The Lion's end to March banter and discussion, part deux!

[CoastalWx]

East or west based ?   

 

West, but that's the thing...this is just referring to the -NAO as defined by whatever the domain is. Obviously location of blocks matter. The point is a general -NAO does not mean cold air slams into New England. It's a weak cold signal..probably because the signal becomes muted as we go through April. IOW, we have had -NAOs produce both warm and cold temp regimes. That's why the signal isn't high.

 

Don't forget, perhaps the -NAO pushes a BDF through and our high temps are chilly...but low temps do not budge either and this reflects on the daily departures. Just food for thought.

[Typhoon Tip]

Is this an active weather pattern or what?!

 

[Typhoon Tip]

West, but that's the thing...this is just referring to the -NAO as defined by whatever the domain is. Obviously location of blocks matter. The point is a general -NAO does not mean cold air slams into New England. It's a weak cold signal..probably because the signal becomes muted as we go through April. IOW, we have had -NAOs produce both warm and cold temp regimes. That's why the signal isn't high.

 

Don't forget, perhaps the -NAO pushes a BDF through and our high temps are chilly...but low temps do not budge either and this reflects on the daily departures. Just food for thought.

 

 

No one in this current debate suggested anything like this...  I'm not sure it was west based, either - I don't remember it that way, so I'll go look.   

 

But you are in part making my point, when you say "Obviously location of blocks matter"  --  Will cannot possibly say that .2 value eliminates that part of the discussion. Case closed.

 

I think what the problem here is simple:   You guys see a .2 as it relates to temperature, and toss the NAO in April - at least, that's what Will did originally and ticked me off;  because he does that on the heels of my posts sometimes and comes off as subversive trolling.  I'm sick of that for one.  

 

Secondly, a true predictor of this field would NEVER assume a linear application of that .2... They would realize that in certain situations, the NAO can be broken out into quadrature, and those individual component have stronger correlation.    There are papers out there that demonstrates this in PDF that were refereed -- I know what I am talking about.  

[CoastalWx]

No one in this current debate suggested anything like this...  I'm not sure it was west based, either - I don't remember it that way, so I'll go look.   

 

But you are in part making my point, when you say "Obviously location of blocks matter"  --  Will cannot possibly say that .2 value eliminates that part of the discussion. Case closed.

 

I think what the problem here is simple:   You guys see a .2 as it relates to temperature, and toss the NAO in April - at least, that's what Will did originally and ticked me off;  because he does that on the heels of my posts sometimes and comes off as subversive trolling.  I'm sick of that for one.  

 

Secondly, a true predictor of this field would NEVER assume a linear application of that .2... They would realize that in certain situations, the NAO can be broken out into quadrature, and those individual component have stronger correlation.    There are papers out there that demonstrates this in PDF that were refereed -- I know what I am talking about.  

 

Well I think what he means...and I see this too, is that we have had warm and cold spells with a general -NAO. So, one has to look deeper because the thinking of -NAO means cold in New England is not completely accurate.

[Damage In Tolland]

Snow on GFS

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Snow on GFS

La,la lock it.

[tamarack]

No - I don't distort my recollection.

 

WTF is going on around here with you people.   I think you are all pissed and subversively trolling within the confines of the forum rules so as to go undetected, and I think Will is the master at this from  a position of rank - too.

 

I am well aware of the normal green-up times, and that they can be offset/modulated slightly by in situ climate biases.

 

I'm not a provincial running around with odd-ball belief systems in this.   

 

I think folks are touchier than needful today - must be the wx.  Zuck probably should've chosen "peoples' recollection" rather than "your recollection", but other than that, his post didn't look to me as anything resembling trolling.   YMMV

 

The boldfaced phrase is what I've always thought, and observed.  However, pics about this time last year from SNE and (especially) MA locations showed leaf-out nearly 4 weeks ahead of usual, about twice what I thought was possible.  If those 80s we had 3/20-22/12 had occurred around 4/10, we'd probably have been close to 3 weeks ahead here in the foothills, instead of the actual 10 days or so.  Our phenology was actually a few days earlier in 2010 than in 2012, at least until we had the leaf-blackening low 20s on 5/11. 

[Typhoon Tip]

You guys should get outside if you can.  Light wind, high-ish sun angle, and 57F feels like Cargo shorts weather.   

