CT Rain Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yup. It's why Phil left unfortunately. Not allowed to discuss possibilities and if you lean positive you get accused of making things up and wishing upon stars Reasonable meteorological discussion is definitely the reason Phil left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 One man's wishcasting is another man's discussion but somehow that is how it's perceived. Unfortunate really that it's gotten to the point that if we discuss things people have to jump in and degrade with attitude. Yes... let's lock in the 12z NAM. Definitely the way to go. Wouldn't expect the Euro/Euro ensembles to be right in a setup like this. 3-6 south of the Pike with room to tickle up if needed if definitely a good call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JACKASS Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Reasonable meteorological discussion is definitely the reason Phil left. LOLOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Reasonable meteorological discussion is definitely the reason Phil left. Yeah lets let weenie wishcasting run wild and based on zero met thought. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yeah lets let weenie wishcasting run wild and based on zero met thought. Makes sense. You didn't hear? The RPM and the ARW SREF members are the best models to use for a 54 hour forecast. A run old NAM solution too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Disaster in the threads lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Mets hate when we discuss weather, odd turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Disaster in the threads lately I feel like I missed something while I was away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Mets hate when we discuss weather, odd turn.Just a lot of crankiness up and down the spectrumMets and hobbyists. It is just weather. Not life or death. Kumbaya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Rgem and ggem are both so close as to watch. Gfs trudged north at 18z. Euro ens seem north if the op. even the nocraps is in tight off jersey which is odd for it. Meh, I will wait another run this seems far from absolutely decided. Ncep spelled out the confusion and consistency issues pretty well I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You didn't hear? The RPM and the ARW SREF members are the best models to use for a 54 hour forecast. A run old NAM solution too. This system looks like a whole lot of nothing for the majority of the forum. Maybe some nuisance snow/rain. 1-2" tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Disaster in the threads lately I feel like I missed something while I was away. Lol... mood invariably gets crabby in here when there's a close miss. Love how the opposite is true too. Wishcasters and Naysayers alike, we are all gonna tune in to the 0z Tebow suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Lol... mood invariably gets crabby in here when there's a close miss. Love how the opposite is true too. Wishcasters and Naysayers alike, we are all gonna tune in to the 0z Tebow suite. not quite understanding what exactly is going on. I read a bunch of discussion about model output then boom that turned into calls of wishcasting then some other nasty comments. Weird, yes we will be watching until it's a consensus and discussing each output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Not sure, really - there are certain unique scenarios where it can actually key in and do well; there are likely case by case studies, and one would have to thoroughly understand them all to know ...or rather get a feel for when to use it. But, that becomes an issue of pragmatism - as in, f* that! Waste are lives digging up minutia and tedium to justify a NAM use? I do know that it smoked the other guidance back in the mid 2000's on several events - just not recently. And I don't know the history of the model's maintenance - could also endemically be worse now. Who knows! Its a different model than the old ETA back then....the newer WRF NAM is designed for convection and it obviously has some issues arising from a synoptic standpoint because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Lol... mood invariably gets crabby in here when there's a close miss. Love how the opposite is true too. Wishcasters and Naysayers alike, we are all gonna tune in to the 0z Tebow suite. People were just as crabby when things came north in the last blizzard. Weird times I didnt even notice Phil had left when did that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The euro ens were NW of the op but are we talking a few miles/noise or a red flag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Rgem and ggem are both so close as to watch. Gfs trudged north at 18z. Euro ens seem north if the op. even the nocraps is in tight off jersey which is odd for it. Meh, I will wait another run this seems far from absolutely decided. Ncep spelled out the confusion and consistency issues pretty well I thought. nice overview thanks you have always added value to this board and it is appreciated much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 There isn't a crabby mood or mood of elation. I don't see a scientific reason (and I'm sure I speak for most mets) in why this will bring 6" to the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The euro ens were NW of the op but are we talking a few miles/noise or a red flag? There's still enough members amped that it gets the 0.10" qpf line into all of SNE...but the 0.25" is pretty far south...near the south coast over to the Canal. I don't hold out a lot of hope for a large event at this point. We could still see a band of 1-3" or something....which I guess would be better than nothing. But the potential for this system was enormous if we had just a little more room to our northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 There's still enough members amped that it gets the 0.10" qpf line into all of SNE...but the 0.25" is pretty far south...near the south coast over to the Canal. I don't hold out a lot of hope for a large event at this point. We could still see a band of 1-3" or something....which I guess would be better than nothing. But the potential for this system was enormous if we had just a little more room to our northeast.Thanks Will, what was the spread last night 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Thanks Will, what was the spread last night 0z? 0.25" line last night was almost to MA/CT border...the 0.10" line was similar though. So there are definitely fewer amped members at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 0.25" line last night was almost to MA/CT border...the 0.10" line was similar though. So there are definitely fewer amped members at 12zyeah the mean slipped from last night, not a good sign, maybe we can get a lucky tick North tonight. I was told this morning 4-6 up to Rt6 in CT, seems she was right as usual regarding last night's Ens run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 yeah the mean slipped from last night, not a good sign, maybe we can get a lucky tick North tonight. I was told this morning 4-6 up to Rt6 in CT, seems she was right as usual regarding last night's Ens run. This isn't the last blizzard where we needed a huge shift nor is it possible this time for such a region wide type event. The possible movement at this juncture is much smaller but also only needs to be 50-100 miles to make a huge difference to me and you. We use the goal posts analogy. Normally the posts themselves represent an inch or so with a gradual spread. The posts this time may well be the edge of huge precip. So...still with watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 This isn't the last blizzard where we needed a huge shift nor is it possible this time for such a region wide type event. The possible movement at this juncture is much smaller but also only needs to be 50-100 miles to make a huge difference to me and you. We use the goal posts analogy. Normally the posts themselves represent an inch or so with a gradual spread. The posts this time may well be the edge of huge precip. So...still with watching. that's a huge comma head deformation band just missing would have been a contendah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 SREFs cave wayyy south. 0.10" scrapes the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 SREFs cave wayyy south. 0.10" scrapes the south coast. ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Srefs should be shut off along with the nam. Useless beyond a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 i have nothing to add except Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Nam doesn't look much like the 18z or 12z at the start. Should rename it to the FGM Forest gump model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 ASOUTLol as all of us thought could happen but all the same some were dogging the SREFS 6 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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