Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Horrible, slow-ass sport. I even say that with having an ex MLB player in my family. edit: if they cut the season in half, I may actually give more of a crap. Plus my team sucks, year after year after year. It is a thinking man's game for sure. This wind today is wicked. Confluence killer, maybe it's on the move enough for LL and the South coast gang ala March 06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It is a thinking man's game for sure. This wind today is wicked. Confluence killer, maybe it's on the move enough for LL and the South coast gang ala March 06 lol. Nothing to do with that. It's boring, and dreadful to watch. Take a look at the next Yakees game or which ever team you watch. Note the never ending parade of people up and down the aisles that can't sit still. People know that when they buy a 50 dollar or more priced seat that they will be bored off of thier azzes within the first 2 innings, followed by milling around. Even worse are the tools that you see with the REAL expensive seats behind home plate texting, and talking away not even paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 lol. Nothing to do with that. It's boring, and dreadful to watch. Take a look at the next Yakees game or which ever team you watch. Note the never ending parade of people up and down the aisles that can't sit still. People know that when they buy a 50 dollar or more priced seat that they will be bored off of thier azzes within the first 2 innings, followed by milling around. Even worse are the tools that you see with the REAL expensive seats behind home plate texting, and talking away not even paying attention.not true fans. My family lives eats and sleeps baseball so we are polar opposites in that regard. We have a sign on the door that says please excuse our absence due to baseball season. I am looking forward to the upcoming season both pro and amateurs. My grandson has a loaded arm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Hi res NAM is crazy, man sucks for America to be behind the 8ball. Put the money in computing the short term not the 15 year climate model's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Hard to believe we are 36 hours from snow start time here and still so much disagreement in modeling. Lots of super amped ens in the 12z euro suite. GFS way NW now. Lol. Low low confidence forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 So GFS come north a hundred miles, let's see what happens at 00z. I am not dismissing a whiff nor a south of Pike special. Too much going on to nail this within 50 miles. Rgem came in pretty robust at 18z too. Only takes a little wobble to get southern areas pretty good. Verbatim the 18z rgem is a hard hitter right on the coast. CMC has been coming north for a few runsRgem 15mm plus for NYC this run and still going Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Hard to believe we are 36 hours from snow start time here and still so much disagreement in modeling. Lots of super amped ens in the 12z euro suite. GFS way NW now. Lol. Low low confidence forecast.Rgem 18z came way North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 It's basically useless unless the synoptics have been figured out and the evolution is similar to the GFS/Euro. Otherwise it's garbage. Unfortunately, far too many people use it for things it's not designed to do. Haha, right - then get all amazed when it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Hard to believe we are 36 hours from snow start time here and still so much disagreement in modeling. Lots of super amped ens in the 12z euro suite. GFS way NW now. Lol. Low low confidence forecast. Actually it's a pretty high confidence forecast with pretty good model agreement. Maybe a period of -SN on the south coast but I'm pretty confident this is a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Got to be careful talking about model runs as some discourage and think thats your forecast. Only saying what they show not bad weeinieology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 I don't know John it's been terrible with all the norluns too. If it's not good on the meso stuff, not good at all on larger synoptic stuff it's time to start over. It's useless. The 1 time out of 20 it's right, well that's probably just luck. If we just had the Euro and GGEM I'd argue forecasts on average would not suffer at all. Heh, NORLUN's a beta-meso event that is rooted in a synoptic circumstance of having trailing mid level jet dynamics running over saturable air in the llvs, where the resulting convergence axis produces ... That's still not a NAM wheel-house thing. I'm telling you, it's got very good convection signaling - it's documented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Rgem 18z came way NorthYeah some alarming trends this afternoon. Might be some folks frantically getting snow in their forecasts tomorrow and public wondering what happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yeah some alarming trends this afternoon. Might be some folks frantically getting snow in their forecasts tomorrow and public wondering what happenedOKX does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Got to be careful talking about model runs as some discourage and think thats your forecast. Only saying what they show not bad weeinieology. Rgem at 18z would belt the extreme south coast. I love the CMC stuff this winter been very good in my hood. winter storm Jim Craig? Miracle on ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 So GFS come north a hundred miles, let's see what happens at 00z. I am not dismissing a whiff nor a south of Pike special. Too much going on to nail this within 50 miles. honestly haven't been following closely enough to dissect the differences, i'll defer that to Rollo et al. but ironic that this is the most northern GFS solution of the day, and significantly so, here in the Tebow timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Rgem 18z came way