mitchnick Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 looks like everyone ends up somewhere near .5" total.. precip continues till probably late afternoon as low pulls off to the east meh gimme 70 degrees and sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Seems like the coastal getting precip into NYC (NAM/GGEM to an extent) is not happening on the Euro. Matches up with what my thoughts were for them, blocking keeps it down more south not to mention the h5 is strung out. However, I like the h5 presentation a bit more than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Cut the Euro precip by 25% and there is your solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 euro snow map actually looks better than 0z, tho not sure why. brings the 4-8 to about 95 and across most of northern md. seems highly optimistic.. like all of it being accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Seems reasonable. For this time of the year a 3-6 type event is very significant for anyone in the entire region. Still don't understand the tone of some here dismissing any accumulating snow this late in the season especially if they are a true snow lover. I guess I'm impressed more easily than others. You have more snow than others and are at 1,000 feet. If I could get to Oakland for this one I'd be really impressed too and expecting a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Seems reasonable. For this time of the year a 3-6 type event is very significant for anyone in the entire region. Still don't understand the tone of some here dismissing any accumulating snow this late in the season especially if they are a true snow lover. I guess I'm impressed more easily than others. Those who have been in the business for quite some time realize the nooks and crannies that make even the most impressive modeled snow event lackluster in some instances. Some people like to forget it is March 26, and there are many things that result from the date alone such as sun angle, warmer average climo, perfect timing needed, an anamolously cold airmass typically required, etc. For that reason, their doubts are more than warranted, and in retrospect the modeled snow totals as I said yesterday would truly be historic. Of course, it will not play out that way at all in my opinion, as I stated in my previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Temps? hard to say on maps.. all the panels have us in the 30s zone thru the day. but the freezing line stays well west at lowest.. it's warmer than 0z with that part on maps which makes me wonder why it looks snowier on tha snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 You have more snow than others and are at 1,000 feet. If I could get to Oakland for this one I'd be really impressed too and expecting a foot. Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 euro snow map actually looks better than 0z, tho not sure why. brings the 4-8 to about 95 and across most of northern md. seems highly optimistic.. like all of it being accumulating snow. I like the look of the heights and a somewhat better h5 track. I wouldn't take the Euro 100% in this, though it's certainly the model I'd put the heaviest weight on. Probably 60/20/20 ECM (and its ensembles)/GFS/UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro still way drier and weaker which is why it's warmer Euro wins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 ok, this map on Plymouth is crewed up for the 48 hr 5H map, but that v ort is in a good position on the Euro http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest That is why in some respects I like this run of the ECM, the h5 track is optimizing for the area. Also why I'm taking a compromise of some of the other models with regards to QPF and temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 This has been mentioned by others but(particularly) this winter, there is too much confidence by many that the models can handle the nuances of a late season storm. I'd say climo is more important than the models. Especially given their poor performance, the fact that we are dealing with a transfer, the model spread, time of year etc. I don't think anyone has the skill to nail down the details of such sharp gradient storm. And we really don't have a frame of reference. 3/6 is our best example and climo is way better then for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 That is why in some respects I like this run of the ECM, the h5 track is optimizing for the area. Also why I'm taking a compromise of some of the other models with regards to QPF and temperatures. You are being way too deterministic with this event. Seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I like the look of the heights and a somewhat better h5 track. I wouldn't take the Euro 100% in this, though it's certainly the model I'd put the heaviest weight on. Probably 60/20/20 ECM (and its ensembles)/GFS/UK yeah maybe slightly tho the end result is it still passing right overhead the dc/balt area. the gfs and others have that as well with the closed contour even though it looks ok since the main energy passes in a good spot. usually getting a closed 500 low right overhead is not optimal from what i've seen. i have no interest in the backlash really. it's not going to do anything unless we get throttled. i think only the nam does that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The Euro is warm at the sfc in the data, not a good thing to see, though as Ji stated above, drier=warmer. Euro wins? Not so sure yet, Zwyts post above just popped on the nuances of these storms, and its fair to say no one model may 100% nail the final outcome here. Lots of variables on the table, and with tonights 0z the last full suite of guidance coming before weather services