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The Lion's end to March banter and discussion, part deux!


Typhoon Tip

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Well did the ens lose the snowstorm early April and subsequent bitter shot?

 

 

The ensembles never had a bitter shot...so not sure where you got that from. They still have a signal for something around 4/2 though. But that is 9-10 days out. There;s also a weak signal for something near 4/5.

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I dunno... odds don't really favor another advisory event IMO (though maybe a 40/60 kinda deal) for a large portion of the region. Climo gets ugly this time of year. Different story for ORH, Berks, etc.

climo for Midlo was equal to our Mid April today so ya never know. 1996 type year it seems.
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I dunno... odds don't really favor another advisory event IMO (though maybe a 40/60 kinda deal) for a large portion of the region. Climo gets ugly this time of year. Different story for ORH, Berks, etc. 

 

 

Well I wasn't specifying advisory amounts. But agreed that the lowlands are nearly out of time for something like that. But as long as troughiness is signal over the east, there's going to be some chances for snow. We're fighting climo pretty rapidly now so there's a chance some of those events could be rain too...even with temps well below average.

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Well I wasn't specifying advisory amounts. But agreed that the lowlands are nearly out of time for something like that. But as long as troughiness is signal over the east, there's going to be some chances for snow. We're fighting climo pretty rapidly now so there's a chance some of those events could be rain too...even with temps well below average.

Yeah agreed. I'm all set with snow if its less than advisory threshold.

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Winds shift to the E, not convinced that the south coast of CT and CC do not kiss the deform.

 

 

They actually probably will...but they need to do more than just get the outer edges of it for more than a sloppy inch or two. If they can get into the meat of it, then that is where it could get better.

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Lol NWS ric area said rain slushy on grassy surfaces, it's all snow sn+ rapidly accumulating

 

There's been a lot of juggling today.  Precip is flying in faster, euro and others were too slow.  Even the NAM appears to be too slow.

 

This storm will level the field.  We had a low that had no business blasting us from 500 miles away, now we'll have the 980mb low near the BM that may potentially miss all of us.  I still expect some bouncing with the 0z, mainly because timing/positioning of the main features seems to be lacking particularly with the Euro.

 

GGEM seemed pretty darn good.

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There's been a lot of juggling today. Precip is flying in faster, euro and others were too slow. Even the NAM appears to be too slow.

This storm will level the field. We had a low that had no business blasting us from 500 miles away, now we'll have the 980mb low near the BM that may potentially miss all of us. I still expect some bouncing with the 0z, mainly because timing/positioning of the main features seems to be lacking particularly with the Euro.

GGEM seemed pretty darn good.

But RIC issued at 512 when it was sn+ first thing I noticed at GYX no windows in the work area.
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But RIC issued at 512 when it was sn+ first thing I noticed at GYX no windows in the work area.

 

System is flying along.  It'll be interesting to see what the forward speed does later.  I haven't followed closely today, I wonder if it'll get Dikembe Mutombo'd later because it'll be running into the confluence before it has any chance to lift slightly.  Alternately, it may give it a little more time to lift up on the eastern side.

 

Tough forecast I think it's all or nothing.

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System is flying along. It'll be interesting to see what the forward speed does later. I haven't followed closely today, I wonder if it'll get Dikembe Mutombo'd later because it'll be running into the confluence before it has any chance to lift slightly. Alternately, it may give it a little more time to lift up on the eastern side.

Tough forecast I think it's all or nothing.

my wind is east
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