Logan11 Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 I need 2.6 inches to get to 70. Not a banner year, but at least that makes it respctable. Hopefully April can at least deliver that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Maybe out here we have a little better shot at some anafrontal activity. The GFS had a wave for a few runs, but lost it. Could see rain showers end as a few wet snowflakes early Tuesday morning. 12z Euro continues to show the signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 JB not buying a Cold April-goes 7-10 days of cold and then warmth overwhelms....Going at or above normal for most locales nationwide with warmth centered out west....FWIW. You asked me earlier today if I still had snowcover and the answer is that I do not, but I still have some deep piles that will probably make it into April. Snowcover here is spotty and elevation/exposure dependant. My neighbors that face north have about 75% cover in their yards. Below about 750' there is no cover at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 I'd still watch that 4/6 period....Euro is close, but no cigar. Has a northern stream piece diving in..southern stream gets ugly looking...it would almost be better if the S stream wasn't even there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 I'd still watch that 4/6 period....Euro is close, but no cigar. Has a northern stream piece diving in..southern stream gets ugly looking...it would almost be better if the S stream wasn't even there.Ryans calling for 70's during that same timeframe lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Ryans calling for 70's during that same timeframe lol 70's? Sweet! TORCH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Monday could be sneaky warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Monday could be sneaky warm. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Ryans calling for 70's during that same timeframe lol He's talking about 4/5...which the Euro shows as a brief warmup, but verbatim its probably 50s to perhaps a 60F in the HFD to SE MA torch zone .850 temps don't really get much higher than 0C....but it could end up warmer in future runs if that ridge out ahead of the next shortwave amps up more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Monday could be sneaky warm. I wonder if we get rain flipping to snow with the frontal passage monday evening. Could be one of those weird things where its 52F at 5pm and then 34F by 10pm with snow falling before it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Monday could be sneaky warm.Thats one of those coastal plain torches while hills stay cool with massive lapse rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Thats one of those coastal plain torches while hills stay cool with massive lapse rates LOL. Just switch to torch mode already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Thats one of those coastal plain torches while hills stay cool with massive lapse rates A Bob Soccer-practice Special...58F in TAN while its 46F in ORH type of a day. Though we won't know ho wmuch it torches until we get a better handle on cloud cover. It could torch back this way too if the front gets a little more steeply sloped on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Thats one of those coastal plain torches while hills stay cool with massive lapse rates Not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 I wonder if we get rain flipping to snow with the frontal passage monday evening. Could be one of those weird things where its 52F at 5pm and then 34F by 10pm with snow falling before it ends. Certainly a sharp frontal passage. I just would like to get something with that airmass later next week, even if not here on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Certainly a sharp frontal passage. I just would like to get something with that airmass later next week, even if not here on the coast. Euro is a little slower and steeper with the front...so we'd probably torch pretty good on Monday too...but sometimes we'll get the leading edge of the sfc front at noontime to stop our temp rise while eastern areas torch another 10F...but sometimes the front gets kind of stuck back by Mitch in the Berkshires...he's reporting 36F with RA/SN mix at 5pm while its nude Soccer Practice with 60F in eastern MA. The airmass behind that thing is pretty impressive though. Could be a pretty cold couple days on Tues/Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Bring on the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Euro is a little slower and steeper with the front...so we'd probably torch pretty good on Monday too...but sometimes we'll get the leading edge of the sfc front at noontime to stop our temp rise while eastern areas torch another 10F...but sometimes the front gets kind of stuck back by Mitch in the Berkshires...he's reporting 36F with RA/SN mix at 5pm while its nude Soccer Practice with 60F in eastern MA. The airmass behind that thing is pretty impressive though. Could be a pretty cold couple days on Tues/Wed. LOL at the soccer references. I noticed a gradient pattern trying to set up after next week. That could be disaster for the tulip tip-towers around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 LOL at the soccer references. I noticed a gradient pattern trying to set up after next week. That could be disaster for the tulip tip-towers around here. Outdoor season begins in full force this weekend. Games every week from now till June. This weather is perfect for outdoors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 LOL at the soccer references. I noticed a gradient pattern trying to set up after next week. That could be disaster for the tulip tip-towers around here. Yup DT all over it. Northern tier folks shiver and dress in winter gear huddled around garbage can fires at aoccer games while south of 40 tap dance into spring and 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Yup DT all over it. Northern tier folks shiver and dress in winter gear huddled around garbage can fires at aoccer games while south of 40 tap dance into spring and 70's. Should be good when the kids get injured because of cold extremities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Canada is legit freezing in the long range, so its definitely a concern for the northern tier to watch how that behaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Should be good when the kids get injured because of cold extremities. They did just fine outside when it was 35F 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Should be good when the kids get injured because of cold extremities.Our outdoor season doesn't start until April 28th. Around here folks realize April us not a warm outdoorsy month, so they play indoor till then. In far SE areas they are many times able to get out even in Jan and Feb and kick the ball around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2013 Author Share Posted March 28, 2013 We have about a 0.2 correlation with the NAO in April..its a mild cool signal for us, but significantly lower than the winter...encroaching on the realm of useless. The western US is where the NAO influence seems to migrate for whatever reason...wavelengths I guess. I can tell you right now this is conceptually wrong. If the NAO is -4 standard deviations on May 1st, and it is west based, it is going to have a vastly stronger correlation on the field than your mere .2 and we have seen that in the past. 1977 