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March 25th Storm: Debacle or Climo Defier? Discussion and Obs


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IAD:

 

 

MON 00Z 25-MAR   3.5    -4.1    1007      67      98    0.02     546     540    MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.0    -4.5    1005      94      89    0.10     542     539    MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.5    -5.7    1002      96     100    0.15     533     531    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.0    -5.5    1001      84      99    0.19     529     528    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.1    -6.0    1006      97      96    0.10     532     527    

 

DCA:

 

 

MON 00Z 25-MAR   3.8    -3.7    1007      60      97    0.01     546     540    MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.1    -3.9    1005      92      90    0.09     543     539    MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.7    -5.2    1002      95     100    0.12     534     532    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.2    -5.3    1000      88      99    0.20     529     529    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.3    -6.1    1006      96      94    0.16     532     527    

 

BWI:

 

 

MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.5    -4.2    1005      87      97    0.08     542     539    MON 12Z 25-MAR   1.0    -5.4    1002      93     100    0.10     535     533    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.5    -5.1    1000      85      99    0.26     529     529    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.7    -6.2    1006      90      98    0.19     531     527    TUE 06Z 26-MAR  -0.1    -5.7    1008      92      83    0.01     536     530    

 

CHO:

 

 

SUN 18Z 24-MAR   4.1    -3.4    1010      55      69    0.01     551     543    MON 00Z 25-MAR   0.9    -3.1    1007      95      99    0.14     546     540    MON 06Z 25-MAR   0.1    -4.9    1004      97      89    0.08     542     539    MON 12Z 25-MAR  -0.3    -5.7    1002      95      96    0.16     532     530    MON 18Z 25-MAR   4.0    -5.5    1001      67      99    0.06     529     528    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   2.1    -4.5    1006      89      91    0.06     534     529    TUE 06Z 26-MAR   0.6    -5.2    1009      91      71    0.02     538     531    

 

HGR:

 

 

MON 06Z 25-MAR   0.8    -5.2    1005      86      98    0.06     541     537    MON 12Z 25-MAR  -0.1    -6.9    1003      94     100    0.20     533     531    MON 18Z 25-MAR   1.5    -6.3    1002      79     100    0.19     530     528    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.3    -6.0    1006      93      96    0.07     533     528    TUE 06Z 26-MAR  -2.5    -5.7    1008      93      87    0.01     536     529    

 

FDK:

 

 

MON 06Z 25-MAR   0.7    -4.8    1005      90      97    0.08     542     538    MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.0    -6.5    1003      93     100    0.16     534     531    MON 18Z 25-MAR   1.7    -5.9    1001      81     100    0.20     529     528    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.7    -6.1    1006      94      94    0.09     532     527    TUE 06Z 26-MAR  -2.7    -5.8    1008      95      83    0.01     536     530    

 

JYO:

 

 

MON 00Z 25-MAR   3.3    -4.2    1007      69      96    0.02     545     540    MON 06Z 25-MAR   0.8    -4.7    1005      93      91    0.10     542     538    MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.3    -6.0    1002      96     100    0.18     533     531    MON 18Z 25-MAR   1.9    -5.7    1001      83      99    0.18     529     528    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.9    -6.0    1006      96      96    0.09     532     527    
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I'm not a big fan of the RAP really, it is usually too wet, and lately it has been especially. Usually does okay with the shutoff of precip however.

Yeah I was mocking its march 6 performance

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IAD:

MON 00Z 25-MAR   3.5    -4.1    1007      67      98    0.02     546     540    
MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.0    -4.5    1005      94      89    0.10     542     539    
MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.5    -5.7    1002      96     100    0.15     533     531    
MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.0    -5.5    1001      84      99    0.19     529     528    
TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.1    -6.0    1006      97      96    0.10     532     527

DCA:

MON 00Z 25-MAR   3.8    -3.7    1007      60      97    0.01     546     540    
MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.1    -3.9    1005      92      90    0.09     543     539    
MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.7    -5.2    1002      95     100    0.12     534     532    
MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.2    -5.3    1000      88      99    0.20     529     529    
TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.3    -6.1    1006      96      94    0.16     532     527

BWI:

MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.5    -4.2    1005      87      97    0.08     542     539    
MON 12Z 25-MAR   1.0    -5.4    1002      93     100    0.10     535     533    
MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.5    -5.1    1000      85      99    0.26     529     529    
TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.7    -6.2    1006      90      98    0.19     531     527    
TUE 06Z 26-MAR  -0.1    -5.7    1008      92      83    0.01     536     530

