March 25th Storm: Debacle or Climo Defier? Discussion and Obs

[DDweatherman]

I am guessing weenies forecasting snow are bitter cause they havent gotten any this winter?

No, I think he means those are saying no snow is coming for a number of reasons. 

[MDstorm]

Here's the GGEM for you folks 

 

 

And the RGEM too through 48 (more to come obviously), will give you guys a nice close view

Nice pics.  What are you thoughts at this point, UVV?

 

MDstorm

[stormtracker]

What does that even mean?

Hos isn't off to an auspicious start here.

 

But I think I know what he's saying.  He's saying you all are being way too pessimistic about our snow chances due to PTSD from the last debacle.   I'd side more with your thinking than his.  And climo kinda leans your way.

[Ian]

you're getting to him

 

i know im not fun.. sorry. but honestly the snow maps are garbage and the post 12z period is going to be near impossible to do much for most of us even tho the snow maps keep piling it up thru the day.  even if the snow maps have the right idea they need to be chopped in like half or so probably. they were too high across the board with the early mo sys even in places they verified.

[stormtracker]

The Euro will come in and be much more reasonable and in all likelihood, that's going to be our final solution.   I really want these snowy models to be right..but once you step back and think about it, even with all of our weenie snow bias, reality comes rushing in.   We're not getting heavy snow accums during the day in late March.   Nobody within 30 miles of the 95 corridor should realistically expect more than 2", best case scenario.

[WinterWxLuvr]

What does that even mean?

Do you really want to encourage a reply?

[stormtracker]

i know im not fun.. sorry. but honestly the snow maps are garbage and the post 12z period is going to be near impossible to do much for most of us even tho the snow maps keep piling it up thru the day.  even if the snow maps have the right idea they need to be chopped in like half or so probably. they were too high across the board with the early mo sys even in places they verified.

 

Even that's too high IMO.    I'm hoping against hope that we pull out some sort of miracle and defy the odds. 

[Ian]

Even that's too high IMO. I'm hoping against hope that we pull out some sort of miracle and defy the odds.

Yeah probably. I mean anything post 12z I would redact around us at least.

[wxdude64]

i know im not fun.. sorry. but honestly the snow maps are garbage and the post 12z period is going to be near impossible to do much for most of us even tho the snow maps keep piling it up thru the day.  even if the snow maps have the right idea they need to be chopped in like half or so probably. they were too high across the board with the early mo sys even in places they verified.

Agree with this, maybe even 1/4 it if the ground doesn't have an inch or so on it before daylight.

[WinterWxLuvr]

i know im not fun.. sorry. but honestly the snow maps are garbage and the post 12z period is going to be near impossible to do much for most of us even tho the snow maps keep piling it up thru the day. even if the snow maps have the right idea they need to be chopped in like half or so probably. they were too high across the board with the early mo sys even in places they verified.

You are realistic. I'd be hung on a big event if the Euro would even hint at the possibility. I need it to be much wetter before I do any weenie dancing. Right now I'd stick with my 2-4, 1-2 call from earlier. At least at this point in the daily model run cycle there's no reason to lower expectations. I guess that is a win itself.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2:15 or so....time of death or birth?

[mitchnick]

ok SV subscribers, how far out is the Euro?

[stormtracker]

You are realistic. I'd be hung on a big event if the Euro would even hint at the possibility. I need it to be much wetter before I do any weenie dancing. Right now I'd stick with my 2-4, 1-2 call from earlier. At least at this point in the daily model run cycle there's no reason to lower expectations. I guess that is a win itself.

If the Euro came out like the GFS/GGEM, I'd seriously go all in....with reservations   But it's not named Dr. No for nothing.

[Ian]

ok SV subscribers, how far out is the Euro?

30/18z sun

 

waa looks a little better than 0z but it's early still

[mitchnick]

Day 1 Euro

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h24&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

[Ian]

coastal looks to be going quicker at 36.. low to west a bit south

[DDweatherman]

Nice pics.  What are you thoughts at this point, UVV?

 

MDstorm

Well MD, the writing is not on the wall like some have said. There are positive trends that I can shed light on, i.e. an earlier and cleaner transfer, and the improvement on a 2 part system+dryslot. Now it looks as though precipitation will not completely shut off, and we will be in only a relative "lull" with light to moderate precip between the primary and coastal low effects. Rates could be awfully heavy(with the coastal), and I prefer the west to east moving CCB on the backside of the low which benefits a number of those in our area as the swath of snow will be more uniform. 

