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The Lion's end to March banter and discussion, part deux!

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I like the way the monster vortex up north shifts just enough to all south wsw to ene pivoting tomorrow now. Given position of the 7H low on the GFS...maybe you get tickled with the good banding for awhile.

 

Yeah, one of the trends we've seen here is that the track has shifted north further east.  IE, like you said there's that ever so slight shift north again on the GGEM near Cape Cod.

 

Forky makes a great point, this is going to be excruciating on the "have not" side of the equation. 

 

I also have in the back of my mind Will's frequent comments about the banding almost always being further north than modeled.  This is a 980mb low near the BM.  It's almost inconceivable that it doesn't belt someone in SNE.  But then again we had a storm 450 miles away that gave us a blizzard awhile ago, blocking does weird things.

 

There's going to be an epic band on the radar Monday night either just into SNE or just missing/hitting the islands.  Impossible to say where right now. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah, one of the trends we've seen here is that the track has shifted north further east.  IE, like you said there's that ever so slight shift north again on the GGEM near Cape Cod.

 

Forky makes a great point, this is going to be excruciating on the "have not" side of the equation. 

 

I also have in the back of my mind Will's frequent comments about the banding almost always being further north than modeled.  This is a 980mb low near the BM.  It's almost inconceivable that it doesn't belt someone in SNE.  But then again we had a storm 450 miles away that gave us a blizzard awhile ago, blocking does weird things.

 

There's going to be an epic band on the radar Monday night either just into SNE or just missing/hitting the islands.  Impossible to say where right now. 

 

Banding makes it into your area using my little 500mb trick. At least IMHO. GEFS looked rather buillish with that. The confluence to the north will make sure the nrn band is Feb 2010-like.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Banding makes it into your area using my little 500mb trick. At least IMHO. GEFS looked rather buillish with that. The confluence to the north will make sure the nrn band is Feb 2010-like.

 

GEFS definitely north of the 0z again.  GGEM was definitely a smidge north again.  UK I put in the pool with the NAM.

 

The problem here is if someone were to forecast advisory or better criteria snows on the extreme coast I'd say there's an even chance of it busting vs not issuing anything and having to raise headlines later. 

 

Impossible forecast at this range.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

GEFS definitely north of the 0z again. GGEM was definitely a smidge north again. UK I put in the pool with the NAM.

The problem here is if someone were to forecast advisory or better criteria snows on the extreme coast I'd say there's an even chance of it busting vs not issuing anything and having to raise headlines later.

Impossible forecast at this range.

exactly why those calls for a complete whiff yesterday were as absurd as the other extreme. My call is LI to CC get in the deform
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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

The reality is that the forecast for you should be 1-10 inches.  LOL  ...Nobody is gonna know for sure until maybe early tomorrow. I

GEFS definitely north of the 0z again.  GGEM was definitely a smidge north again.  UK I put in the pool with the NAM.

 

The problem here is if someone were to forecast advisory or better criteria snows on the extreme coast I'd say there's an even chance of it busting vs not issuing anything and having to raise headlines later. 

 

Impossible forecast at this range.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I'm at least a little concerned that the 00z EC Ens had precip spreads from 0.00 to 0.8ish for inland CT. Don't see that very often this close in.

Tickle tickle?

 

Was just looking at the OP Euro.  One thing we probably need to consider.  For whatever reason it seems like this last month or so the 12z Euro runs have been lighter than the 0z.  It's been mentioned a few times. 

 

That said there's a couple of things the Euro and other models have that I find interesting.  the Euro hints at some weak OEH during the later stages.  It's borderline but I think the signal is there.  You can see it roughly 51 to 57 or so in the old Euro.  850 temps are marginal because the water is so cool - in fact there's probably not enough to do much on its own but on the northern edge of a precip shield if it does in fact make it, it could get interesting.

 

Second there's some hints there something going on aloft as the s/w comes down from the north...note the little extension the high res NAM and even the Euro have over eastern areas.  That may provide some saving flakes to at least lighten the mood if the system gets booted unceremoniously east.

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

DT has 1-2 up to Boston

 

not a 0% chance but need even more shifts north for that to happen

 

on the other hand, he has 'R/S mix no Accum over 1"' for southern half CT / RI / SEMA...? those areas have a better shot at the higher accums

 

also think he's underforecasting for higher elevation counties just west of Philly

 

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Well, see what the euro does. At least the s coast people should pay attention anyways as there will be such a tight gradient.

 

Also hard to ignore the high res stuff which is mostly a whiff aside of the brief banding that forms over EMA. 

 

Bottom line NCEP's confidence with the ULL up here is below average.  To the south, well there's still a lot of wiggling around going on too. From the get go there are already issues with moisture transport on the NCEP guidance.

 

===========================

WITHIN THE HIGHEST PWAT PLUME...THE 12Z NAM/GFS SEEM TO UNDER DO

THE GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY ALMOST 0.30 INCHES ALONG THE ERN

GULF COAST.

