swimmatte Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 IAD: MON 00Z 25-MAR 3.5 -4.1 1007 67 98 0.02 546 540 MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.0 -4.5 1005 94 89 0.10 542 539 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.5 -5.7 1002 96 100 0.15 533 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.0 -5.5 1001 84 99 0.19 529 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.1 -6.0 1006 97 96 0.10 532 527 DCA: MON 00Z 25-MAR 3.8 -3.7 1007 60 97 0.01 546 540 MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.1 -3.9 1005 92 90 0.09 543 539 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.7 -5.2 1002 95 100 0.12 534 532 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.2 -5.3 1000 88 99 0.20 529 529 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.3 -6.1 1006 96 94 0.16 532 527 BWI: MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.5 -4.2 1005 87 97 0.08 542 539 MON 12Z 25-MAR 1.0 -5.4 1002 93 100 0.10 535 533 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.5 -5.1 1000 85 99 0.26 529 529 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.7 -6.2 1006 90 98 0.19 531 527 TUE 06Z 26-MAR -0.1 -5.7 1008 92 83 0.01 536 530 CHO: SUN 18Z 24-MAR 4.1 -3.4 1010 55 69 0.01 551 543 MON 00Z 25-MAR 0.9 -3.1 1007 95 99 0.14 546 540 MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.1 -4.9 1004 97 89 0.08 542 539 MON 12Z 25-MAR -0.3 -5.7 1002 95 96 0.16 532 530 MON 18Z 25-MAR 4.0 -5.5 1001 67 99 0.06 529 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 2.1 -4.5 1006 89 91 0.06 534 529 TUE 06Z 26-MAR 0.6 -5.2 1009 91 71 0.02 538 531 HGR: MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.8 -5.2 1005 86 98 0.06 541 537 MON 12Z 25-MAR -0.1 -6.9 1003 94 100 0.20 533 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.5 -6.3 1002 79 100 0.19 530 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 0.3 -6.0 1006 93 96 0.07 533 528 TUE 06Z 26-MAR -2.5 -5.7 1008 93 87 0.01 536 529 FDK: MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.7 -4.8 1005 90 97 0.08 542 538 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.0 -6.5 1003 93 100 0.16 534 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.7 -5.9 1001 81 100 0.20 529 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 0.7 -6.1 1006 94 94 0.09 532 527 TUE 06Z 26-MAR -2.7 -5.8 1008 95 83 0.01 536 530 JYO: MON 00Z 25-MAR 3.3 -4.2 1007 69 96 0.02 545 540 MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.8 -4.7 1005 93 91 0.10 542 538 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.3 -6.0 1002 96 100 0.18 533 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.9 -5.7 1001 83 99 0.18 529 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 0.9 -6.0 1006 96 96 0.09 532 527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'm not a big fan of the RAP really, it is usually too wet, and lately it has been especially. Usually does okay with the shutoff of precip however. Yeah I was mocking its march 6 performance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 IAD: MON 00Z 25-MAR 3.5 -4.1 1007 67 98 0.02 546 540 MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.0 -4.5 1005 94 89 0.10 542 539 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.5 -5.7 1002 96 100 0.15 533 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.0 -5.5 1001 84 99 0.19 529 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.1 -6.0 1006 97 96 0.10 532 527 DCA: MON 00Z 25-MAR 3.8 -3.7 1007 60 97 0.01 546 540 MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.1 -3.9 1005 92 90 0.09 543 539 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.7 -5.2 1002 95 100 0.12 534 532 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.2 -5.3 1000 88 99 0.20 529 529 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.3 -6.1 1006 96 94 0.16 532 527 BWI: MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.5 -4.2 1005 87 97 0.08 542 539 MON 12Z 25-MAR 1.0 -5.4 1002 93 100 0.10 535 533 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.5 -5.1 1000 85 99 0.26 529 529 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.7 -6.2 1006 90 98 0.19 531 527 TUE 06Z 26-MAR -0.1 -5.7 1008 92 83 0.01 536 530 CHO: SUN 18Z 24-MAR 4.1 -3.4 1010 55 69 0.01 551 543 MON 00Z 25-MAR 0.9 -3.1 1007 95 99 0.14 546 540 MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.1 -4.9 1004 97 89 0.08 542 539 MON 12Z 25-MAR -0.3 -5.7 1002 95 96 0.16 532 530 MON 18Z 25-MAR 4.0 -5.5 1001 67 99 0.06 529 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 2.1 -4.5 1006 89 91 0.06 534 529 TUE 06Z 26-MAR 0.6 -5.2 1009 91 71 0.02 538 531 HGR: MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.8 -5.2 1005 86 98 0.06 541 537 MON 12Z 25-MAR -0.1 -6.9 1003 94 100 0.20 533 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.5 -6.3 1002 79 100 0.19 530 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 0.3 -6.0 1006 93 96 0.07 533 528 TUE 06Z 26-MAR -2.5 -5.7 1008 93 87 0.01 536 529 FDK: MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.7 -4.8 1005 90 97 0.08 542 538 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.0 -6.5 1003 93 100 0.16 534 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.7 -5.9 1001 81 100 0.20 529 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 0.7 -6.1 1006 94 94 0.09 532 527 TUE 06Z 26-MAR -2.7 -5.8 1008 95 83 0.01 536 530 JYO: MON 00Z 25-MAR 