ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 How about later on with the wave Monday night into Tuesday morning down here in NYC metro? GFS and ECM have 850s nearing -10C so it should be cold enough. Yeah that could produce a little snow...but it looks like we are drying out fairly quickly as the coldest air comes in. That one has some BL issues early on too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Yeah that could produce a little snow...but it looks like we are drying out fairly quickly as the coldest air comes in. That one has some BL issues early on too. I am a little suspicious of anafrontal events in April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 saw snow today at 47 degrees on rte 25 at around 1ish. Sometime after lunch anyway. Downpour dropped temps over 10-15 degrees (car thermo) and there were softballs falling from the sky that looked like clumbed flakes. There was no icy core that I could see. Went on for about 1/2 mile. Have never seen anything not hail at temps above 41/42 Deep winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 You guys have to come up with new material...I haven't had that fields elevation in my sig. in like 5 years. LOL Actually all fields are running 80%+ bare now, but in the woods it's mainly white and lots of 6"+ areas. I suppose they will survive through this coming weeks cold wave. The lower south end clearly is in Spring mode. The upper NW side above 1K is still in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 saw snow today at 47 degrees on rte 25 at around 1ish. Sometime after lunch anyway. Downpour dropped temps over 10-15 degrees (car thermo) and there were softballs falling from the sky that looked like clumbed flakes. There was no icy core that I could see. Went on for about 1/2 mile. Have never seen anything not hail at temps above 41/42 Deep winter Similar here, but only for a few seconds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Well barring any flurries, I'm probably done for any good accumulations. I seriously fell into a deep funk by the end of January. I'm usually even keeled and I tried to stay mellow, but the endless fookjobs really started to get to me. Yes, I admit the crappy winters got to me. I'm man enough to say it. As someone who looks forward to winter every year..it really sucked to get royally hosed like that. Sorry Tip..but even the strong can get weighted down by passion. But the turnaround was nothing short of epic. I remember when we started to talk about more southern stream involvement helping us out when we were ending January, and boy did it ever come. This was an incredible stretch, one that I will always remember. That blizzard and the surprise 18"+ were the highlights for me. It's funny how you can totally get hosed....and then climo just comes in and says "don't worry...I got you this time...." I'm just in awe of this turnaround, it saved my life. Alot of this board REALLY got our spirits lift'd from this snowy period. It was AWESOME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 No big blizzards here, but it's been a good four month run of interesting winter wx for me. The first month I was in Europe with lots of cold/snow and then I got home in time for winter to show up around Christmas here. I want 2.5" more to get to 70" on the season. Alot of this board REALLY got our spirits lift'd from this snowy period. It was AWESOME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 weather is getting boring exceptionally fast. maybe a cpl more storms for the mountains if we can get some active wx back in here ^^^This^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2013 Author Share Posted March 30, 2013 Scott, ...I think the birth of your son saved your life. That said, what stood out for me was despite how much snow we had, was how easy it seemed - in Ayer - to bring the snow pack down to bare ground. Outside of the elevations, it wasn't a very good season for holding snow pack. Kind of a middle ground between your CP issues, and places like 1000' high Worcester. We got these big snow bombs, and as little as a week later, we were patched-out and snow banks. I looked at the Feb and Mar monthly temps and they are not appreciably cold, and obviously that is related to why. Solar plays a part... In 1995, snow started prior to TG in northern sections and shortly there after farther south, but in between times, low solar insolation combined with a steady diet of cold air masses really kept the pack intact. But when we try to do it from mid Feb on, if the air masses can't offset solar (combined with GW, but that's going to roll eyes), it's tough to hold it. I don't know - how else does one explain 50" since Feb 1 and having bare ground 50 percent of the time? 00z NAM is very cold next week for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Scott, ...I think the birth of your son saved your life. That said, what stood out for me was despite how much snow we had, was how easy it seemed - in Ayer - to bring the snow pack down to bare ground. Outside of the elevations, it wasn't a very good season for holding snow pack. Kind of a middle ground between your CP issues, and places like 1000' high Worcester. We got these big snow bombs, and as little as a week later, we were patched-out and snow banks. I looked at the Feb and Mar monthly temps and they are not appreciably cold, and obviously that is related to why. Solar plays a part... In 1995, snow started prior to TG in northern sections and shortly there after farther south, but in between times, low solar insolation combined with a steady diet of cold air masses really kept the pack intact. But when we try to do it from mid Feb on, if the air masses can't offset solar (combined with GW, but that's going to roll eyes), it's tough to hold it. I don't know - how else does one explain 50" since Feb 1 and having bare ground 50 percent of the time? 00z NAM is very cold next week for a couple of days. Obviously a little embellishment, but trust me....days and days of little sleep and sh*t storms wears you down. The snow came right when he slept through the night..lol. A win for all. That said, the end of the euro ensembles are a torch. It's here. So long winter, it was an interesting one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Having said that, there is a hail mary chance for something late next week if a storm can gets its act together off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Having said that, there is a hail mary chance for something late next week if a storm can gets its act together off the coast. Meh--down to 50% or less cover in the open areas. Woods holding on just fine, but let's face it. One can hope for an April event, but with each passing day, realize that we're better off facing the questions of when do we get the first of next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 As the grass slowly reappears in my yard...tons and tons of snow mold...disaster. It hasn't seen daylight for months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 As the grass slowly reappears in my yard...tons and tons of snow mold...disaster. It hasn't seen daylight for months It's better to have the snsow insulatee it from cold than exposed. Sun does diddly for dormant grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Look out Sunday River tomorrow night on the 6Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Mouse or mole/vole tracks appearing in the matted dead grass under the melted snow. You can see we had company so close by all winter. It's better to have the snsow insulatee it from cold than exposed. Sun does diddly for dormant grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Moles equal grubs I think Milky spore time I think I have 95% coverage. Maybe 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Look out Sunday River tomorrow night on the 6Z NAM. Dryslot loves it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 00z Euro tickles that coastal low very near us end of week. Low prob..but something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 JB has gone silent on his one last snowstorm theory....just a few anti-global warming rants. In a perfect world it ends with a bang, but we rarely get so lucky. 