===================================================================

===========================

...LINGERING SHRTWV ENERGY OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING MUCH OF THE

PERIOD...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN/09Z SREF

MEAN

FCST CONFIDENCE: LOW

WHILE THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL VORTEX LIFTS NEWRD AWAY FROM NOVA

SCOTIA AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...RESIDUAL ENERGY ACRS

QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO DROP SWRD WITHIN THE MORE SYNOPTIC-SCALE

CYCLONIC FLOW. IT APPEARS THIS COMPLEX EVOLUTION LEADS TO MODEL

DIFFERENCES MOVING FORWARD. AS A WHOLE...THE 12Z NAM DOES NOT LOOK

TERRIBLY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS PAIR OF RUNS WHILE THE 12Z

GFS KEEPS MOVING FARTHER W WITH THE CORE OF THE LWR HGTS AT THE

END OF THE PERIOD. RIGHT NOW...IT SEEMS THAT THE 12Z NAM/00Z UKMET

ARE MOST EMPHATIC IN DEVELOPING A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER NRN NEW

ENGLAND BY 27/0000Z. OTHER MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE 00Z

ECMWF...COME ON BOARD AFTERWARD THOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF

SPREAD IN HOW THIS UPR TROF EVENTUALLY ORIENTS ITSELF. GIVEN THE

SPREAD AT HAND...WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF ENS MEANS UNLESS OTHER

FUTURE 12Z MODELS RESOLVE THIS ISSUE.

...STRENGTHENING UPR LOW APPROACHING THE LWR OH VALLEY LATE SUN...

...COASTAL CYCLONE DEEPENING ALONG THE COASTAL

CAROLINAS/MID-ATLC...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF

FCST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE OZARKS WILL QUICKLY

BECOME NEG-TILT RESULTING IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE UPR LOW. A

SURFACE LOW IS FCST TO FOLLOW SUIT SHIFTING TOWARD THE LWR OH

VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY

TO A SECONDARY AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL

CAROLINAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS DEVELOPMENT AND ITS

ASSOCIATED STRENGTH/PLACEMENT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SENSIBLE

WEATHER IMPACTS ACRS THE MID-ATLC REGION. BY 12 TO 24 HRS INTO THE

FCST...THE 12Z/06Z NAM HAVE SLOWED DOWN WITH THE UPR LOW COMPARED

TO THE 00Z RUN. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z GFS HAS SHIFTED A BIT N WITH

THE EXTENT OF ITS CLOSED LOW ACRS SRN IL. LATER ON...THE 00Z NAM

REMAINS DEEPER ALOFT AS THE UPR CYCLONE EXITS THE MID-ATLC BY

26/0000Z COMPARED TO THE MORE RECENT VERSIONS OF THE NAM. AT THIS

SAME TIME...THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED IN THE SLOWER DIRECTION WITH

THIS SHIFT CONTINUING OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC...THE 12Z/06Z NAM/GFS

RUNS ARE DEFINITELY NOT AS CLOSE TO THE DELMARVA AS HINTED AT BY

THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. RELATIVE TO OTHER MODELS...THE 12Z NAM IS

DISPLACED A BIT TO THE W WHILE BEING DEEPER BY 25/0000Z. ONCE THE

SYSTEM IS OVER THE MID-ATLC MIDDAY MON...THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z

CMC/09Z SREF MEAN END UP A BIT SLOWER/DEEPER. ONCE THE UPR TROF

EXITS THE COASTLINE...THE 00Z UKMET BECOMES MUCH QUICKER IN THIS

SCENARIO. LOOKING TO THE SFC...THE SPREAD HAD CONSIDERABLY

DIMINISHED MON MORNING AS THE LOW SITS JUST OFFSHORE OF SERN VA.

ENS LOW PLOTS INDICATE A WELL RESOLVED FCST ALTHOUGH SOME 00Z

ECMWF ENS MEMBERS HINT AT SOMETHING SLGTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE...EVEN

MORE SO THAN THE 12Z ENS PLOT MODEL CYCLE. AS ALLUDED TO

EARLIER...THE 00Z UKMET EVENTUALLY BECOMES TOO QUICK AND HAS THE

FURTHEST E LOW CENTER BY 25/1800Z. LOOKING AT TRENDS IN THE 12Z

GUIDANCE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST A SLOWING TREND MAY BE

UNDERWAY. WILL INCORPORATE ONE OF THE SLOWER SOLNS IN THE BLEND

ALONG WITH A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLN AS WELL TO COVER BOTH SIDES OF

THE EQTN. MOREOVER...WPC WILL RECOMMEND A 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND

WITH THIS IDEA POSSIBLY CHANGING BASED ON FUTURE 12Z MODEL

GUIDANCE TRENDS.

 

 

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Bottom line with such a tight gradient we're talking about the old ULL moving 10-30 miles one way at 1.5 days and the new ULL moving 10-30 miles in another way.  The net surface change of 20-50 miles or so is the difference between wind blown clouds off the water, and getting a good shot from this system on the south coast.

 

There's no model including the Euro that has that type of accuracy in these situations.  If it came in with .5 over my head or .0 with the .5 close....confidence would be the same.  Low.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

On Facebook here is admitting that some models are hitting the Philly area and NJ a lot more than on his map.

not a 0% chance but need even more shifts north for that to happen

 

on the other hand, he has 'R/S mix no Accum over 1"' for southern half CT / RI / SEMA...? those areas have a better shot at the higher accums

 

also think he's underforecasting for higher elevation counties just west of Philly

 

attachicon.gifDT_map.jpg

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

sure tomm after dark you could tickle an inch or two if things go right

 

About 75 or 80% of the GEFS members are NW of the OP.   I think the Euro ENS weren't all that different based on some of what NCEP said.  That's the struggle we are seeing as models jump sometimes further seaward only to come back.  If the 25% is right this is mainly a miss. 

 

Likely there's a struggle over convective processes/feedback.  The majority could be the models having the issue, who knows. 

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