weathafella Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 It's rare to have more than a light accumulation in April. It happens but rarely. First clear day here in Chicagoland. Back to Boston tonight timely for a nice weekend after struggling to get up to work tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 It's rare to have more than a light accumulation in April. It happens but rarely. First clear day here in Chicagoland. Back to Boston tonight timely for a nice weekend after struggling to get up to work tomorrow. ORH has 72% April accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 ORH has 72% April accums Well he said more than "light" accumulations. That 70%+ is anything that is measurable. For ORH, we get an advisory event (3" or greater) in about 30% of our Aprils since 1950 (19 times). There were a few Aprils that had more than one advisory event though, so the total number of advisory or better events in April since 1950 would be a bit higher than 19. Around 24 or so I think. There were a lot of 1-2" type snowfalls...and actually about 6 snowfalls of over 2" but less than 3" which just misses advisory...though weenie ridge probably got advisory in those ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Well he said more than "light" accumulations. That 70%+ is anything that is measurable. For ORH, we get an advisory event (3" or greater) in about 30% of our Aprils since 1950 (19 times). There were a few Aprils that had more than one advisory event though, so the total number of advisory or better events in April since 1950 would be a bit higher than 19. Around 24 or so I think. There were a lot of 1-2" type snowfalls...and actually about 6 snowfalls of over 2" but less than 3" which just misses advisory...though weenie ridge probably got advisory in those ones. Yes Will....you interpreted my post correctly. Even BOS averages something like 2 inches brut that includes some bombs skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 ORH has 72% April accums more than where? Chicago? Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2013 Author Share Posted March 28, 2013 It's rare to have more than a light accumulation in April. It happens but rarely. First clear day here in Chicagoland. Back to Boston tonight timely for a nice weekend after struggling to get up to work tomorrow. It happens every year, and it still manages to sneak up on some people. The days tick by, March 10, 11, 12 ... 18, 19 ..., and there may even be a struggling threat or two in the models amid of myriad of depictions that resemble winter time. Then you arrive closer to the 1st of April the charts just abruptly look different and lost all the wintry appeal, and you're going, 'when did that happen'. I think it just happened over the last 48 hours of charts. And not just in the operational Euro, it's entire ensemble mean. The nightly teleconnector for both the PNA and NAO have gone effectively warm in signal before even the first week of April is concluded. PNA enters negative, NAO enters positive domains, graphically. The AO is rising too; it waits perhaps another full week to 10 days to finally shed the negative bias we've enjoyed since Feb 1, but ... as I have discussed a few times in the recent past, there is a whopper back-ground climate mode that is warmer than normal ... all over the planet for that matter. These teleconnectors have had us in a kind of protected "cold bubble" for the past month, masking that longer term curve. Yesterday was above normal in ORH, with a N wind, -NAO, and 850's below 0C. Circa 1750, there's no way that happens given those constraints. What's liable to happen is, days find ways of averaging positive before the indexes even argue they should. The bubble pops before even getting there. This tendency to verify warmer than normal the majority of times has plagued; I see no reason why it won't return once this NAO/PNA structure relaxes, and it will do so right away. As is, the ga-ga range of the 00z Oper. Euro picked up where the 12z suggestion left off, and that is suggestion for a warm departure formulating by the 10th of April. The 00z is even more aggressive with that, perhaps by 7th or 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Well he said more than "light" accumulations. That 70%+ is anything that is measurable. For ORH, we get an advisory event (3" or greater) in about 30% of our Aprils since 1950 (19 times). There were a few Aprils that had more than one advisory event though, so the total number of advisory or better events in April since 1950 would be a bit higher than 19. Around 24 or so I think. There were a lot of 1-2" type snowfalls...and actually about 6 snowfalls of over 2" but less than 3" which just misses advisory...though weenie ridge probably got advisory in those ones. Didn't we have a monster storm in April 1987? I think it was like the 3rd or 4th week too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 They should make more use of "median" in weather data versus "mean". Mean means very little sometimes. Yes Will....you interpreted my post correctly. Even BOS averages something like 2 inches brut that includes some bombs skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 It happens every year, and it still manages to sneak up on some people. The days tick by, March 10, 11, 12 ... 