 

It's funny - classic spring sounding.  Cloud it up, and saturate that air mass and it's misery at 38F probably.   

 

I'm noticing that the NAM FRH grid is sneaking a degree C warmer into the 980 and 900mb sigmas, per about every other run.  It's like you can sense the diabatic input slowly registering in the grid.   

 

Still have some hope that next week's cold shot might offer a last winter fair, but it seems the models are trying to truncate the duration of that.  Take today for example, we are in barely 530dm thickness and probably flirt with 60F at places like ASH,FIT...etc.  Next week the thickness gets to about 522dm, but really only stays there for 9 hours or so before rebounding rather quickly to 530dm or so.   Today's air mass is pretty rotted for polar character, and relative to those thickness next week it should be colder than today, no doubt!  But seeing as the models are shrinking the duration,  heh... 

 

Looks kind of like there is a battle ground in the extended.  A lot of guidance have seasonal warm/warming trend beneath approximately 40N, with lingering winter like 850mb temps jammed up pretty tightly on the N side of a boundary that situated W-E.   

[ORH_wxman]

Well I think what he means...and I see this too, is that we have had warm and cold spells with a general -NAO. So, one has to look deeper because the thinking of -NAO means cold in New England is not completely accurate.

 

 

Correct...this is the exact point I was trying to get across by saying the index number of the NAO is essentially meaningless in April. You have to dig quite a bit deeper. If we had a solid index number of negative in January, its a much better chance of being below avg temps than April.

[dendrite]

April is quite a transition month. Those charts are a monthly avg so I'd assume there'd be more correlation between the NAO and 2m temps here in the beginning of the month while the longer wavelengths linger over from winter. Then as we increase the wave number towards May the correlation fizzles out.

[Typhoon Tip]

I think folks are touchier than needful today - must be the wx.  Zuck probably should've chosen "peoples' recollection" rather than "your recollection", but other than that, his post didn't look to me as anything resembling trolling.   YMMV

 

The boldfaced phrase is what I've always thought, and observed.  However, pics about this time last year from SNE and (especially) MA locations showed leaf-out nearly 4 weeks ahead of usual, about twice what I thought was possible.  If those 80s we had 3/20-22/12 had occurred around 4/10, we'd probably have been close to 3 weeks ahead here in the foothills, instead of the actual 10 days or so.  Our phenology was actually a few days earlier in 2010 than in 2012, at least until we had the leaf-blackening low 20s on 5/11. 

 

This was all that I was hitting at previously ... since we have proven that local time scale anomalies can modulate green-up timing with some variance, I was merely "wondering",   IF we keep the night time temps above 32F, and it the afternoons are 55-60 under hot sun, could it trigger some bud swelling earlier this week.  

 

I have to say, the tulip/daisy shoots just doubled in my yard over the last 2 days alone -- something accelerated 'em.   

 

I'm just struggling to find ANYTHING interesting about April.   As that image of NWS main page I posted illustrates with panache ... this time of year can be utterly devoid of activity, and therefore...rather boring really.   

 

You know, I was think a month ago ... if there were ever a spring for BDF (like Scotts was intimating a while ago..) one might think this would be it.  It's been awhile since I remember a real bona fide boundary layer under-cutting knife.  ...the kind that pushes frisbee weather clear to ALB/LGA and parks us in mirk for a week.   

 

Then there is the infamous May to early June of 2005.  O M G, did that ever suck the chrome off of trailer hitches!  Talkin' 44 for a high, 40 for a low, 55mph wind gusts, and sheets of rain.  There were three nor'eastern across 15 or 20 days, and in between each one, drizzle and wafts of cold N Atlantic puke kept it less than 50F.  0 sun, -15F temperature departures, or whatever misery it was ... and no hope, endlessly.

 

It broke around June 5th after a punishing 3-weeks of the most ecstatic horror known to challenge the tolerance of man ... What was weird, it was like 97/74, 2 days later.

[ORH_wxman]

April is quite a transition month. Those charts are a monthly avg so I'd assume there'd be more correlation between the NAO and 2m temps here in the beginning of the month while the longer wavelengths linger over from winter. Then as we increase the wave number towards May the correlation fizzles out.