 

In that respect, this system already looks better than 3/6 on paper. I do think surface temperatures will be a smidge better, but as Ian said, to a significant degree most likely not. However, every degree counts, especially at this stage, and there will dynamic cooling through some dew point depression on the soundings. 

 

In layman's terms, its still March 25/26 and climo argues for nothing to write home about. However, these types of events typically move the precip in slightly earlier than progged, so we can blanket N VA over to Baltimore and back up to HGR with 1-2" before 12z and maybe even 9z. Depending on rates, an additional 1-2" could be found for DC and areas west of the bay, but just west of Baltimore could be the middle ground with good rates from the coastal but not on the bay shore. 2-4" for them looks suitable, 3-6" for CHO and co. 

 

I'll have my final thoughts tonight if you're around.

[mitchnick]

coastal looks to be going quicker at 36.. low to west a bit south

good!

that's what all the 12z models have been showing

[DDweatherman]

Euro looks improved with regards to the transfer and the initial precipitation batch. Temperatures could get the job done, though certainly can't make a call like that until I see more data and the text/soundings. At that point, they were decent, though its somewhat warm post 36. 

[Ian]

seems unimportant whatever was happening at 36 by 42.. coastal strung out again, some light precip up into dc by that panel. snow accum odds still sw at 6z mon.

[Ian]

still get .1"+ liquid in that 6z to 12z timeframe across n va and most of the rest of the area up into md, maybe minor accum into the area

[Ian]

32 line at 12z is about BR and west then down spine of apps and up into s pa

[mitchnick]

still get .1"+ liquid in that 6z to 12z timeframe across n va and most of the rest of the area up into md, maybe minor accum into the area

that could be .1" or .24"

[DDweatherman]

seems unimportant whatever was happening at 36 by 42.. coastal strung out again, some light precip up into dc by that panel. snow accum odds still sw at 6z mon.

I've got to say, the way it strings out the coastal is unlikely if it is more efficient in the transfer which it is to some extent. The precipitation should be a bit heavier with that piece, though the model perturbation is what it is. 

[mitchnick]

32 line at 12z is about BR and west then down spine of apps and up into s pa

that won't do it needless to say

[Ian]

.25" line runs along potomac thru 12z.. fills in a bit more thru 18z tho most under .5

[mitchnick]

ok, this map on Plymouth is crewed up for the 48 hr 5H map, but that v ort is in a good position on the Euro

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

[Ian]

looks like everyone ends up somewhere near .5" total.. precip continues till probably late afternoon as low pulls off to the east

[olafminesaw]

Temps?

[HighStakes]

Well MD, the writing is not on the wall like some have said. There are positive trends that I can shed light on, i.e. an earlier and cleaner transfer, and the improvement on a 2 part system+dryslot. Now it looks as though precipitation will not completely shut off, and we will be in only a relative "lull" with light to moderate precip between the primary and coastal low effects. Rates could be awfully heavy(with the coastal), and I prefer the west to east moving CCB on the backside of the low which benefits a number of those in our area as the swath of snow will be more uniform. 

 

In that respect, this system already looks better than 3/6 on paper. I do think surface temperatures will be a smidge better, but as Ian said, to a significant degree most likely not. However, every degree counts, especially at this stage, and there will dynamic cooling through some dew point depression on the soundings. 

 

In layman's terms, its still March 25/26 and climo argues for nothing to write home about. However, these types of events typically move the precip in slightly earlier than progged, so we can blanket N VA over to Baltimore and back up to HGR with 1-2" before 12z and maybe even 9z. Depending on rates, an additional 1-2" could be found for DC and areas west of the bay, but just west of Baltimore could be the middle ground with good rates from the coastal but not on the bay shore. 2-4" for them looks suitable, 3-6" for CHO and co. 

 

I'll have my final thoughts tonight if you're around.

Seems reasonable. For this time of the year a 3-6 type event is very significant for anyone in the entire region. Still don't understand the tone of some here dismissing any accumulating snow this late in the season especially if they are a true snow lover. I guess I'm impressed more easily than others.