CHO:

SUN 18Z 24-MAR   4.1    -3.4    1010      55      69    0.01     551     543    
MON 00Z 25-MAR   0.9    -3.1    1007      95      99    0.14     546     540    
MON 06Z 25-MAR   0.1    -4.9    1004      97      89    0.08     542     539    
MON 12Z 25-MAR  -0.3    -5.7    1002      95      96    0.16     532     530    
MON 18Z 25-MAR   4.0    -5.5    1001      67      99    0.06     529     528    
TUE 00Z 26-MAR   2.1    -4.5    1006      89      91    0.06     534     529    
TUE 06Z 26-MAR   0.6    -5.2    1009      91      71    0.02     538     531

HGR:

MON 06Z 25-MAR   0.8    -5.2    1005      86      98    0.06     541     537    
MON 12Z 25-MAR  -0.1    -6.9    1003      94     100    0.20     533     531    
MON 18Z 25-MAR   1.5    -6.3    1002      79     100    0.19     530     528    
TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.3    -6.0    1006      93      96    0.07     533     528    
TUE 06Z 26-MAR  -2.5    -5.7    1008      93      87    0.01     536     529

FDK:

MON 06Z 25-MAR   0.7    -4.8    1005      90      97    0.08     542     538    
MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.0    -6.5    1003      93     100    0.16     534     531    
MON 18Z 25-MAR   1.7    -5.9    1001      81     100    0.20     529     528    
TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.7    -6.1    1006      94      94    0.09     532     527    
TUE 06Z 26-MAR  -2.7    -5.8    1008      95      83    0.01     536     530

JYO:

MON 00Z 25-MAR   3.3    -4.2    1007      69      96    0.02     545     540    
MON 06Z 25-MAR   0.8    -4.7    1005      93      91    0.10     542     538    
MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.3    -6.0    1002      96     100    0.18     533     531    
MON 18Z 25-MAR   1.9    -5.7    1001      83      99    0.18     529     528    
TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.9    -6.0    1006      96      96    0.09     532     527

OKV?

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HGR:

 

 

MON 06Z 25-MAR   0.8    -5.2    1005      86      98    0.06     541     537    MON 12Z 25-MAR  -0.1    -6.9    1003      94     100    0.20     533     531    MON 18Z 25-MAR   1.5    -6.3    1002      79     100    0.19     530     528    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.3    -6.0    1006      93      96    0.07     533     528    TUE 06Z 26-MAR  -2.5    -5.7    1008      93      87    0.01     536     529    

 

Thanks for including the I-81 site. :hug:

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MON 00Z 25-MAR   2.0    -4.2    1007      81      96    0.04     545     539    
MON 06Z 25-MAR   0.2    -5.3    1005      95      96    0.10     541     538    
MON 12Z 25-MAR  -0.3    -6.7    1002      95      98    0.24     532     530    
MON 18Z 25-MAR   1.9    -6.3    1001      77     100    0.15     529     528    
TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.4    -5.6    1006      95      98    0.07     533     528    
TUE 06Z 26-MAR  -3.9    -5.6    1009      95      86    0.01     537     530

Thanks.

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It's funny though that the new snow probability map from the HPC has a 70% chance for 2 inches or more and a 50-60% chance for at least 4 inches.

 

Can we stop discussing these?  The HPC does not make those, it's a blend of SREF members and a few other model runs.  If the SREF gives us snow, those maps give us snow.  

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It's funny though that the new snow probability map from the HPC has a 70% chance for 2 inches or more and a 50-60% chance for at least 4 inches.

 

Please use the HUMAN generated maps...stop using the computer generated ones that are heavily biased. Please!

