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The Lion's end to March banter and discussion, part deux!


Typhoon Tip

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And maybe 10 miles south around southern NY....   Minutia I guess.  Dying stuff from the old upper system gets some snow to just about BGM tomorrow.

 

0z will lock better across the board.  The storms firing off the Carolinas were a source of debate amongst the models.  Once that seems to happen, the next main runs are fine.

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Maybe halfway between bos and dc. Ie philly burbs.I dunno I'd take se pa around 2k ftw. That poster in tobeyhanna (sp?) At 2k would have some great pics if banding sets up near him

 

Bottom line I'd think NCEP has the right idea:

With the old ULL/confluence over NE

FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/GEFS MEAN

FCST CONFIDENCE: LOW

 

With the newly developing system:

FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF

FCST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

 

 

 

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I could see higher amounts outer cape / south coast... otherwise this seems pretty reasonable

At least we squeezed a map out of this one

 

NWS 443pm:

attachicon.gifStormTotalSnowFcst.png

 

More than I thought they'd go with...seems quite possible there's nothing north of 5 or so miles of the coast.

 

ACK/MVY if they can stay snow manage to pull some 2-4+, everyone else is really scratching right now.

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I'll be perfectly content with a wide whiff this time.  Picking up the new wheels on Tuesday--don't want any splatter right out of the gate.

 

Springlike today--strong sun and mild temps of 40.7 = fair amount of melting.

 

38.6/22 now.

 

Still need some flooding rains to clean the roads, otherwise salt rocks chipsky.

 

GFS now looks like the GGEM so the consensus is overwhelming now.  ACK and MVY stand the best chance of getting a decent shot.  If the old rules apply about banding setting up a little NW of models it may make it onto the actual cape and extreme south coast(s).  Otherwise, a windy, cold, dry day or two ahead.

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Still need some flooding rains to clean the roads, otherwise salt rocks chipsky.

 

GFS now looks like the GGEM so the consensus is overwhelming now.  ACK and MVY stand the best chance of getting a decent shot.  If the old rules apply about banding setting up a little NW of models it may make it onto the actual cape and extreme south coast(s).  Otherwise, a windy, cold, dry day or two ahead.

 

18z GFS and GGEM fit NOAA map well, Euro more stingy.

 

Event has yet to happen, but while our memory is fresh... guidance seems to be converging towards Euro yet again. Like most events this winter, we would have been spared any confusion (and hope, in this case) if we just ignored NCEP guidance.

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Maybe halfway between bos and dc. Ie philly burbs.I dunno I'd take se pa around 2k ftw. That poster in tobeyhanna (sp?) At 2k would have some great pics if banding sets up near him

Tobyhanna is nowhere near Philly, it's up in the Poconos. Too far north.

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