3.3 -4.2 1007 69 96 0.02 545 540 MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.8 -4.7 1005 93 91 0.10 542 538 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.3 -6.0 1002 96 100 0.18 533 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.9 -5.7 1001 83 99 0.18 529 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 0.9 -6.0 1006 96 96 0.09 532 527 OKV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yeah I was mocking its march 6 performance It also melted down a what initially looked like a halfway decent event in early Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 HGR: MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.8 -5.2 1005 86 98 0.06 541 537 MON 12Z 25-MAR -0.1 -6.9 1003 94 100 0.20 533 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.5 -6.3 1002 79 100 0.19 530 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 0.3 -6.0 1006 93 96 0.07 533 528 TUE 06Z 26-MAR -2.5 -5.7 1008 93 87 0.01 536 529 Thanks for including the I-81 site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 OKV? MON 00Z 25-MAR 2.0 -4.2 1007 81 96 0.04 545 539 MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.2 -5.3 1005 95 96 0.10 541 538 MON 12Z 25-MAR -0.3 -6.7 1002 95 98 0.24 532 530 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.9 -6.3 1001 77 100 0.15 529 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 0.4 -5.6 1006 95 98 0.07 533 528 TUE 06Z 26-MAR -3.9 -5.6 1009 95 86 0.01 537 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 gfs and euro are close with some accumulations especially north and west of the cities into southern pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 MON 00Z 25-MAR 2.0 -4.2 1007 81 96 0.04 545 539 MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.2 -5.3 1005 95 96 0.10 541 538 MON 12Z 25-MAR -0.3 -6.7 1002 95 98 0.24 532 530 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.9 -6.3 1001 77 100 0.15 529 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 0.4 -5.6 1006 95 98 0.07 533 528 TUE 06Z 26-MAR -3.9 -5.6 1009 95 86 0.01 537 530 Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NWS storm map is sad. So is The Weather Channel's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Forecast using 90% Euro blend and you will be money around here during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It's funny though that the new snow probability map from the HPC has a 70% chance for 2 inches or more and a 50-60% chance for at least 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Probably worth mentioning the inversion layer (if it hasnt been mentioned alread)...NAM is almost sleet Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I bet it snows all day which is quite remarkable this late...cant wait...of course accumulations will be limited if not non existent...lol...does that really need to be hammered home? It would be fun to cover the grass one last time....good luck all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It's funny though that the new snow probability map from the HPC has a 70% chance for 2 inches or more and a 50-60% chance for at least 4 inches. Can we stop discussing these? The HPC does not make those, it's a blend of SREF members and a few other model runs. If the SREF gives us snow, those maps give us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NWS storm map is sad. So is The Weather Channel's. NWS map is through 6AM Monday. Even so, doubtful that any daytime precip would amount to accumulating snow in most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It's funny though that the new snow probability map from the HPC has a 70% chance for 2 inches or more and a 50-60% chance for at least 4 inches. Please use the HUMAN generated maps...stop using the computer generated ones that are heavily biased. Please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Please use the HUMAN generated maps...stop using the computer generated ones that are heavily biased. Please! Care to direct me(us) to the "correct" maps then? Some of us are less familiar with the multitude of different products and where they can be found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 IAD: MON 00Z 25-MAR 3.5 -4.1 1007 67 98 0.02 546 540 MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.0 -4.5 1005 94 89 0.10 542 539 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.5 -5.7 1002 96 100 0.15 533 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.0 -5.5 1001 84 99 0.19 529 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.1 -6.0 1006 97 96 0.10 532 527 DCA: MON 00Z 25-MAR 3.8 -3.7 1007 60 97 0.01 546 540 MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.1 -3.9 1005 92 90 0.09 543 539 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.7 -5.2 1002 95 100 0.12 534 532 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.2 -5.3 1000 88 99 0.20 529 529 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.3 -6.1 1006 96 94 0.16 532 527 BWI: MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.5 -4.2 1005 87 97 0.08 542 539 MON 12Z 25-MAR 1.0 -5.4 1002 93 100 0.10 535 533 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.5 -5.1 1000 85 99 0.26 529 529 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.7 -6.2 1006 90 98 0.19 531 527 TUE 06Z 26-MAR -0.1 -5.7 1008 92 83 0.01 536 530 CHO: SUN 18Z 24-MAR 4.1 -3.4 1010 55 69 0.01 551 543 