Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 For DC, this looks to be the biggest snow of the winter season! Wait, that's not saying much, is it? MDstorm It's also been said at this range like 10 times now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I didn't call your comment silly I meant it was silly for either of us to try to prove something that didn't happen either way. Today is going to be 55, tomorrow near 50. The air mass is perhaps a touch better but it's still stale cold air. Storm...making..its...own..cold...air. Do I have to pull out the weenie handbook for you? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 A large pool of cold air has been displaced to central and se Canada because of the ridiculous -ao. Is it arctic cold? No, but it's cold enough to give us highs in the low 30's during the last week of march. This setup on march 6 would have been subfreezing and accum snow for all. Now it's almost 3 weeks later. Just be realistic. We need lots and lots of qpf in a relatively short period of time and the grass might get covered. I'm down with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It's the waa that keeps the surface from becoming a radiation magnet after sunrise. It's a very big deal. It's also the only thing that has a good chance at sticking. Daytime comma stuff would be great to see but unless there is already snow on the ground, mod snow won't stick. I have different reasons for wanting this snow, and amounts aren't a part of it really, but if thats your thinking, then I'd be dissapointed in even what the NAM shows. WAA dries up majorly when it gets here compared to what it is in SW VA. Also, if we go back to the March 6 storm, even areas that got good WAA and had several inches stopped accumulating and eventually switched to rain during the day. We need either a more defined banding structure or the crazy broken banding that was going on near RIC to get any significant accumulation out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 If it were 1 to 2 degrees different on 3/6, we would have had a record March snowstorm. Exactly. Well, maybe 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 if we can get temps to cooperate, regardless of the models, we might get our well deserved 2" and the he!! w/everyone else on this Board this is our last shot for 9 months; time for regional bias to trump any semblance of decency to others We will have a shot in less than 9 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I have different reasons for wanting this snow, and amounts aren't a part of it really, but if thats your thinking, then I'd be dissapointed in even what the NAM shows. WAA dries up majorly when it gets here compared to what it is in SW VA. Also, if we go back to the March 6 storm, even areas that got good WAA and had several inches stopped accumulating and eventually switched to rain during the day. We need either a more defined banding structure or the crazy broken banding that was going on near RIC to get any significant accumulation out of this. The WAA snow I received made up the initial 4 inches at my home thru about 7am, then scratched out another 1 inch to peak at 5 by 9:30 or so when it started to melt from the ground-up. It snowed all day until about 4pm then rained for 2 hours and done. left about 3.5 of slop. If we can get an inch or 2 base by daylight, a heavy snow during the daytime hours can only maintain or slightly elevate those totals if surface temps are in the low 30's. Heck, I was in Green Bay last week and it was in the high 20's and snowed all day pretty hard and did not stick a lick due to the sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 UKIE at 42 is 994 in N KY... transfers quickly at 48 to a 995 L just NE of HSE,,, slowly deepens to 985 as it moves slowly to the ENE at 60 to about 400 miles east of ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 UKIE at 42 is 994 in N KY... transfers quickly at 48 to a 995 L just NE of HSE,,, slowly deepens to 985 as it moves slowly to the ENE at 60 to about 400 miles east of ACY you're turning me on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 UKMET is 17mm or so for DCA... but it keeps the temp around 32 all day Monday h5 looks excellent at 42 and 48 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'm willing to try believe a lot but not that we'll (DCA) be near freezing all day on Monday. Maybe I'm just totally lost in climo but it seems extraordinarily unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'm willing to try believe a lot but not that we'll (DCA) be near freezing all day on Monday. Maybe I'm just totally lost in climo but it seems extraordinarily unlikely. Maybe if the storm deepened a little faster we could get in on the blue graphics like South jersey does. I'm looking for 2-4 inches in Gainesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'm willing to try believe a lot but not that we'll (DCA) be near freezing all day on Monday. Maybe I'm just totally lost in climo but it seems extraordinarily unlikely. I agree.. but UKIE has been insistent on this the past few runs. Not sure how well it did with 3/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'm willing to try believe a lot but not that we'll (DCA) be near freezing all day on Monday. Maybe I'm just totally lost in climo but it seems extraordinarily unlikely. More unlikely than DCA going over 2 years without measuring 2" of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I agree.. but UKIE has been insistent on this the past few runs. Not sure how well it did with 3/6 Even the cold NAM and GFS get us to 41 and 42 via MOS. This might be a situation where MOS is a bit high but probably not more than 2-4 degrees. GFS only gets DCA down to 37 via MOS for the low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Record min max is 33 at DCA. We won't be able to break it. Should warm in the afternoon like on 3/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 More unlikely than DCA going over 2 years without measuring 2" of snow? that fits in with our recent climo a lot more than a -25+ during the day. i mean, we did just have a day with afternoon temps in the u 30s but that was fresh air. we could in theory match that i guess with precip. i'd not run any lower during the day personally. and the bottom line is even 32 during the day won't do a ton unless we're getting sn+. you have to almost entirely focus on the pre 12z timeframe no matter what probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I hate the American model bashing but I have really low faith in these recent runs. Unless the Euro blips back hard not to just ride it home at this pt. The good news there is it still tries to bring some sort of mini thump thru before 12z so we might be able to pull of an inch or so even into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GGEM is hilarious and ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 that fits in with our recent climo a lot more than a -25+ during the day. i mean, we did just have a day with afternoon temps in the u 30s but that was fresh air. we could in theory match that i guess with precip. i'd not run any lower during the day personally. and the bottom line is even 32 during the day won't do a ton unless we're getting sn+. you have to almost entirely focus on the pre 12z timeframe no matter what probably. Yeah, I think the notion of a daytime snowstorm in the cities is fantasy. Best bet is a thump overnight and then just clouds during the day. Enjoy whatever falls because it will be gone by sundown. Personally, I think anyone within 25 miles of the cities is kidding themselves on this one. It screams "nothing of interest" to me. We had our shot March 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GGEM/CMC has the same track as the GFS with similar if not a bit wetter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GGEM/CMC has the same track as the GFS with similar if not a bit wetter precip. GGEM is about 25mm give or take a mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 What would this be, Winter Storm Uvula? What letter are they on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Here's the GGEM for you folks And the RGEM too through 48 (more to come obviously), will give you guys a nice close view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yeah, I think the notion of a daytime snowstorm in the cities is fantasy. Best bet is a thump overnight and then just clouds during the day. Enjoy whatever falls because it will be gone by sundown. Personally, I think anyone within 25 miles of the cities is kidding themselves on this one. It screams "nothing of interest" to me. We had our shot March 6th. im not going to get excited until it's piling up this go. i'll take the bust if needed.. down with the ship. 1" or so would be a huge success imby... it could happen. i got about 1.25" with the crap storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The weenie bittercasting is crazy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Here's the GGEM for you folks And the RGEM too through 48 (more to come obviously), will give you guys a nice close view That's 12-14" IMBY. There's no way, but if it does happen, that would destroy trees and powerlines around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The weenie bittercasting is crazy here. What does that even mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 What does that even mean? you're getting to him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 What does that even mean? I am guessing weenies forecasting snow are bitter cause they havent gotten any this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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