may featured a pulse -NAO event the drilled the negative anomaly into the NE and attending odd-ball snow event. The month as whole as around -.75 If using that logic is final, then: "NAO and PNA are almost completely meaningless by April. I would favor a WARMER than normal April for a chunk of the middle CONUS and probably the southeast just based on what ensembles show over the first 10-12 days of the month", would have to carry just as much predictive skill as your cooler version. Also, how can the ensembles (assuming Euro) be "showing" a cool pattern, when the nightly teleconnectors agree with the operational layout and have warm anomaly air by the 7th of the month. Something is off there. huh. Granted the 12z backed off a bit ... but that only figures...ha Anyway, I have read tons of material showing stronger correlations on modulating the climate in eastern N/A and western Euro from NAOs by season - to think that if one rests about that .2 as a reason to refute or support a warm or cool outlook, they're not using the analysis the right way. The PNA on the other hand does begin to show seasonal breakdown in correlation as the month ages -- NCEP doesn't even correlated it to the other indices between June 1 and August 31. But I have trouble with that too... That statement is only true for normal season wave lengths -- if there is anomalously longer wave length period of any given month, its applicably increases during the duration. This is how/why I personally identified the heat wave in early June, 2008 back when. I just sense that folks want to toss out teleconnector points prematurely based on "wanting" a colder canvas to the outlook for April. I hope that's not what's going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 I can tell you right now this is conceptually wrong. If the NAO is -4 standard deviations on May 1st, and it is west based, it is going to have a vastly stronger correlation on the field than your mere .2 and we have seen that in the past. 1977 may featured a pulse -NAO event the drilled the negative anomaly into the NE and attending odd-ball snow event. The month as whole as around -.75 If using that logic is final, then: "NAO and PNA are almost completely meaningless by April. I would favor a WARMER than normal April for a chunk of the middle CONUS and probably the southeast just based on what ensembles show over the first 10-12 days of the month", would have to carry just as much predictive skill as your cooler version. Also, how can the ensembles (assuming Euro) be "showing" a cool pattern, when the nightly teleconnectors agree with the operational layout and have warm anomaly air by the 7th of the month. Something is off there. huh. Anyway, I have read tons of material showing stronger correlations on modulating the climate in eastern N/A and western Euro from NAOs by season - to think that if one rests about that .2 as a reason to refute or support a warm or cool outlook, they're not using the analysis the right way. The PNA on the other hand does begin to show season breakdown in correlation as the month ages -- NCEP doesn't even correlated it to the other indices between June 1 and August 31. But I have trouble with that too... That statement is only true for normal season wave lengths -- if there is anomalously longer wave length period of any given month, its applicably increases during the duration. This is how/why I personally identified the heat wave in early June, 2008 back when. I just sense that folks want to toss out teleconnector points prematurely based on "wanting" a colder canvas to the outlook for April. I hope that's not what's going on here. The numbers are what they are...you can believe them or not. They are available on ESRL. Your example of a -4 SD -NAO and west based is a specific extreme example and geographically specific as well...so that is not proof that the NAO has more than a 0.2 correlation overall. If you sense I am throwing out teleconnectors because I "want" a colder outcome, then I have no idea what to tell you John...I use the teleconnectors with very mild weight in April because that is statistically what is supported. If I see a -4 SD block over northeast Quebec, then obviously that would be one thing...that is a lot different than looking at a CPC bar graph that says the NAO is going negative and the PNA is rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 The numbers are what they are...you can believe them or not. They are available on ESRL. Your example of a -4 SD -NAO and west based is a specific extreme example and geographically specific as well...so that is not proof that the NAO has more than a 0.2 correlation overall. If you sense I am throwing out teleconnectors because I "want" a colder outcome, then I have no idea what to tell you John...I use the teleconnectors with very mild weight in April because that is statistically what is supported. If I see a -4 SD block over northeast Quebec, then obviously that would be one thing...that is a lot different than looking at a CPC bar graph that says the NAO is going negative and the PNA is rising. Tip accusing Will of wishcasting, WTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Wheeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Didn't we have a monster storm in April 1987? I think it was like the 3rd or 4th week too.... Alright...I'll answer my own question from earlier... From April 29th, 1987..... Surprise April Snow Paralyzes New England End-of-April showers turned into a snowstorm that stunned New England with up to 21 inches of heavy, wet snow today, snarling traffic for motorists who had removed snow tires and leaving thousands without electricity. Two days before the storm, Concord, N.H., had warmed into the 70s and flowers had started blooming. New Hampshire Gov. John H. Sununu ordered state offices closed until noon to reduce the number of people getting in the way of road crews, and some schools were closed in Rhode Island. "It's an absolutely awful sight. We're bearing with it as well as we can," police dispatcher Janet Bagley said in Foster, R.I. But she added, "It's actually very, very pretty out there." Record in Worcester Heavier snowfall amounts included 21 inches in north-central Massachusetts at Ashburnham and Lunenburg; 18 inches at Francestown, N.H.; 17 inches at Mont Vernon, N.H.; 15 inches at Burrillville and Glocester, R.I., and 13 inches at Brassua, Maine. Worcester in east-central Massachusetts received at least 17 inches, the most snow on record so late in the season and the largest spring snowstorm on record. Power lines felled by the weight of the snow or falling branches left about 40,000 people without power this morning in the Worcester, Framingham and Merrimack Valley areas of Massachusetts, utility officials said. In Rhode Island, about 7,000 customers of Blackstone Valley Electric Co. were without power for up to an hour Tuesday night, and scattered outages continued today. At least half a dozen radio stations in New Hampshire were knocked off the air. The airport at Worcester, Mass., was closed today and more than 150 snowplows were called out. The city's snow-removal budget already had a deficit of at least $1 million, and the storm was expected to cost an additional $50,000 to $60,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Here is the April NAO correlation....you can see the highest numbers have migrated out into the western US for whatever reason with the change of seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.