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The Lion's end to March banter and discussion, part deux!


Typhoon Tip

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Wed night looks like the best shot for any measurable. It would probably be too light or varying intensity during the day to stick this time of year, but I could see some C-1" type stuff in the hills at night or early morning. No guarantee but it looks possible. Thursday will be nasty I think....I think I'll be taking the under on the MEX guidance of 45F.

Yeah looks like it could be a 1-3" for hills and mountains...especially with orographics. That seems like a good angle for the ORH Hills from the northeast.

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Not to me. Time to catch up on all the other stuff I put off while tracking. Reading, baseball, episodes of Homeland, sleep.

 

Yes, Going to get a couple rooms painted before full blown outside activities, Once golf season goes full swing, Everything else takes a back seat

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Euro had this one from d7 in. Amazing model. Yes messenger will argue it missed qpf max by 40 miles close in during a norlun but reality if you want to know the flavor, euro. It's regained form and is slapping every other piece of guidance around. Nam should be pithed.

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and another dud by the NAM which had several inches for southern sections as late as 24 hrs before the storm...

 

 

That's why the towel was basically thrown in after the 00z 3/24 ECMWF run...there was a hail mary attempt yesterday at 12z, but that was a fail (as most hail mary attempts are).

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Euro had this one from d7 in. Amazing model. Yes messenger will argue it missed qpf max by 40 miles close in during a norlun but reality if you want to know the flavor, euro. It's regained form and is slapping every other piece of guidance around. Nam should be pithed.

 

 

Smaller scale nuance systems like Norluns or weak coastal waves the Euro can miss...but if its a large scale wound up system, ECMWF inside 60 hours = money in the bank.

 

Euro did pretty well in the norlun anyway...it had that intense QPF just south of the MVY, but the RH and other features argued for a bit further north. It, along with the GGEM did as well as you can expect in a weird mesoscale event like that.

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Spun about an hour ago.   My impression on things is that we are in spring, not just by calendar, by airs as well.   

 

Sun shown through a milky cirrus deck with enough intensity, during a -NAO cool anomaly to force the temperatures in the lower 40s.  In fact, when the wind went calm for brief intervals, and the sun found a sky light, you find your self nostalgic for the larger picture of spring.  Feels lovely and not wintry at all.  

 

What happens from here on out in terms of modeling -vs verification is different than prior to the equinox.  You start to witness some of this as near as March 10 to 15th year to year, but it really becomes more evident now, and of course, only gets more discerned by day.   The sun diabatically normalizes the lower level thickness, unilaterally.  As it does, the ambient baroclinicity decays, fronts become less defined and amorphous, and this all serves to disconnect the deeper columnar cyclone structures in the means.  You'll see these awesome mid level structures come along the streams, replete with DPVA and so forth, since the lower level (1000mb - 850mb) thickness are warmed and the horizontal differentials are softened by the sun, you wind up with a lot of elevated junk over the top of instability CU fields.   

 

I have seen big mid level suggestions in April turn into dim sun through CU, and temps still in the low 50s, many times.  The same mid level feature in January would result a blizzard.  

 

Made a high of 44F here in Ayer, and with light wind and at times a warm sun, even the air smelled like spring.  That's certainly turning the corner.  The edges of this current MA system are rain, while it snows at 34F in the core.   I bet there isn't much accumulation from this in southern NJ; it'll be interesting to see what they end up with on the ground. 

 

We can obviously still get snow ... any month of the year.  It just has to be a excruciating anomaly, particularly after the first week of April.   The first day of, when you will have achieved August 31, late summer sun intensity.   

 

I am wondering if the 00z teleconnectors are just on crack for having suddenly collapsed cold ...er.   They were never "warm" signaling, per se, but they were certainly not flagging another AO collapse for almost 10 days of monitoring, and all at once did so last night.   Even if so ... those teleconnector spreads won't mean the same thing now as they did even a month ago.  

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This time of year stinks with nothing to track. 

 

Welcome to April - it's already here.   My last opine says it all.  Unless you have a pretty excessive anomaly, we start planning for next year if winter is your thing.   Frankly, I'm looking forward to turning the soil in my garden this week.   The last of the snow is about 15 minutes from disappearing, and the higher sun angle should have the bed pretty thawed out and ready by the weekend.  

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Luckily the little one will keep me busy from the next 6-7 months of boredom.

Just you wait...lol.  These days it seems hard.

 

Later on, they get into "activities". Holy crap. Sitting at baseball games, soccer practices, play rehearsals, scouts, gymnastics, play dates, etc etc etc.  And being a parent leader of any of these takes up a huge amount of time.

 

 

Worth it.  And then to get the day when your littlest one rides a chairlift for the first time, and when the older one asks how the euro looked.

 

Priceless

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Just you wait...lol.  These days it seems hard.

 

Later on, they get into "activities". Holy crap. Sitting at baseball games, soccer practices, play rehearsals, scouts, gymnastics, play dates, etc etc etc.  And being a parent leader of any of these takes up a huge amount of time.

 

 

Worth it.  And then to get the day when your littlest one rides a chairlift for the first time, and when the older one asks how the euro looked.

 

Priceless

He already has a cooler ski jacket than most of us..lol. 

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What to look forward to:

Back door season

Cold pool season

Spring cutoffs

I love 2 seasons, winter and summer. I dislike the others although a spring mild day while rare insome springs is spectacular.

Not a worse time of year than the next 2 months. Just pure misery. Unless we can go right into summer like last year in Morch, most folks would rather spring not be a season
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