00z Euro tickles that coastal low very near us end of week. Low prob..but something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Don't sleep on the 4/6 window quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Hope we get one last shot. Europe is having a few more shots this week and their endless winter continues. Don't sleep on the 4/6 window quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Hope we get one last shot. Europe is having a few more shots this week and their endless winter continues. When there is a -NAO....they really can get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 My cousin in Ulm, Germany emailed yesterday and he sounds desperate for Spring. ...said snow is forecast for Easter and he can't recall a snowy Easter in ages. When there is a -NAO....they really can get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Don't sleep on the 4/6 window quite yet. ORH_wxman, never giving up on flakes till the very end. It's sunny and 32F but feels like 50F out there. Amazing how warm the sun is after a dark cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2013 Author Share Posted March 30, 2013 Obviously a little embellishment, but trust me....days and days of little sleep and sh*t storms wears you down. The snow came right when he slept through the night..lol. A win for all. That said, the end of the euro ensembles are a torch. It's here. So long winter, it was an interesting one. One must wonder if it is overdone but the operation Euro from last night was simply absurd with the heat in the MV and GL ... +20C over ORD. It's gotta be overblown, one would think, but AS IS, that is a classic Sonoran event. Heat builds in the deep SW for the preceding 48 hours, then an outside slider comes down the west coast during a phase change of the PNAP from positive to negative, and it rips that air mass out of the SW and floods it up into the GL. If that were to happen as is, mid 90s would take place in Chicago. Don't think for a second it can't happen. In 1976 it was in the mid 90s in the Merrimack Valley and in the mid 80s to lower 90s from Ohio to Massachusetts during early to mid April. That said, at this time lead and such extremeness should be treated with incredulity, of course. The GFS operational does have a ridge ballooning in a transitional -PNAP, but nothing that would offer that type of extreme solution. The ensemble mean(s) are obviously the course of least regret there. Frankly, I have no problem with a warmer than normal interval in April. I have been posting about it for awhile -- some of the forecast philosophy behind sparked that debate the other day, but not intending to bring that up again. Just saying, the westerly component of the -NAO blocking shatters in a week, and the flow rolls up and out with a R-wave distribution change from the mid Pac to the western Atlantic beginning about 5 days from now and completing by D8 or 9. NCEP has taken note of it in their own rites/reasons in their recent forecast discos, if anyone needs that for assurance. Cold shot this week needs to happen first, then we'll see how warm it gets. The extrapolation from the 00z operational Euro would likely bring a big warm pop up this way by April 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 One must wonder if it is overdone but the operation Euro from last night was simply absurd with the heat in the MV and GL ... +20C over ORD. It's gotta be overblown, one would think, but AS IS, that is a classic Sonoran event. Heat builds in the deep SW for the preceding 48 hours, then an outside slider comes down the west coast during a phase change of the PNAP from positive to negative, and it rips that air mass out of the SW and floods it up into the GL. If that were to happen as is, mid 90s would take place in Chicago. Don't think for a second it can't happen. In 1976 it was in the mid 90s in the Merrimack Valley and in the mid 80s to lower 90s from Ohio to Massachusetts during early to mid April. That said, at this time lead and such extremeness should be treated with incredulity, of course. The GFS operational does have a ridge ballooning in a transitional -PNAP, but nothing that would offer that type of extreme solution. The ensemble mean(s) are obviously the course of least regret there. Frankly, I have no problem with a warmer than normal interval in April. I have been posting about it for awhile -- some of the forecast philosophy behind sparked that debate the other day, but not intending to bring that up again. Just saying, the westerly component of the -NAO blocking shatters in a week, and the flow rolls up and out with a R-wave distribution change from the mid Pac to the western Atlantic beginning about 5 days from now and completing by D8 or 9. NCEP has taken note of it in their own rites/reasons in their recent forecast discos, if anyone needs that for assurance. Cold shot this week needs to happen first, then we'll see how warm it gets. The extrapolation from the 00z operational Euro would likely bring a big warm pop up this way by April 11. GEFS are a little stubborn with what appears to be a WF signal draped over the northeast of course....a signal which we all need to be aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Obviously a little embellishment, but trust me....days and days of little sleep and sh*t storms wears you down. The snow came right when he slept through the night..lol. A win for all. That said, the end of the euro ensembles are a torch. It's here. So long winter, it was an interesting one. Wait until you have 2 or 3 when they're all sick at the same time or some other issue is going on. Will make the important of whether it's snowing or raining or sunny seem like a walk in the park. This was a good winter but it's over and spring is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 ORH_wxman, never giving up on flakes till the very end. It's sunny and 32F but feels like 50F out there. Amazing how warm the sun is after a dark cold winter. Why would I give up on a chance for snow in favor of the alternative for this time of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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