MON 00Z 25-MAR 0.9 -3.1 1007 95 99 0.14 546 540 MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.1 -4.9 1004 97 89 0.08 542 539 MON 12Z 25-MAR -0.3 -5.7 1002 95 96 0.16 532 530 MON 18Z 25-MAR 4.0 -5.5 1001 67 99 0.06 529 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 2.1 -4.5 1006 89 91 0.06 534 529 TUE 06Z 26-MAR 0.6 -5.2 1009 91 71 0.02 538 531 HGR: MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.8 -5.2 1005 86 98 0.06 541 537 MON 12Z 25-MAR -0.1 -6.9 1003 94 100 0.20 533 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.5 -6.3 1002 79 100 0.19 530 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 0.3 -6.0 1006 93 96 0.07 533 528 TUE 06Z 26-MAR -2.5 -5.7 1008 93 87 0.01 536 529 FDK: MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.7 -4.8 1005 90 97 0.08 542 538 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.0 -6.5 1003 93 100 0.16 534 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.7 -5.9 1001 81 100 0.20 529 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 0.7 -6.1 1006 94 94 0.09 532 527 TUE 06Z 26-MAR -2.7 -5.8 1008 95 83 0.01 536 530 JYO: MON 00Z 25-MAR 3.3 -4.2 1007 69 96 0.02 545 540 MON 06Z 25-MAR 0.8 -4.7 1005 93 91 0.10 542 538 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.3 -6.0 1002 96 100 0.18 533 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 1.9 -5.7 1001 83 99 0.18 529 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 0.9 -6.0 1006 96 96 0.09 532 527 when I see those 850 temps and then the surface temps, I want to sit atop a clock tower with a scoped, high powered rifle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Care to direct me(us) to the "correct" maps then? Some of us are less familiar with the multitude of different products and where they can be found. Here's a link to the description of those HPC probability maps: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/about_pwpf_products.shtml The human generated ones can be found here, underneath the crappy ones (even though the human generated ones don't look as pretty): http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 when I see those 850 temps and then the surface temps, I want to sit atop a clock tower with a scoped, high powered rifle Painful isn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Care to direct me(us) to the "correct" maps then? Some of us are less familiar with the multitude of different products and where they can be found. They are on the exact same page just like a few more flicks of the scroll wheel down I apologize if I came across as terse but we literally tell people this EVERY time there's a snow threat (and I think we even have discussed it WRT this storm as well at least 2-6 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Example: THIS looks FAR more accurate - (human generated) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Gwg just promoted Matt's page. He is going to get a ton of likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Here's a link to the description of those HPC probability maps: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/about_pwpf_products.shtml The human generated ones can be found here, underneath the crappy ones (even though the human generated ones don't look as pretty): http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml With good reason too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 They are on the exact same page just like a few more flicks of the scroll wheel down I apologize if I came across as terse but we literally tell people this EVERY time there's a snow threat (and I think we even have discussed it WRT this storm as well at least 2-6 times. I'm sorry, I'm new.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'm sorry, I'm new.... The computer generated ones are generally pretty good in met winter. Now? Nahsomuch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'm sorry, I'm new.... No problem - but as I said - even with this storm we've talked about it a few times. Those maps are pretty much alwaysss going to be ridiculously high. I just don't see you over in Potomac or me recording anything more than a slushy inch or two on grass and non pavement surfaces at all. Given that you are new, one of the best options on this forum (something I had to learn the hard way lol) is that when first starting out it is often wise to take in the discussion without chiming in too much. Even I tend to not post all that much pre-storm...I just don't have much to add. I've learned a ton just from reading and asking questions rather than posting everytime I see a snow weenie map Just a helpful hint for new folks! 48 posts in around 17 days is a pretty high number - Though I assume a lot came from obs during the March 6 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 new srefs have us in 1"+ qpf for the first time proving they are getting worse, though I'll hope lucky EDIT: add a 988mb mean off OC to the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'm sorry, I'm new.... It's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 new srefs have us in 1"+ qpf for the first time proving they are getting worse, though I'll hope lucky Remind me how SREFS did during March 6 superstorm? They are dead to me now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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