W ridge, it could razor a short range correction into southern zones and it would atone for these challenges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You know ... as an afterthought, it also wouldn't shock me if light to moderate impact made it to the Pike, if for no other reason, just to make me wrong... But the NAM was too hyper vigilant about gradient it seemed, and as Rollo' pointed out, the GFS is slightly NW. If the S/W is stronger enough in between the grid points as yet unseen, and it can puke up enough lead S/W ridge, it could razor a short range correction into southern zones and it would atone for these challenges. John I pay the NAM no mind to be honest. The CMC is what I've been more interested in. Take a look at the GFS just for crude illustration: MSLP/QPF 12z 69hr 18z 63hr 0z 57hr You'll see the steady trudge NW. Pretty large jumps actually. Again .1 or less still but I think it's indicative of the potential. If the GFS is crapping the bed by misplacing features due to feedback around the Delmarva (and btw when it's done that the UK usually blows it even worse it seems this winter) the solution would have ended up further north before it hit the wall. The Euro has been far from perfect this winter. Heck during that one event that developed late it missed the .4" that fell here in a squashed flow 6 hours before it happened. That said, I'd expect this run would come north tonight. If it doesn't it'll be a big red flag. I'd like to see the Euro come to at least the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 John BTW, if I had to guess I'd think the GGEM is coming north based on the position, structure/strength of the ULL to our NE and also the slower feature in the southern US. Again, kind of having some fun it's late and everyone else is asleep after pounding on one another all day http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/526_100.gif To me, it comes north from the earlier GGEM. Let's see if I'm right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 John I pay the NAM no mind to be honest. The CMC is what I've been more interested in. Take a look at the GFS just for crude illustration: MSLP/QPF 12z 69hr 18z 63hr 0z 57hr You'll see the steady trudge NW. Pretty large jumps actually. Again .1 or less still but I think it's indicative of the potential. If the GFS is crapping the bed by misplacing features due to feedback around the Delmarva (and btw when it's done that the UK usually blows it even worse it seems this winter) the solution would have ended up further north before it hit the wall. The Euro has been far from perfect this winter. Heck during that one event that developed late it missed the .4" that fell here in a squashed flow 6 hours before it happened. That said, I'd expect this run would come north tonight. If it doesn't it'll be a big red flag. I'd like to see the Euro come to at least the RGEM. Can you imagine the fervor if the -NAO is being handled too strongly, and it relinquishes at 24 hour out enough to bring those NAM solutions from yesterday to fruition? Elation, along with continued NAM bashing without acknowledging that it nailed it for 2.5 cycles... ha. Anything to maintain a scapegoat vector... I think ride this and go mm-hm, when the south solutions work out, is the course of least regret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Can you imagine the fervor if the -NAO is being handled too strongly, and it relinquishes at 24 hour out enough to bring those NAM solutions from yesterday to fruition? Elation, along with continued NAM bashing without acknowledging that it nailed it for 2.5 cycles... ha. Anything to maintain a scapegoat vector... I think ride this and go mm-hm, when the south solutions work out, is the course of least regret. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. The Euro ENS is a little NW of the op, which is normally an indication the OP will come NW some. The GFS...blows. The NAM is always overdone. The Uk has blown most of the time at this range this winter (how many times was it SE when we got clobbered or way NW when we got scraped) I'd like to see the GGEM get the 10mm line up into the south coast this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hey Rollo' - hahaha - the NOGAPS is an impressive hit. Might seem stringent with QPF but it's not known of that accuracy. That's a CCB head there all the way to the NH border. Is that the new and improved NOGAPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hey Rollo' - hahaha - the NOGAPS is an impressive hit. Might seem stringent with QPF but it's not known of that accuracy. That's a CCB head there all the way to the NH border. Is that the new and improved NOGAPS? It's pretty consistent with the 12z. What did they do to the NOGAPS? Is it an upgrade or is this a name change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 It's pretty consistent with the 12z. What did they do to the NOGAPS? Is it an upgrade or is this a name change? Both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Both Since the change it seems to have a clue enough to start following. 4km NAM is meh....haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Cool. GGEM is WNW of the earlier run. I really like what's going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Cool. GGEM is WNW of the earlier run. I really like what's going on here. The CCB is like 10-15 miles away from NYC. The GGEM did trend slightly more northwest. It brings precip into coastal CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GGEM still looks like a scraper though... Euro has been consistent, hard to go against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The CCB is like 10-15 miles away from NYC. The GGEM did trend slightly more northwest. It brings precip into coastal CT. Notice the differences between this runs h60 and the old 72. Can see it's becoming more favorable over the northeast each run clearly there. I like where this is going, I think NYC should be in good shape unless this blip we saw through all models but the UK so far was a bad init somewhere. Otherwise we probably are seeing the models catch up to the block changes and may continue to see steady ticks in the hit direction. If I had to bet, I think that's where this is going. With the understanding that there is still a hard ceiling over northern SNE/NE SNE or southern CNE. IE, the pike to NH border that may angle ESE down to the south shore of over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Notice the differences between this runs h60 and the old 72. Can see it's becoming more favorable over the northeast each run clearly there. I like where this is going, I think NYC should be in good shape unless this blip we saw through all models but the UK so far was a bad init somewhere. Otherwise we probably are seeing the models catch up to the block changes and may continue to see steady ticks in the hit direction. If I had to bet, I think that's where this is going. With the understanding that there is still a hard ceiling over northern SNE/NE SNE or southern CNE. IE, the pike to NH border that may angle ESE down to the south shore of over my head. This can only go so far north with the confluence to the north. The GFS moved west but the precip shield look funky. I like the fact that most of the models now show a strong low near or just west of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GGEM still looks like a scraper though... Euro has been consistent, hard to go against it. The Euro has had issues this entire stretch with being too suppressed right up to the point that it suddenly wasn't in almost every storm. In some it was just woeful...it had a NAM moment a month ago in which it was unable to predict .5" of QPF that fell Before the model was even available (inside of 6-9 hours). I expect it comes NW to some degree this run. I think we're going to see a continued shift with a bunching of the precip. IE it'll be like pushing jello against the wall it piles up but can only get so far. NYC and coastal CT has a good shot. Let's see how much further the rest of us get into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 This can only go so far north with the confluence to the north. The GFS moved west but the precip shield look funky. I like the fact that most of the models now show a strong low near or just west of the benchmark. Yep. That's about all you guys can ask for down there right now. I don't feel we're in the settled phase yet the models are still moving. Watch the GEFS, they seem less prone to feedback issues in this pattern which is contrary to what we'd expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yep. That's about all you guys can ask for down there right now. I don't feel we're in the settled phase yet the models are still moving. Watch the GEFS, they seem less prone to feedback issues in this pattern which is contrary to what we'd expect. 0z GEFS is northwest of the op with the precip http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12048.gif It shows a 984 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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