weathafella Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Fascinating albeit complex changes to the larger scale circulation syste, ready to unfold across the next 10 days, offer up a multi-season characteristic outcome to our sensible weather here in SNE. There is a hugely unanimous, massive correction of the AO forecast to take place ... such that by the 15th of the month it the index is postive. Prior to that happening, we have a cold cyclone threat along the New England Coast. Once that takes place, could be a bit of a climo-whiplash that extends across 4 days, going from a winter-like sensible impact to something similar to later spring in as little time. Here's NCEPs mid/extended discussion. If I had written it, it probably would have been the same: EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1159 AM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013 VALID 12Z WED APR 03 2013 - 12Z SUN APR 07 2013 ...PATTERN OVERVIEW... WANING NEGATIVE NAO SIGNAL BECOMES VERY EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE NATION MIDWAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH A VERY ACTIVE SPRING-LIKE CYCLONE TRACK TAKING AIM ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...NORTHERN CENTRAL ROCKIES...GREAT BASIN. DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXITING ENERGY FROM THE ROCKIES (AND MORE OF A PACIFIC INFLUENCE) SIGNALS THE RETURN OF COMPLEX CONVECTIVE WEATHER. BY DAY 7...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO BE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE WEST. IN THE EAST...A SLOW AND GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE VORTEX ACROSS EASTERN CANADIAN IS EXPECTED BEYOND DAY 6. John, I am serious when I say this, you should seriously apply for met jobs in this area. You can use some of your discussions here as prt of your resume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 There seems little doubt its going to snow Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 John, I am serious when I say this, you should seriously apply for met jobs in this area. You can use some of your discussions here as prt of your resume. The V-Day disco would be a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 The V-Day disco would be a good start. Also snowtober. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 CTBlizz's Last Stand. Remember the Alamo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 You know even he was laughing when he typed that post lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 It gon rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2013 Author Share Posted March 31, 2013 The V-Day disco would be a good start. Thanks guys - but, haha, goodness I don't even remember them. Also, what Met jobs around the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 There seems little doubt its going to snow Friday night Please move on to torch talk with Joe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 I remember two famous Easter snow storms. The first being the earliest memory of my life. Kinda cool. Happy happy happy Easter to all my peeps. 3/29/70 - 4" NYC and 11" in NNJ, and a powdery mid-20s event at my place. What was the other one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Please move on to torch talk with Joe.Your forecast is going to need some major changes Fri and Sat. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 3/29/70 - 4" NYC and 11" in NNJ, and a powdery mid-20s event at my place. What was the other one? There was on here on 4/7/96...but I'm not sure he is talking about that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 What a hideous pattern on the Euro...gradient and we stay on the cold side with some miserable cold rain events next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 What a hideous pattern on the Euro...gradient and we stay on the cold side with some miserable cold rain events next week.This is what we were afraid of earlier in the week. Forky and Ryan calling for 80's and we end up in the 40's with rain.. Joes flowers that die in the freeze this week never come back and we are miserable and shivering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Euro just buries us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Any snow for us inC/NNE next week?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Euro just buries us. With showers and transient mild spells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 1-2' this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Euro says not so fast with the threat for friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Euro says fuk you Kevin. I say he's our friend and stfu euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 With showers and transient mild spells. Did I forget that minor detail? Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 80s???? 70sss? We will be lucky and happy to hit 60 Good thing no one forecasted that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Man that is an ugly Euro thru day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Man that is an ugly Euro thru day 10 It's not great but it's not awful down this way. Much worse north and east of here IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 This deep deep winter pattern just produced 7 straight days above normal at BOS, I will take the Euro in a heart beat, actual early April spring weather, some cool some warm.......looks normal to me, the usual caveats apply north and east but that's spring in eastern ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 What a hideous pattern on the Euro...gradient and we stay on the cold side with some miserable cold rain events next week. Yeah I'll be swinging from a chairlift by a scarf if that's how the next 10 days go. That'd really make last week's sunny 45F days look very good, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 No spring fling this week I'm afraid. But definitely no snow melt either. Pretty amazing to have a sub-average snowfall winter but be entering April with 50-80 inches on the ground in the higher elevations. Wind chills below zero this week at work... not a fan of "blustery" with single digit mornings and teens in the afternoon this time of year. I just want a nice, drawn out melt now with highs of 45-50F, lows near 20F, and lots of sunshine. Is that too much to ask? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2013 Author Share Posted March 31, 2013 No spring fling this week I'm afraid. But definitely no snow melt either. Pretty amazing to have a sub-average snowfall winter but be entering April with 50-80 inches on the ground in the higher elevations. Wind chills below zero this week at work... not a fan of "blustery" with single digit mornings and teens in the afternoon this time of year. I just want a nice, drawn out melt now with highs of 45-50F, lows near 20F, and lots of sunshine. Is that too much to ask? lol. The snow pack has been a bit of an ironic story this year. We are well over 100% of seasonal normals, pan-wide across SNE, yet below the elevations ...800', give or take, the pack has not been resistant to melt. There has been bare ground or bare patches more than 50% of the time. Assuming snow melts because of warm air ... this wasn't like other record snowy years where the pack had supportive cold assaults to help lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2013 Author Share Posted March 31, 2013 This deep deep winter pattern just produced 7 straight days above normal at BOS, I will take the Euro in a heart beat, actual early April spring weather, some cool some warm.......looks normal to me, the usual caveats apply north and east but that's spring in eastern ne. It's a nice singular example, but an homage nonetheless to the sentiment I was expressing last week - - we are in a background climate mode that is above normal all over the planet and is for real! Relative to all patterns ...you gotta go warmer. It's also why I said conditions would break warmer prior to the indices suggesting they would. At the time, I described our last 40 days or so as a kind of cold "bubble" - - the bubble has either popped or is popping, more apt. For those interested in snow and wintry weather, lucky for you the environment isn't so far gone that you can't get an event to happen, regardless. Not sure about 30 years from now, at this rate - - but that's a different story. I am kinda dancing around the idea that we had troubles holding snow pack during a way positive anomaly snow year at lower elevations, and managed to do so with the AO and NAO and EPO (at times) being intensely negative, because of that under-pinning warm wash. Something is just wrong out there ... it's tough to put a finger on it, but there are definitely some kind of under-the-radar oddities going on in the environment. One would not expect a record -AO/ with strong -NAO couplet, with oscillating -EPO cold dumps as having trouble maintaining snow packs with well over 100% of normal - - just on the surface that should raise eyebrows. I realize those in the elevations took a different impression away, but the vast majority of the area resides lower than you, and dealt with 20" to 1" in under a 5 days multiple times this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 It's a nice singular example, but an homage nonetheless to the sentiment I was expressing last week - - we are in a background climate mode that is above normal all over the planet and is for real! Relative to all patterns ...you gotta go warmer. It's also why I said conditions would break warmer prior to the indices suggesting they would. At the time, I described our last 40 days or so as a kind of cold "bubble" - - the bubble has either popped or is popping, more apt. For those interested in snow and wintry weather, lucky for you the environment isn't so far gone that you can't get an event to happen, regardless. Not sure about 30 years from now, at this rate - - but that's a different story. I am kinda dancing around the idea that we had troubles holding snow pack during a way positive anomaly snow year at lower elevations, and managed to do so with the AO and NAO and EPO (at times) being intensely negative, because an under-pinning warm wash. Something is just wrong out there ... it's tough to put a finger on it, but there are definitely some kind of under-the-radar oddities going on in the environment. One would not expect a record -AO/ with strong -NAO couplet, with oscillating -EPO cold dumps as having trouble maintaining snow packs with well over 100% of normal - - just on the surface that should raise eyebrows. We have been over this many times, but I will reiterate: you don't usually get huge snowpack years when the majority of the snow falls in February and March. It's harder to build up the layers of snow that sustain a snowpack that late in the season. For example, my town had a near-record 80" snow in 57-58 and yet had fewer snow cover days than 02-03, which had 20" less snow but was better timed. Also, this winter was snowy for southern New England but it was about 30" less snowy than classic years such as 95-96 and 93-94. High snow pack years like 00-01 also had a March pattern where the cold increased with latitude, a gradient pattern, whereas this year the heart of the cold was in the DCA to ATL corridor where snow doesn't lie long anyway. It was just as cold in the East as March 2001 and March 1960, but in the wrong places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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