18, 19 ..., and there may even be a struggling threat or two in the models amid of myriad of depictions that resemble winter time. Then you arrive closer to the 1st of April the charts just abruptly look different and lost all the wintry appeal, and you're going, 'when did that happen'. I think it just happened over the last 48 hours of charts. And not just in the operational Euro, it's entire ensemble mean. The nightly teleconnector for both the PNA and NAO have gone effectively warm in signal before even the first week of April is concluded. PNA enters negative, NAO enters positive domains, graphically. The AO is rising too; it waits perhaps another full week to 10 days to finally shed the negative bias we've enjoyed since Feb 1, but ... as I have discussed a few times in the recent past, there is a whopper back-ground climate mode that is warmer than normal ... all over the planet for that matter. These teleconnectors have had us in a kind of protected "cold bubble" for the past month, masking that longer term curve. Yesterday was above normal in ORH, with a N wind, -NAO, and 850's below 0C. Circa 1750, there's no way that happens given those constraints. What's liable to happen is, days find ways of averaging positive before the indexes even argue they should. The bubble pops before even getting there. This tendency to verify warmer than normal the majority of times has plagued; I see no reason why it won't return once this NAO/PNA structure relaxes, and it will do so right away. As is, the ga-ga range of the 00z Oper. Euro picked up where the 12z suggestion left off, and that is suggestion for a warm departure formulating by the 10th of April. The 00z is even more aggressive with that, perhaps by 7th or 8th. Trouble@WXRISKCOM: USA GRAIN WEATHER -- WEEK 3 and 4..takes us into Mid and late April -- look EXTREMELY cold. Maybe in top 10 coldest Aprils ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Well we are down to our last tree at the Museum which needs to be cut up. All told from the blizzard we lost 16. 10 White pine which either fell or split and permanently damaged and 6 dogwood. Nice day for this work. Thank god this beast fell away from the building, you can see the shadow of the building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Trouble @WXRISKCOM: USA GRAIN WEATHER -- WEEK 3 and 4..takes us into Mid and late April -- look EXTREMELY cold. Maybe in top 10 coldest Aprils ever! Couple of things, grain is the Midwest, and Tippy is wrong on one account this year the globe is cooler than average, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2013 Author Share Posted March 28, 2013 Trouble @WXRISKCOM: USA GRAIN WEATHER -- WEEK 3 and 4..takes us into Mid and late April -- look EXTREMELY cold. Maybe in top 10 coldest Aprils ever! Well, ...who knows how he formulates that opinion; at least I provided reasoning. I'm not making this stuff up. The Euro ensembles compute a positive NAO by April 6th, the PNA slipping negative in tandem. Over the last 20 years, verifying the dailies above normal has dominated the verification tendencies. Combining those to facets alone, not sure how anyone would conclude a historically cool April is on deck. Also ...I normally would put much stock in the D6-10 operational Euro, but when its ensemble mean is backing it in the teleconnector derivation, one should at least keep a eye on things. NCEP's actually picking up on this: ...THEN A TRANSITION OF SORTS DEVELOPS IN THECENTRAL PACIFIC THAT LEADS TO A MORE `TYPICAL` SPRING PATTERN OFSOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ENERGY IMPINGING UPON CALIFORNIA AND THEDESERT SOUTHWEST FOR DAY 6/7. THE 27/00Z ECMWF AND GFS PACKAGESINCLUDING THEIR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CAN BE RELIED UPON FOR THEOVERALL FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM THE DATELINE TO THE WESTERNATLANTIC. WITH ONLY A FEW EXCEPTIONS IN THEIR DETERMINISTICRUNS...THEY BOTH HANDLE THE TIMING OF CANADIAN INTRUSIONS QUITEWELL FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2013 Author Share Posted March 28, 2013 Couple of things, grain is the Midwest, and Tippy is wrong on one account this year the globe is cooler than average, No ... I am not wrong. I said the last 20 years!!!!! One year does not distract the longer term mode - DUH JESUS aside from the fact, I'm not sure you're right in making that statement, anyway because there are data sources that don't support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 No ... I am not wrong. I said the last 20 years!!!!! One year does not distract the longer term mode - DUH JESUS He aint gonna help you, you said, "as I have discussed a few times in the recent past, there is a whopper back-ground climate mode that is warmer than normal ... all over the planet for that matter" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2013 