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March 25th Storm: Debacle or Climo Defier? Discussion and Obs


stormtracker

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RIC disagrees

 

yea but you gotta be at the right place at the right time with these things.  too complicated of a setup for a broad area of accumulating snow, at least for this first part.  i still like the way it feels outside. the airmass is there, we just need things to be better organized.  i think that happens tomorrow morning.

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the low is still well to our west and isn't supposed to pass by us until tonight. 

 

yes, my point is that nice break in between part 1 and part 2.  note i didn't say storm cancel, i'm just not impressed with this first part for my neck of the woods.

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yea but you gotta be at the right place at the right time with these things.  too complicated of a setup for a broad area of accumulating snow, at least for this first part.  i still like the way it feels outside. the airmass is there, we just need things to be better organized.  i think that happens tomorrow morning.

 

it's going exactly as modeled though. This batch was supposed to hit south of us and it did. It was never supposed to do more than graze us and that's exactly what it's doing. The only surprise is that there was more snow than rain. 

 

Our shot comes later. Much later. 12 hours from now or so. 

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RIC disagrees

 

the 500 low passage is not as good (at least for dc area) as some people think, it's still too far north. if it wasn't a huge closed low and we just had the 500 vortmax maybe better.  sw va/nw ric is sorta lucking out from a front running vort running into the cold air in wait. the main 500 low is still way west.

 

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it's going exactly as modeled though. This batch was supposed to hit south of us and it did. It was never supposed to do more than graze us and that's exactly what it's doing. The only surprise is that there was more snow than rain. 

 

Our shot comes later. Much later. 12 hours from now or so. 

 

i'm not disagreeing.  i'm seeing it that way as well.  we're on the same page, man!

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Congrats to everyone! Good late season snow. Heading to Baltimore now from Boston. Hoping I drive into snow as my eta is 9pm.

Not totally well read into the situation as others. I would not be quick to forecast over a coating for either dca or BWI. East winds in the BL late season in lower urban elevations.

The good snow down south might seem encouraging but there will be complications with the transfer of energy to the secondary. As things become more organized the focus would likely refocus precip and by then the torch should be on east of foothills/mountains. If you aren't already cashing in on snow like many are I wouldn't feel too confident.

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Congrats to everyone! Good late season snow. Heading to Baltimore now from Boston. Hoping I drive into snow as my eta is 9pm.

Not totally well read into the situation as others. I would not be quick to forecast over a coating for either dca or BWI. East winds in the BL late season in lower urban elevations.

The good snow down south might seem encouraging but there will be complications with the transfer of energy to the secondary. As things become more organized the focus would likely refocus precip and by then the torch should be on east of foothills/mountains. If you aren't already cashing in on snow like many are I wouldn't feel too confident.

I wouldn't call it a torch, there is an opportunity later tonight for some precip that could lay down a few inches up 95 if rates cooperate. 

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the 500 low passage is not as good (at least for dc area) as some people think, it's still too far north. if it wasn't a huge closed low and we just had the 500 vortmax maybe better.  sw va/nw ric is sorta lucking out from a front running vort running into the cold air in wait. the main 500 low is still way west.

 

attachicon.gifnam_namer_003_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

It's too far north and too far south. Both EFZ and AOO will do better. DCA is the Miller B screw zone. 

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no worries. Your op sounded like you thought it wasn't going as planned and was already busting. 

 

nah, but i do have some concerns over where the banding sets up for part 2.  i'd like to see that low to the west be a little further south.  part of me could see us only getting a few hours of good rates, which could be enough to break the streak, who knows.  we shall see.

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The 1-3 call looks good.

 

 

Hah, thanks. You know, all the models showed more-- but I've been burned all year. 

 

I've got the second round. I'm thinking 1-2. Can it overperform? 

 

FYI-- our soundings down here were isothermal from 700mb down. Would you have gone 4-6 for LYH at about 800ft or so? That's a bold call. and, model qpf all over the place...

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DT woofing in regards to new SREF data. He's saying he's upping his totals for DCA and BALT! Says we can get hammered tonight and Monday.

 

lol

 

hopefully he looked at them mar 6 :-/

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