 

 

March isn't much better. The transition really occurs in earl-mid March and then its just a dampened very weak signal until we get to October again when it increases.

[Typhoon Tip]

Wow, that's an interesting transitional type pattern on the operational Euro -- well, previous run(s) hinted this two in having the mean polar boundary situation along 40N..

 

But take D5 to D6, next Wed-Thursday.  The highs on Wed may be 42-45 tops (if that were to pan out), but around 60F on Thursday!   

 

April is quite a transition month. Those charts are a monthly avg so I'd assume there'd be more correlation between the NAO and 2m temps here in the beginning of the month while the longer wavelengths linger over from winter. Then as we increase the wave number towards May the correlation fizzles out.

This is hugely true - April 1 to April 30 are pretty different end points.   

 

The discussion point about the applicability of the NAO is problematic for me for anyone that just uses the flat .2 decimal value because it's simple:

one, that value is the entire NAO domain.

two, the domain absolutely has to be broken out into quadrature, and then tested for each component.   

 

it's just mathematics, 101, clear, if one use the .2 as flat assumption they are completely skewing the reality of HOW exactly NAO effects our anomalies during the spring.  In fact, I was just reading a paper last week that discussed NAO's effects on the geopotential medium over eastern Canada in JJA, and their findings demonstrated a stronger correlation than a few are intimating in this debate.  Well... if you raise or lower height over Onario that DEFINITELY has an effect here; meanwhile, the whole of the NAO is LYING about that component of the NAO domain because the calculation normalizes the local anomaly, out. 

 

One simply cannot logically use .2 because of its homogenized value, ...it's to the point it makes one wonder why that number is even published.  It's silly -

[tamarack]

"I'm just struggling to find ANYTHING interesting about April. As that image of NWS main page I posted illustrates with panache ... this time of year can be utterly devoid of activity, and therefore...rather boring really."

 

Mostly agree, and make it "this" April and I totally agree - boredom city, unless we can get a string of sunny 60s after midmonth.  Actually, if sun and warmth are rationed, I'd prefer mid May and beyond, as prior to that it's senseless to do much garden work in my frost pocket location.

 

I recall 2005 with horror, but last June was pretty nasty as well.  At my place, it's generally safe to plant cucurbits around Memorial Day, and I did so last year.  They were about 2" out of the ground when the 3" rainstorm with upper-40s killed them.  Waited a week or so to replant, only to have a 2" rainstorm at upper 50s slay them again during the last week of the month.  No cucurbits that season... 
 

[Damage In Tolland]

That Euro runs looks very iffy for those hoping for massive warmth. There's enough weakness and blocking there to send several cool shots into the northeast. I'd be careful blasting warmth in here

[Typhoon Tip]

By the way, NCEP's MJO run down points out, "Higher latitude variability, especially in the North Atlantic sector, is expected to be the primary 

driver across most of the U.S. over the next couple of weeks."

 

It makes sense if the wave coherence has indeed dipped so far.  The NAO is forecast to steadily rise during that period of time.  If so, at some point we lose semi-permanent higher heights up there that are tending to support the continued re-establishment of the 50/50 -type vortex.  

 

If that happens we'd likely see a 2-5 day warm spell as the R-wave train sets into motion and a big L/W ridge rolls through.

[Typhoon Tip]

That Euro runs looks very iffy for those hoping for massive warmth. There's enough weakness and blocking there to send several cool shots into the northeast. I'd be careful blasting warmth in here

 

 

Yeah, I agree Kev'  - this run looks transitional with 2 day on, 2 day off variability of cooler and warmer than normal.  Nothing to thrilling either way.  

[Typhoon Tip]

"I'm just struggling to find ANYTHING interesting about April. As that image of NWS main page I posted illustrates with panache ... this time of year can be utterly devoid of activity, and therefore...rather boring really."

 

Mostly agree, and make it "this" April and I totally agree - boredom city, unless we can get a string of sunny 60s after midmonth.  Actually, if sun and warmth are rationed, I'd prefer mid May and beyond, as prior to that it's senseless to do much garden work in my frost pocket location.

 

I recall 2005 with horror, but last June was pretty nasty as well.  At my place, it's generally safe to plant cucurbits around Memorial Day, and I did so last year.  They were about 2" out of the ground when the 3" rainstorm with upper-40s killed them.  Waited a week or so to replant, only to have a 2" rainstorm at upper 50s slay them again during the last week of the month.  No cucurbits that season... 

