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The Lion's end to March banter and discussion, part deux!


Typhoon Tip

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Pretty impressive coastal cyclogenesis underway. 

 

 

maxima in sfc vorticity co-located with strong sfc convergence associated with cyclogenesis and frontogenesis pic.twitter.com/iyglqB2GMA

 

Surface deformation and axes of dilatation ... all the frontal components of a classic developing coastal system pic.twitter.com/UmeJVuRY0J

 

Strong forcing for ascent developing along the M/A coast. Very high 0-3km SRH >1500 pic.twitter.com/MayXKEqKjf

 

Surface low intensifying east of Cape Hatteras. Very strong coastal frontogenesis in progress. pic.twitter.com/3SOJ9IvuJc

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Pretty impressive coastal cyclogenesis underway. 

 

 

maxima in sfc vorticity co-located with strong sfc convergence associated with cyclogenesis and frontogenesis pic.twitter.com/iyglqB2GMA

 

Surface deformation and axes of dilatation ... all the frontal components of a classic developing coastal system pic.twitter.com/UmeJVuRY0J

 

Strong forcing for ascent developing along the M/A coast. Very high 0-3km SRH >1500 pic.twitter.com/MayXKEqKjf

 

Surface low intensifying east of Cape Hatteras. Very strong coastal frontogenesis in progress. pic.twitter.com/3SOJ9IvuJc

 

Awesome links, thanks!

 

NAM is a whiff but geezus it's so close.  Haha...payback for the blizzard that should have missed by 200 miles.  Can hope that it sneaks north for the coast (or that the NAM blows which it may...low looks to be going pretty good already)

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Awesome links, thanks!

 

NAM is a whiff but geezus it's so close.  Haha...payback for the blizzard that should have missed by 200 miles.  Can hope that it sneaks north for the coast (or that the NAM blows which it may...low looks to be going pretty good already)

I don't know what happened to the Nam. It use to be reliable. Now, it's an awful model.

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I don't know what happened to the Nam. It use to be reliable. Now, it's an awful model.

 

It's probably okay tonight.  The faster pace of the initial system doesn't bode well when the timing on the old ULL hasn't.  It runs into a brick wall before it can ever get up to NYC/S CT and subsequently squeezes out maybe just scraping the islands.

 

I don't think that's a bad theme at this point, TBH

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Climo is rearing its ugly head now and winter wx is rapidly facing life support. It was a nice finish here even though we got sloppy seconds from some of the biggies. The extended doesn't look warm, but days and days of u40s and 50s are lurking with Naperil on the doorstep. One of these mornngs Torch Kevin will awake before a run and we will be back to BDL readings.

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Climo is rearing its ugly head now and winter wx is rapidly facing life support. It was a nice finish here even though we got sloppy seconds from some of the biggies. The extended doesn't look warm, but days and days of u40s and 50s are lurking with Naperil on the doorstep. One of these mornngs Torch Kevin will awake before a run and we will be back to BDL readings.

 

It's coming soon. Getting 50s this time of year is cake. The sooner he flips to BDL/summer scorcher/LL sycophant the better for his health and the rest of us.

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I'll give until tomorrow, once this storm actually has whiffed.  They, all eyes on the the BDL tarmac.

 

I give it another 2 weeks. Before long Kevin and Joe will be holding hands, skipping across the BDL tarmac, singing about high dews, downslope dandys and torch conditions. 

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Climo is rearing its ugly head now and winter wx is rapidly facing life support. It was a nice finish here even though we got sloppy seconds from some of the biggies. The extended doesn't look warm, but days and days of u40s and 50s are lurking with Naperil on the doorstep. One of these mornngs Torch Kevin will awake before a run and we will be back to BDL readings.

I was never torch Kevin..Just get me some nice high dewpoints.

 

Like I said i hate spring. if we are done"which the Euro says we are nowhere near done" then flip to summer and bypass the misery of the next 2 months

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Climo is rearing its ugly head now and winter wx is rapidly facing life support. It was a nice finish here even though we got sloppy seconds from some of the biggies. The extended doesn't look warm, but days and days of u40s and 50s are lurking with Naperil on the doorstep. One of these mornngs Torch Kevin will awake before a run and we will be back to BDL readings.

 

Yeah its getting there... I still have more snow in my yard than I did in January I think, lol, but you can feel it when the sun comes out this time of year.  Snow was dry and powdery down at home until yesterday afternoon with a bit of sun and mid 30s, now this morning it is rock solid crunch. 

 

After this recent 10-day run of snow/winter up here, I'm good.  This got us at least closer to average and over 100" in town (263" now at 3,000ft), which is like the minimum benchmark for a decent/average winter.  I could go for a week of 15% RH 50F and sunny type weather right about now.

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Yes I've been using mildup for a while. I may snag downslope dandy as well when the time is right. 

 

Bob has also stolen tickle from you. 

 

Post the video clip of the first time you use downslope dandy on air... that's got me cracking up.  "It's going to be a downslope dandy today in the Hartford area..."

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At least Donny S still understand how it's a winter pattern

Some early morning thoughts...

 

1. The storm affecting the Plains States is behaving quite well so far. Already, Kansas City has reached 4.5" snow bringing its seasonal total to 30.3". That is the 18th highest figure on record and just below 30.4" for winter 1958-59.

 

2. The storm will very likely track into the Ohio Valley with secondary development occurring along the East Coast in response to the severe blocking. Given the confluence and blocking, the storm is unlikely to track as far to the north as some of the NAM runs had been suggesting. That means that snowfall amounts north of central New Jersey will likely fall off. NYC should still receive a light accumulation, making 2013 the first time there have been 3 accumulations after March 15 since 1965. Philadelphia probably has the best chance to receive a moderate accumulation of snow out of the major East Coast cities. There, the idea of a 2"-4"/3"-6" type accumulation continues to look good. Parts of western Virginia and western Maryland into interior portions of southern and central Pennsylvania have the highest chance of receiving 6" or more of wet snow.

 

3. The generally colder than normal pattern is likely to persist into April. There continue to be some hints of an outbreak of unseasonably cold air that could allow for some snow in such cities as Chicago, Cleveland, Albany, Worcester, and Boston, along with the chance that NYC could see its first April freeze since 2007.

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