ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Not for those of us still in the thick of the game You really aren't in it anymore than BOS...maybe for a sloppy inch or two. This one is slipping away pretty quickly. We'll need a minor miracle to make this a notable event for anyone in our region. Perhaps there's still an outside shot at 3-5 down in S CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Still in the game!!!Sunny and 47!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 You really aren't in it anymore than BOS...maybe for a sloppy inch or two. This one is slipping away pretty quickly. We'll need a minor miracle to make this a notable event for anyone in our region. Perhaps there's still an outside shot at 3-5 down in S CT. Ssshhh. He's expecting 6" to the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Welp, bottom line for this Monday into Tuesday time frame, the magnitude of the -NAO really doesn't statistically correlate well for us to cash in on that MA system. The storm track is just too suppressed - ie, too much of a good thing becomes a bad thing in having such an overwhelming cold signal. Speaking on behalf of (for) the winter lovers, one takes risk when rationalizing, "let's get the cold in her first", an oft posted mantra on the site. Because, yes ... you need cold for your snow, no question, but these tasty cold teleconnectors progged from 7 days ago are currently killing your effort frankly by being too overwhelming. The mantra really needs more than just 'getting the cold in her first'. Kind of reminds me of the old strategy with Aladdin's lamp and the genie manipulation tactic: "As my first wish, I wish for an infinite number of wishes..." Unfortunately, if wishes were horses, beggars would ride trumps every time. Muse aside ... it really is true, better storms frequency has always been correlated better to changing indices. Having the NAO statically driven into the Earth like this, isn't one of those times. You know what is interesting though - the blizzard in February took place in the absence of any meaningful, preceding teleconnector signal; so there are rarities that evolve. Duh. I think the MA gets a late season run in with blue snow and cold rain, and then we watch rad tickle the SC under cirrus dimming pal sun, spring muting cold breezes, as being the favored outcome at this time. We'll see - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Ssshhh. He's expecting 6" to the Pike. 12z Euro is the hail mary I think....gotta complete it otherwise waive this one goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 You really aren't in it anymore than BOS...maybe for a sloppy inch or two. This one is slipping away pretty quickly. We'll need a minor miracle to make this a notable event for anyone in our region. Perhaps there's still an outside shot at 3-5 down in S CT. Hush now..Scooter has ruled out even light snow for everyone. Thinking sunny and upper 40's for Monday..Think maybe having heavy rrhea got to him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Congrats SEMA, bullseye p http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130323&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=EWB&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.5817649971682&mLON=-71.78621272744738&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 12z Euro is the hail mary I think....gotta complete it otherwise waive this one goodbye. That vort lobe sucks. I wish that would just vanish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 That vort lobe sucks. I wish that would just vanish. Feb 2010-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Hush now..Scooter has ruled out even light snow for everyone. Thinking sunny and upper 40's for Monday..Think maybe having heavy rrhea got to him You left out the part of the souj coast getting some snow. I just think this is a non event unless a sloppy inch gets you off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Correct. When I refer to my temps I'm just saying with respect to previous days high temperatures...not the climate avg. high temp. So for the 22nd and beyond I just meant I think temps will cool slightly compared to the warmth we will see on the 18-19th. There should be another SW induced by a rwt somewhere in the 24-28 time frame but it's too early to nail it down yet so I just said it will bring temps down slightly beyond the 24th. But I think the last week of the month will still end up averaging with temps slightly above climate norms even with that slight dip in temps from the cooler air behind that rwt when ever it arrives. Matching the AO correlations. I am also concerned about the propensity to register warm anomalies as part of the last 30-year climate flux, which as we all know is a warming one. We have all our outlooks, derived from various more or less veracious reasoning ... then you got to like almost just assume a 2-3F add-on in keeping with that unrelenting bias. This point leaps out at me upon reading your idea for the last week of April - because in the absence of any cold off-set in the means (such as we are in a "cold bubble" relative to climo, now), we probably go back to the warm default bias. That definitely adds some credence to any particular Mets thinking for warmth as a baser kind of canvas for their respective outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Well I may sound like a greedy SOB, but really was hoping for this to work out. That would have been the icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Nothing happening here, meaning Monday-Tuesday is a miss. The light at the end of that tunnel is Spring. No denying. Was a great run while it lasted! So begins the temperature anomalies for CT. I'm ready - ZZ Top beard came off. A true sign of Spring personally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The first two weeks of April look troughy in the east for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Well I may sound like a greedy SOB, but really was hoping for this to work out. That would have been the icing on the cake. 3/31 will deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Well I may sound like a greedy SOB, but really was hoping for this to work out. That would have been the icing on the cake. Again,, for some of us it may work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Well I may sound like a greedy SOB, but really was hoping for this to work out. That would have been the icing on the cake.I am not sure this is gone but maybe but has that March 2006 look http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/IMAGES/COOP/CNT72/2006/20060212_072_total.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 This reminds me of that April 3-4 storm in 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 3/31 will deliver.I took the weenie ride through Princeton on the way home last night, wow. Man analogs are not quitting as you said still chances. scooter quit but still game on in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I took the weenie ride through Princeton on the way home last night, wow. Man analogs are not quitting as you said still chances. scooter quit but still game on in the future. Reading comprehension? Look back at what I said about April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I am also concerned about the propensity to register warm anomalies as part of the last 30-year climate flux, which as we all know is a warming one. We have all our outlooks, derived from various more or less veracious reasoning ... then you got to like almost just assume a 2-3F add-on in keeping with that unrelenting bias. This point leaps out at me upon reading your idea for the last week of April - because in the absence of any cold off-set in the means (such as we are in a "cold bubble" relative to climo, now), we probably go back to the warm default bias. That definitely adds some credence to any particular Mets thinking for warmth as a baser kind of canvas for their respective outlooks. Very true and valid point I have to agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Here is the 12z GGEM snow accum thru 72. E CT/ RI jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Reading comprehension? Look back at what I said about April.Just busting, looking forward to the April 96 redeaux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Again,, for some of us it may work out. 3-6 south of the Pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 JMA north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 JMA north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 JMA north JMA/NAM blend is always a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 See ya later on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 See ya later on the euro. Yeah hail mary incomplete...airmailed out of bounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yeah hail mary incomplete...airmailed out of bounds. It's over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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