yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 new srefs have us in 1"+ qpf for the first time proving they are getting worse, though I'll hope lucky EDIT: add a 988mb mean off OC to the run 18z NAM looks like it will be NAMing us again.... just once I wish it were right LOL... colder at the 85o level and more QPF.... bomb coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The nam is gonna be epic methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Remind me how SREFS did during March 6 superstorm? They are dead to me now... I know, I know but living in the MA all my life, I have come to enjoy what the models predict almost as much as what actually falls to save my sanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Just a helpful hint for new folks! Thanks for the advice. I just get really excited, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Slightly more digging going on with the h5 this run comparing 18z 21 to 12z 27... h5 also a lil further south by 50 miles or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Example: THIS looks FAR more accurate - (human generated) It was generated at about 3am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 This run is going to be different in that it looks like the coastal is taking over already at 27... QPF field is juicy and massive though. Its also colder at the 850 level on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 This run is going to be different in that it looks like the coastal is taking over already at 27... QPF field is juicy and massive though. Its also colder at the 850 level on this run Lets not get to exited now, its the nam after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 it's even further south with the 5h vort than 12z yummy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 That H5 map on the NAM is wondermus. Why does the NAM have to be the weenie model though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 it's even further south with the 5h vort than 12z yummy About 100 miles SE of its 12z h5 position at 42(SE IN) is the h5 at 36 and stronger (in S KY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 I've never seen a model take longer to give us bad output than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It was generated at about 3am. I know that. That wasn't my point. My point was that in the realm of what will probably happen with this storm, the human generated input even from 3am looks just fine for those probabilities. Anybody super close to DC who is expecting or even considering 4+ inches is off their rocker IMO. Elevation much better shot...and that map shows that. It was an example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I've never seen a model take longer to give us bad output than the NAM it's gunna go crazy after 39 hrs trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I've never seen a model take longer to give us bad output than the NAM You beat me to it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 it's gunna go crazy after 39 hrs trust me told ya http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_042_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 it's gunna go crazy after 39 hrs trust me Yeah, I just took a peak at the sim radar at 42 and looks like it starts getting loopy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Why the sarcasm? It actually snows in Richmond. You'll probably get another 4-5 inches from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Told everyone at work 1-2".. I'd be about 12" off if this actually happened, but more realistically that's around 6-8" IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Told everyone at work 1-2".. I'd be about 12" off if this actually happened, but more realistically that's around 6" IMBY. It would be the storm of the century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Told everyone at work 1-2".. I'd be about 12" off if this actually happened, but more realistically that's around 6-8" IMBY. no, tell them the "-" was a typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Still way overdoing precip but coming in line with the other models in terms of upper levels placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Didn't NAM us like I thought..but still... I trust any models that gives the Eastern shore a foot in late March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Wow. 2" liquid equivalent for the Delmarva coast on the 18z NAM. Just sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Coastal ended up a bit too far east for us... but I guess that would be better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Wow. 2" liquid equivalent for the Delmarva coast on the 18z NAM. Just sick. nam isn't truly sick till it pushes 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 If you forget the date... and the fact that its the NAM... it is borderline pornographic for hours 45 and 48 from DCA to PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 well at least it shows a way to get snow accum during the day (right on the s md/de border) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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