North Total snowfall: Total precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 honestly haven't been following closely enough to dissect the differences, i'll defer that to Rollo et al. but ironic that this is the most northern GFS solution of the day, and significantly so, here in the Tebow timeframe i am not paying attention at all just looking at models as they come in quickly. It will take a solid 0z suite to rope me in on this one. There are so many moving parts and so much disagreement on them with the models I don't see the point yet.it seemed like this one was squashed but the CMC stuff wants to give it a shot and tbh it's been very good this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Heh, NORLUN's a beta-meso event that is rooted in a synoptic circumstance of having trailing mid level jet dynamics running over saturable air in the llvs, where the resulting convergence axis produces ... That's still not a NAM wheel-house thing. I'm telling you, it's got very good convection signaling - it's documented. in what winter context would the current NAM have any utility? empirically, it's had a horrendous track record for almost all coastal lows, norluns, or snow-producing events of whatever scale this winter. convection signaling... so should we unplug it Oct-Feb? clearly this is a difference from previous years. it seems NAM/ETA has always been considered an important part of winter storm guidance... I remember the days of the "EE rule". something has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 The RGEM has reasonable continuity over previous runs. If you extrapolate the 12z 48-hour depiction 6 hours it would align with this 18 run just fine. RGEM did not come N really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 some ♦ and +'s in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 in what winter context would the current NAM have any utility? empirically, it's had a horrendous track record for almost all coastal lows, norluns, or snow-producing events of whatever scale this winter. convection signaling... so should we unplug it Oct-Feb? clearly this is a difference from previous years. it seems NAM/ETA has always been considered an important part of winter storm guidance... I remember the days of the "EE rule". something has changed. Not sure, really - there are certain unique scenarios where it can actually key in and do well; there are likely case by case studies, and one would have to thoroughly understand them all to know ...or rather get a feel for when to use it. But, that becomes an issue of pragmatism - as in, f* that! Waste are lives digging up minutia and tedium to justify a NAM use? I do know that it smoked the other guidance back in the mid 2000's on several events - just not recently. And I don't know the history of the model's maintenance - could also endemically be worse now. Who knows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbob Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 What are people thinking for opening day weather here in Boston, have tickets so hope we get 60's and sun! Same as usual. Mid 40's cloudy with east wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The RGEM has reasonable continuity over previous runs. If you extrapolate the 12z 48-hour depiction 6 hours it would align with this 18 run just fine. RGEM did not come N really. Yeah it's actually not really that much different. It did handle the upper low to our NE differently though. We'll have to see how that plays out later. But it's not the shift I thought when looking at the phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Not sure, really - there are certain unique scenarios where it can actually key in and do well; there are likely case by case studies, and one would have to thoroughly understand them all to know ...or rather get a feel for when to use it. But, that becomes an issue of pragmatism - as in, f* that! Waste are lives digging up minutia and tedium to justify a NAM use? I do know that it smoked the other guidance back in the mid 2000's on several events - just not recently. And I don't know the history of the model's maintenance - could also endemically be worse now. Who knows! Exactly... there's enough collective memory on this board to recognize that something is off compared to the past, especially vs. the mid 2000s. As CT Rain said, it's a shame. It used to add more value to winter forecasting. We could have avoided alot of stress/confusion with a strict Euro/CMC combo this winter, as many agree. As far as pragmatism and case studies and why NAM has brought stank this winter... agree. Bottomline dude, we just want snow, more and more of it lol, until the sun and skin are ready to beam. It's been an amazing 2nd half winter, whatever happens here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Really bad wishcasting in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Really bad wishcasting in here.Youve struggled on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Enjoy folks. Suspect this may need to bump up tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Youve struggled on this one Tough to do when it hasn't started. Some snow in the south coast maybe a sloppy inch for you. Agree with Ryan. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 One man's wishcasting is another man's discussion but somehow that is how it's perceived. Unfortunate really that it's gotten to the point that if we discuss things people have to jump in and degrade with attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 One man's wishcasting is another man's discussion but somehow that is how it's perceived. Unfortunate really that it's gotten to the point that if we discuss things people have to jump in and degrade with attitude.Yup. It's why Phil left unfortunately. Not allowed to discuss possibilities and if you lean positive you get accused of making things up and wishing upon stars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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