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IAD:

 

 

MON 00Z 25-MAR   3.5    -4.1    1007      67      98    0.02     546     540    MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.0    -4.5    1005      94      89    0.10     542     539    MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.5    -5.7    1002      96     100    0.15     533     531    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.0    -5.5    1001      84      99    0.19     529     528    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.1    -6.0    1006      97      96    0.10     532     527    

 

DCA:

 

 

MON 00Z 25-MAR   3.8    -3.7    1007      60      97    0.01     546     540    MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.1    -3.9    1005      92      90    0.09     543     539    MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.7    -5.2    1002      95     100    0.12     534     532    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.2    -5.3    1000      88      99    0.20     529     529    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.3    -6.1    1006      96      94    0.16     532     527    

 

BWI:

 

 

MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.5    -4.2    1005      87      97    0.08     542     539    MON 12Z 25-MAR   1.0    -5.4    1002      93     100    0.10     535     533    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.5    -5.1    1000      85      99    0.26     529     529    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.7    -6.2    1006      90      98    0.19     531     527    TUE 06Z 26-MAR  -0.1    -5.7    1008      92      83    0.01     536     530    

 

CHO:

 

 

SUN 18Z 24-MAR   4.1    -3.4    1010      55      69    0.01     551     543    MON 00Z 25-MAR   0.9    -3.1    1007      95      99    0.14     546     540    MON 06Z 25-MAR   0.1    -4.9    1004      97      89    0.08     542     539    MON 12Z 25-MAR  -0.3    -5.7    1002      95      96    0.16     532     530    MON 18Z 25-MAR   4.0    -5.5    1001      67      99    0.06     529     528    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   2.1    -4.5    1006      89      91    0.06     534     529    TUE 06Z 26-MAR   0.6    -5.2    1009      91      71    0.02     538     531    

 

HGR:

 

 

MON 06Z 25-MAR   0.8    -5.2    1005      86      98    0.06     541     537    MON 12Z 25-MAR  -0.1    -6.9    1003      94     100    0.20     533     531    MON 18Z 25-MAR   1.5    -6.3    1002      79     100    0.19     530     528    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.3    -6.0    1006      93      96    0.07     533     528    TUE 06Z 26-MAR  -2.5    -5.7    1008      93      87    0.01     536     529    

 

FDK:

 

 

MON 06Z 25-MAR   0.7    -4.8    1005      90      97    0.08     542     538    MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.0    -6.5    1003      93     100    0.16     534     531    MON 18Z 25-MAR   1.7    -5.9    1001      81     100    0.20     529     528    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.7    -6.1    1006      94      94    0.09     532     527    TUE 06Z 26-MAR  -2.7    -5.8    1008      95      83    0.01     536     530    

 

JYO:

 

 

MON 00Z 25-MAR   3.3    -4.2    1007      69      96    0.02     545     540    MON 06Z 25-MAR   0.8    -4.7    1005      93      91    0.10     542     538    MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.3    -6.0    1002      96     100    0.18     533     531    MON 18Z 25-MAR   1.9    -5.7    1001      83      99    0.18     529     528    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.9    -6.0    1006      96      96    0.09     532     527    

 

when I see those 850 temps and then the surface temps, I want to sit atop a clock tower with a scoped, high powered rifle

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Care to direct me(us) to the "correct" maps then? Some of us are less familiar with the multitude of different products and where they can be found.

 

Here's a link to the description of those HPC probability maps:

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/about_pwpf_products.shtml

 

The human generated ones can be found here, underneath the crappy ones (even though the human generated ones don't look as pretty):

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

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Care to direct me(us) to the "correct" maps then? Some of us are less familiar with the multitude of different products and where they can be found.

 

They are on the exact same page just like a few more flicks of the scroll wheel down :) 

I apologize if I came across as terse but we literally tell people this EVERY time there's a snow threat (and I think we even have discussed it WRT this storm as well at least 2-6 times. 

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They are on the exact same page just like a few more flicks of the scroll wheel down :) 

I apologize if I came across as terse but we literally tell people this EVERY time there's a snow threat (and I think we even have discussed it WRT this storm as well at least 2-6 times. 

 

I'm sorry, I'm new.... 

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I'm sorry, I'm new.... 

 

No problem - but as I said - even with this storm we've talked about it a few times. Those maps are pretty much alwaysss going to be ridiculously high. I just don't see you over in Potomac or me recording anything more than a slushy inch or two on grass and non pavement surfaces at all. 

Given that you are new, one of the best options on this forum (something I had to learn the hard way lol) is that when first starting out it is often wise to take in the discussion without chiming in too much. Even I tend to not post all that much pre-storm...I just don't have much to add. I've learned a ton just from reading and asking questions rather than posting everytime I see a snow weenie map :)

Just a helpful hint for new folks!

48 posts in around 17 days is a pretty high number ;) - Though I assume a lot came from obs during the March 6 event. 

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