Author Share Posted March 28, 2013 He aint gonna help you, you said, "as I have discussed a few times in the recent past, there is a whopper back-ground climate mode that is warmer than normal ... all over the planet for that matter" EXACTLY ... you know what is really at stake here, getting Steve to admit to something he doesn't want to admit to - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Admit what? That climate warms and cools? Yeah that is true. You said you posted last 20 years, you did not in that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 So it looks like the warming has flat lined at around +0.2 for the last decade with the exception of a one year spike for about a year centered on 2010. If we smooth out the dip around 2007/08 it really would be flat at +0.2 since 2002. EXACTLY ... you know what is really at stake here, getting Steve to admit to something he doesn't want to admit to - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2013 Author Share Posted March 28, 2013 Admit what? That climate warms and cools? Yeah that is true. You said you posted last 20 years, you did not in that post. You don't want to admit that winter is over ... so you run around needle any posts that discuss however veraciously why that reality has risen upon us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 NAO and PNA are almost completely meaningless by April. I would favor a cooler than normal April for a chunk of the middle CONUS and probably the southeast just based on what ensembles show over the first 10-12 days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2013 Author Share Posted March 28, 2013 So it looks like the warming has flat lined at around +0.2 for the last decade with the exception of a one year spike for about a year centered on 2010. Yeah it looks that way, but it's difficult at best what to take away from that observation when that 30 year trend line is point up. It might, or might not mean anything along the curve that is by nature, rough. But I recently read a study that was derived by ice-core comparison/analysis, that the Earth just went through the fast warming for a single, 100-year span, than it has in the last 13,000 years! That's pretty amazing - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2013 Author Share Posted March 28, 2013 NAO and PNA are almost completely meaningless by April. I would favor a cooler than normal April for a chunk of the middle CONUS and probably the southeast just based on what ensembles show over the first 10-12 days of the month. Doubt it ... but, we'll see. And that is not true Will -- The NAO and PNA are very correlated. In fact, the NAO drills anomaly distribution into the NE clear into June. Not sure where you are coming up with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Doubt it ... but, we'll see. And that is not true Will -- The NAO and PNA are very correlated. In fact, the NAO drills anomaly distribution into the NE clear into June. Not sure where you are coming up with that. We have about a 0.2 correlation with the NAO in April..its a mild cool signal for us, but significantly lower than the winter...encroaching on the realm of useless. The western US is where the NAO influence seems to migrate for whatever reason...wavelengths I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 PNA seems to have a very weak correlation here in April, but it's a narrow skinny area on the ESRL correlation. Like Will said..probably has to due with wavelengths with both warm and cold weather occuring with + and - phases of the PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 It's going to snow and get cold next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 1-2' ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 JB not buying a Cold April-goes 7-10 days of cold and then warmth overwhelms....Going at or above normal for most locales nationwide with warmth centered out west....FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Trouble seems to be brewing @WXRISKCOM: USA GRAIN WEATHER -- WEEK 3 and 4..takes us into Mid and late April -- look EXTREMELY cold. Maybe in top 10 coldest Aprils ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 JB not buying a Cold April-goes 7-10 days of cold and then warmth overwhelms....Going at or above normal for most locales nationwide with warmth centered out west....FWIW. Trouble seems to be brewing @WXRISKCOM: USA GRAIN WEATHER -- WEEK 3 and 4..takes us into Mid and late April -- look EXTREMELY cold. Maybe in top 10 coldest Aprils ever! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Trouble seems to be brewing @WXRISKCOM: USA GRAIN WEATHER -- WEEK 3 and 4..takes us into Mid and late April -- look EXTREMELY cold. Maybe in top 10 coldest Aprils ever! lol, I think you missed a couple threads that you have not put this in yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Could see rain showers end as a few wet snowflakes early Tuesday morning. 12z Euro continues to show the signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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