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March 25th Storm: Debacle or Climo Defier? Discussion and Obs


stormtracker

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this storm is not a bust yet despite what ians saying. I didnt realize we were supposed to have 3 inches by now. The blue qpf was always forecasted to be way south of us Sunday afternoon

I didn't say it was a bust. Some folks mentioned total qpf incessantly like it mattered overall. I never expected anything by now. My low expectations were consistently in that post midnight to near sunrise timeframe.

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SW flow across TN/KY running up against flow across VA/WV/OH has led to an area of low level frontogenisis. The resulting strong forcing has created, and should for the most part maintain, that area of heavy precipitation with embedded convection.   It looks move into colder air over OH, WV, and possibly extreme western/southwestern VA. This band could drop several inches with even some lightning producing convection.

 

post-2030-0-46926900-1364168646_thumb.jp

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DT woofing in regards to new SREF data. He's saying he's upping his totals for DCA and BALT! Says we can get hammered tonight and Monday.

 

With how awful he has been this year (and then claims he was right when he is wrong), everyone from DC/BWI east should lower their expectations to at least half of what he says.

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idk if it matters but the precip in KY has a much more N/S orientation than the NAM said it would

 

it's sitting on the low which is headed northeast and the 500 flow is still a bit pos tilted almost neg for the time being. it's the same general area of lift for us but you prob want to look at the southern (less impressive currently) end east of the wv/va border at least.  most of it should look like it forms to the lee of the mtns as the other stuff might die out in passage anyway.

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It was clear that the first band was going to go south of DC area-- skim it at best. When the coastal gets energized by the ULL, DC gets something. I'm not sure how much. 

 

At 13.8 on the year. Our climo USE to be  18-21. I'm sure the 1980-2010 is a smidge lower. If we pull 3 over night (Very doubtful) we'd be at climo 

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