have to put out a true forecast makes it a bit of a challenge to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 You are being way too deterministic with this event. Seriously See my post below, clarified it. I really like your last post, spells things out great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 i hope when the ggem busts horrible on the snow idea people will stop acting like it's the new euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 How much precip before dawn and what are temps at that time? That's really all that matters. After that it's just going to be -RASN/-SNRA for 8 more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 How much precip before dawn and what are temps at that time? That's really all that matters. After that it's just going to be -RASN/-SNRA for 8 more hours. posted already but it's like .25" from the potomac and southwest, lighter northeast thru 12z. 32 line makes about the blue ridge on panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 How much precip before dawn and what are temps at that time? That's really all that matters. After that it's just going to be -RASN/-SNRA for 8 more hours. .21 for DCA up to 12z, sfc temps 1.1 and 0.7 GAI is not bad: .22 up to 12z not counting nuisance .01 before that, with sfc 0.9 and 0.4 Considering the Euro has been running warmer at the sfc by a bit, its not too bad. FDK .24 with 2m's .7 and at freezing respectively for 6z and 12z. IAD .25 with 1.0 and 0.5 BWI .18 with 1.5 and 1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 posted already but it's like .25" from the potomac and southwest, lighter northeast thru 12z. 32 line makes about the blue ridge on panels. Ok, missed that. Although the synoptic evolution is different between now and March 6th, end result sounds similar. Coating-2" (for the cities and nearby 'burbs) on the grass before dawn and then hours of RASN until it shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 .21 for DCA up to 12z, sfc temps 1.1 and 0.7 GAI is not bad: .22 up to 12z not counting nuisance .01 before that, with sfc 0.9 and 0.4 Considering the Euro has been running warmer at the sfc by a bit, its not too bad. not all of that will be accum snow tho, particularly near 95 where it's going to start as rain or rain mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 not all of that will be accum snow tho, particularly near 95 where it's going to start as rain or rain mix. Oh I know, should start as rain for an hour or two, using up .05ish maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Oh I know, should start as rain for an hour or two, using up .05ish maybe. think even at night around here we probably need good rates. 34 and periods of mod snow did very little on mar 6. the areas that really cashed in with that first stuff to the south were getting 30-40dbz snows for like 2+ hours. i'd give myself higher odds of a dusting than 1" at this pt probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 .21 for DCA up to 12z, sfc temps 1.1 and 0.7 GAI is not bad: .22 up to 12z not counting nuisance .01 before that, with sfc 0.9 and 0.4 Considering the Euro has been running warmer at the sfc by a bit, its not too bad. Anything <=1C on the Euro probably verifies near 32F. If the Euro shows 2C, then we're almost certainly sunk on accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 think even at night around here we probably need good rates. 34 and periods of mod snow did very little on mar 6. the areas that really cashed in with that first stuff to the south were getting 30-40dbz snows for like 2+ hours. i'd give myself higher odds of a dusting than 1" at this pt probably. I agree, but I think the Euro will moisten up some on the initial precipitation. The storm could be pretty juiced in my opinion, so a slight increase on 0z ECM with regards to QPF numbers could occur. Anything <=1C on the Euro probably verifies near 32F. If the Euro shows 2C, then we're almost certainly sunk on accumulations. Yes, the 1C too warm Euro rule has always been something I've taken as a rule of thumb, not just because of 3/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 .21 for DCA up to 12z, sfc temps 1.1 and 0.7 GAI is not bad: .22 up to 12z not counting nuisance .01 before that, with sfc 0.9 and 0.4 Considering the Euro has been running warmer at the sfc by a bit, its not too bad. FDK .24 with 2m's .7 and at freezing respectively for 6z and 12z. IAD .25 with 1.0 and 0.5 BWI .18 with 1.5 and 1.0 Euro sounds more like the seasonal trend here. Less precip and warmer. Will verify my forecast of drizzle and clouds. I'm sure some dude in western VA will report 8 inches before I even see my first drop of rain and he'll still be snowing when my drizzle shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I agree, but I think the Euro will moisten up some on the initial precipitation. The storm could be pretty juiced in my opinion, so a slight increase on 0z ECM with regards to QPF numbers could occur. We'll see. Euro has been pretty consistent on the front end and looks like what we've come to expect of recent. The RAP might turn it into a 1" liquid snow bomb tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 We'll see. Euro has been pretty consistent on the front end and looks like what we've come to expect of recent. The RAP might turn it into a 1" liquid snow bomb tho. I'm not a big fan of the RAP really, it is usually too wet, and lately it has been especially. Usually does okay with the shutoff of precip however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro has said no to us all winter. It laugh's at the other models that show inch of qpf Maybe it's wrong tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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