 

 

Omg, this is exactly what happened to me last year.  We had a uber balmy March, and the ground was soft, and even the Bitter Sweet vines were leaving out.  The buds swelled and cracked and leaf out took place absurdly early.  I had bumble bees flying labored with the weight of the pollen in their pollen sacs in the first week of April.  I took a chance that April and May might go down as the previous two years, but lost that gamble... Well, April I don't think was too bad, but I definitely recall the latter part of May and the first 10 days of June seriously stunting growth in my garden.  I think I cold-burnt the roots.  My peppers and cukes just produced almost nothing.  Not bad on Toms though... huh.  

 

Anyway, this year I'm waiting to the first week of May at the earliest to gage whether we get a cool snap again.   

 

Will or someone might correct this if I'm wrong, but it seems the obnoxious early warmth has really been a last 5 years sort of dice roll.  Our growing season is realistically 3 months tops.   My cuke leaves turn yellow and brown by mid August regardless of the temperature, though if the plant is producing fruit it may still put out a couple.  

[Mr Torchey]

Yeah, I agree Kev'  - this run looks transitional with 2 day on, 2 day off variability of cooler and warmer than normal.  Nothing to thrilling either way.  

Sounds like spring

[N. OF PIKE]

weather is getting boring exceptionally fast. maybe a cpl more storms for the mountains if we can get some active wx back in here

[Logan11]

All these people getting excited about Spring wx. It will tease, but most of April will be wasted in useless cool, cloudy, at times rainy, etc. wx, plus lots of mud here. Still mainly frozen ground underneath, but the mud season is poised to hit after next weeks cold wx passes.

 

It's analogous to late October when we get teased by a small accumulating snowfall only to see November turn mild with the real flip to winter coming after Thanksgiving.

 

Basically Nov. and April are my least favorite months, but at least in Nov. you have the whole winter to dream about.

[Damage In Tolland]

All these people getting excited about Spring wx. It will tease, but most of April will be wasted in useless cool, cloudy, at times rainy, etc. wx, plus lots of mud here. Still mainly frozen ground underneath, but the mud season is poised to hit after next weeks cold wx passes.

 

It's analogous to late October when we get teased by a small accumulating snowfall only to see November turn mild with the real flip to winter coming after Thanksgiving.

 

Basically Nov. and April are my least favorite months, but at least in Nov. you have the whole winter to dream about.

Depends which field you're on

[CoastalWx]

Depends which field you're on

 

The lower south end clearly is in Spring mode. The  upper NW side above 1K is still in winter.

[Typhoon Tip]

NAM/GFS blend might bring a burst of snow to the interior elevations around 60 hours... 

[Ginx snewx]

NAM/GFS blend might bring a burst of snow to the interior elevations around 60 hours...

shh don't tell Scooter

[CoastalWx]

Well barring any flurries, I'm probably done for any good accumulations. 

 

I seriously fell into a deep funk by the end of January. I'm usually even keeled and I tried to stay mellow, but the endless fookjobs really started to get to me. Yes, I admit the crappy winters got to me. I'm man enough to say it. As someone who looks forward to winter every year..it really sucked to get royally hosed like that. Sorry Tip..but even the strong can get weighted down by passion.

 

But the turnaround was nothing short of epic. I remember when we started to talk about more southern stream involvement helping us out when we were ending January, and boy did it ever come. This was an incredible stretch, one that I will always remember. That blizzard and the surprise 18"+ were the highlights for me. It's funny how you can totally get hosed....and then climo just comes in and says  "don't worry...I got you this time...." I'm just in awe of this turnaround, it saved my life. 

[CoastalWx]

shh don't tell Scooter

 

??  I don't live at Sunday River. 

[Ginx snewx]

?? I don't live at Sunday River.

nice snowy Monday afternoon for them

[CoastalWx]

Boundary layer is torched outside of SNE and most spots even in NNE.

[nzucker]

Boundary layer is torched outside of SNE and most spots even in NNE.

How about later on with the wave Monday night into Tuesday morning down here in NYC metro? GFS and ECM have 850s nearing -10C so it should be cold enough.