Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 1-3 seems the best forecast for now. We are one tickle away from a bigger hit though I might be in a better spot than you for accumulating snowfall being further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro looks weaker and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 A wee bit south, but a whiff for most away from the s coast beaches. Good luck with 5-10 in Fairfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 A wee bit south, but a whiff for most away from the s coast beaches. Good luck with 5-10 in Fairfield. Meh. Seems to do this with every 12z run in this pattern only to come back to some degree at 0z. Plus like I said, at the beginning of this pattern it couldn't get within 100 miles with the .25 to .5" line with 6 hours lead time. I'll be more interested to see what the Euro ENS do. The RGEM/GGEM seem pretty reasonable to me, with a nod to the sharper cutoff on the RGEM somewhere around Patrick in Falmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 A wee bit south, but a whiff for most away from the s coast beaches. Good luck with 5-10 in Fairfield. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 euro SE and weak good nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 euro SE and weak good nite A day late on that. This one was done yesterday...at least from the standpoint of anyone getting more than 1-3/2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GEFS creeped north. Gets the Cape decently. the euro ens can put this one to sleep, if they are close to op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 the euro ens can put this one to sleep, if they are close to op It's asleep for 90% of us anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 the euro ens can put this one to sleep, if they are close to opTheyve been well north of the op with some members amped . The op Euro may be right but there's a good chance it's too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 where is that Brooklyn? Chaplin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Theyve been well north of the op with some members amped . The op Euro may be right but there's a good chance it's too far south You'd fitt in with the NYC forum...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 12z Euro pretty ugly for anyone in SNE looking for siggy snows, Even down towards NY..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 12z Euro is actually a little WNW of the earlier 0z run with the low. But as has been the case most of the winter the 12z runs are always less moist than the 0z. Odd. One of the immediate issues is the handling of the initial pulse off the Carolinas. Clearly a circulation exists out there http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=MHX&loop=yes Another interesting point that has come up in some of the earlier scrapers. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ILX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes I'd argue that the GFS while overdone, had a better handle on the precip speed and strength as it's moved SE of Decatur. Euro seemed too slow, and too far south. Again JMHO. But it's done this before this winter and when it has it's ended up too flat here. I'm not that worried about the OP Euro as it pertains to the SE coast here. GFS, GGEM/RGEM, Euro compromise. I think the Euro is probably too flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I don't think the Euro is god at this close range. It's not necessarily better than the US models inside 24 hrs. That's about what the US models are good for ...the final 24 hrs. Hah Theyve been well north of the op with some members amped . The op Euro may be right but there's a good chance it's too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 In terms of minutia ...fwiw, the actual radar in VA/WV is north of what the 12Z NAM simulated radar showed. 12z Euro is actually a little WNW of the earlier 0z run with the low. But as has been the case most of the winter the 12z runs are always less moist than the 0z. Odd. One of the immediate issues is the handling of the initial pulse off the Carolinas. Clearly a circulation exists out there http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=MHX&loop=yes Another interesting point that has come up in some of the earlier scrapers. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ILX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes I'd argue that the GFS while overdone, had a better handle on the precip speed and strength as it's moved SE of Decatur. Euro seemed too slow, and too far south. Again JMHO. I'm not that worried about the OP Euro as it pertains to the SE coast here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I don't think the Euro is god at this close range. It's not necessarily better than the US models inside 24 hrs. That's about what the US models are good for ...the final 24 hrs. Hah I believe that's been proven false. Euro wins close in and out t d7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Meanwhile, maybe an inch or 2 here in Chicago tonight. Winding down folks despite the chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Man STL FTW today. Complete pounding. Check out radar, they are in the most perfect spot ever for S+, just north of the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I believe that's been proven false. Euro wins close in and out t d7. Jerry, one of the worst busts of the season that nobody cared about because it was the Cape happened within 6 hours of a Euro forecast a month ago here. That was the storm where I think it had .01 to .05 at 6 hours lead when over .4 fell. It just would not budge north. As always a compromise is probably in order. But looking around St Louis to Decatur now...the GFS wanted to keep things moving with a sharp precip shield moving into IN. The Euro was much slower instead focusing on the St Louis area and only slowly moving NE compared to the GFS. The GGEM is even faster than the GFS. (if you look at 500mb the Euro has an intense vortmax that it rotates along the southern MO border that ends up skewing the entire structure SE of say the GFS/GGEM)...later when it approaches the coast that feature has helped to change the angle to a more ENE movement and subsequently all of the dynamics are shuffled much further to sea this time. I think that's at least partly wrong, JMHO. I'm pretty confident the Euro is too slow. A compromise of the GGEM/GFS/EURO still keeps it interesting in the coastal areas. I think the Euro is going to be too flat, again. I think the CMC probably has the best idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 So frustrating to see how close this is from crushing us... and we'll end up with flurries instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 So frustrating to see how close this is from crushing us... and we'll end up with flurries instead. Honestly it's still a good 100-150mi too far S for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Honestly it's still a good 100-150mi too far S for us. Yeah, but the storm would come north if it wasn't for that vort over Canada blocking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Driving to half today. Sunny but classic storm sky way off in the distance. Milky sky with cirrus and some patchy lower clouds moving in. Taken from orh an hr ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 If you haven't already, check out the NYC thread... snowlovers dying hard there too. Forky brings up an interesting point that Euro handles confluence/blocking better than NCEP guidance. We'll see how that plays out in this case... will have a significant impact for SEPA / NJ / NYC as well as SNE, as NAM/GFS still pretty gungho about qpf down there. Rollo you remember if the NCEP/GGEM products were better than the Euro bust sub-6-12 hrs on that Cape event you mention a month ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 If you haven't already, check out the NYC thread... snowlovers dying hard there too. Forky brings up an interesting point that Euro handles confluence/blocking better than NCEP guidance. We'll see how that plays out in this case... will have a significant impact for SEPA / NJ / NYC as well as SNE, as NAM/GFS still pretty gungho about qpf down there. Rollo you remember if the NCEP/GGEM products were better than the Euro bust sub-6-12 hrs on that Cape event you mention a month ago? Much better. The Euro was awful. In every marginal event it was 500+ miles south if you recall only slowly to come north until the events were inside of 48 hours. Heck I think with that system at 48-60 hours it was still a miss by about 400-500 miles. That said...doesn't mean much other than the Euro can be wrong. I'd go with the GGEM/Euro compromise until there's a clear reason not to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 So frustrating to see how close this is from crushing us... and we'll end up with flurries instead. Flurries are probably optimistic where you are, IMO. There's going to be little/nothing if the band doesn't make it onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 NAM just ever so slightly further north in eastern SNE. Kind of the same deal where the latter stages of the store spare the Euro want to come north just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 NAM just ever so slightly further north in eastern SNE. Kind of the same deal where the latter stages of the store spare the Euro want to come north just a bit. What a gradient literally a good drive away from .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 And maybe 10 miles south around southern NY.... Minutia I guess. Dying stuff from the old upper system gets some snow to just about BGM tomorrow. NAM just ever so slightly further north in eastern SNE. Kind of the same deal where the latter stages of the store spare the Euro want to come north just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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