mitchnick Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 best gfs run yet for bwi i think. I've pulled so much text data that I could be wrong but this is the best I remember MON 00Z 25-MAR 2.9 -4.2 1007 74 97 0.08 546 540 MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.1 -3.3 1003 96 99 0.12 542 539 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.8 -4.2 999 96 98 0.29 537 538 MON 18Z 25-MAR 0.9 -4.7 999 100 99 0.38 533 534 thanks yeah, that looks like the best I've seen too I just wish I hadn't seen it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 lol this run gives dc like a foot of clown map snow Part of you wants to believe. I can tell. The inner weenie in you is fighting. You're doing a good job with the the rational side dominating...but more model runs like this and you will be fully possessed. I want to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 lol no we wouldnt Yeah, I think we would have. whole column 2 degrees colder. Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Part of you wants to believe. I can tell. The inner weenie in you is fighting. You're doing a good job with the the rational side dominating...but more model runs like this and you will be fully possessed. I want to believe i just want this wretched winter to end. even if i got 6" it would still be a wretched winter that needs to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 thanks yeah, that looks like the best I've seen too I just wish I hadn't seen it It all goes downhill from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 i just want this wretched winter to end. even if i got 6" it would still be a wretched winter that needs to end. Same. But the 6" would be an excellent consolation prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yeah, I think we would have. whole column 2 degrees colder. Yeah. silly argument.. no way either of us could prove something that didn't happen. but we got no meaningful precip this far north till during the day and it was in the mid-30s to near 40 for most of it.. so you do the math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 silly argument.. no way either of us could prove something that didn't happen. but we got no meaningful precip this far north till during the day and it was in the mid-30s to near 40 for most of it.. so you do the math. dude, you're in Washington, D.C., have you forgotten what goes on down the street? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 silly argument.. no way either of us could prove something that didn't happen. but we got no meaningful precip this far north till during the day and it was in the mid-30s to near 40 for most of it.. so you do the math. Yup, I don't think a cooler air mass would have helped. Here in Potomac, we had temperatures hovering around freezing, but the dreaded sun angle ruined the snow totals for us. I think the only way we could have gotten even a moderate snow storm was with heavy precipitation, and, again, it was too dry up here until too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 We still need to settle whether or not the RGEM is any good. Some mets say yes...some weenies say no. We need a definitive call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 silly argument.. no way either of us could prove something that didn't happen. but we got no meaningful precip this far north till during the day and it was in the mid-30s to near 40 for most of it.. so you do the math. I'm not going to call your rebuttal silly. We'll agree to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 lol no we wouldnt Perhaps not DC, but I was threatening to accumulate here in Colesville, MD for a long time that day. I think a 2 degrees colder would have made a big difference. Maybe not historic - but I think I could have had a blanket of snow. Perhaps a few more degrees maybe - but I was kind of close for a good part of the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I gotta be honest....if the euro juices up too then I'll be forced to bump my 1-3 call to 1.5-3.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Perhaps not DC, but I was threatening to accumulate here in Colesville, MD for a long time that day. I think a 2 degrees colder would have made a big difference. Maybe not historic - but I think I could have had a blanket of snow. Perhaps a few more degrees maybe - but I was kind of close for a good part of the morning. I was at 33 until 2pm. 2 degrees lower and I would have had 5-6 instead of 2-3 that shrank every time it snowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I gotta be honest....if the euro juices up too then I'll be forced to bump my 1-3 call to 1.5-3.5. I will go with persistence and forecast drizzle and broken clouds for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I gotta be honest....if the euro juices up too then I'll be forced to bump my 1-3 call to 1.5-3.5. heck, all you have to do is to get BLIZ to do your measuring for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I will go with persistence and forecast drizzle and broken clouds for MBY. Reasonable call too. I'm kinda believing now though. The transfer seems to be nearly locked in and it's optimal. Were benefiting from the more w-e trajectory vs the more s-n we typically see with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 We still need to settle whether or not the RGEM is any good. Some mets say yes...some weenies say no. We need a definitive call. Snow and 33 degrees with decent rates. Is your glass half empty or half full? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I will go with persistence and forecast drizzle and broken clouds for MBY. if we can get temps to cooperate, regardless of the models, we might get our well deserved 2" and the he!! w/everyone else on this Board this is our last shot for 9 months; time for regional bias to trump any semblance of decency to others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 *snip of coolwx DCA nam image* Cut it in half then take in to effect crappy near surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I don't think 2 degrees would've mattered for DC on Mar 6, but it sure would've out here. I had a HEAVY 10 inches at 9AM when the snow stopped accumulating. Doubt the ratios were any better than 6 or 7:1. 2 degrees colder and more of the initial snow would've stuck and maybe the ratios get to 10:1, so I'd have been looking at at least 13 - 14 inches. That's not counting the hours of light/moderate snow that fell - but melted - after 9AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'm glad to see things trending away from this being a 2 part mess. Much more consolidation and we are on our way to a decent long duration event. I think people not buying the coastal and focussing on the night time WAA are missing the majority of what this storm is. To me the WAA is almost no big deal. If the transfer happens too late or too far north, we are screwed, but get it 50 miles away from March 6, and we're in business. I think top end accumulations in non elevation areas who have the QPF bullseye could be in the 4-6 range, very much like what Midlothian and W. Richmond saw during March 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Snow and 33 degrees with decent rates. Is your glass half empty or half full? I was talking the model itself...not this solution, lol. I'd take this run in a heartbeat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I was talking the model itself...not this solution, lol. I'd take this run in a heartbeat! radio show LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 if we can get temps to cooperate, regardless of the models, we might get our well deserved 2" and the he!! w/everyone else on this Board this is our last shot for 9 months; time for regional bias to trump any semblance of decency to others We'll see. We've been playing this same game for months. The precip has just never gotten here when it needed too. I'm sure a SNE met will show up shortly and tell me to prepare for epic banding. I won't be buying in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I was talking the model itself...not this solution, lol. I'd take this run in a heartbeat! Tounge in cheek.. got it. But actually if you are a glass half empty person you could argue for a sfc temp debacle east of the fall line including DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'm glad to see things trending away from this being a 2 part mess. Much more consolidation and we are on our way to a decent long duration event. I think people not buying the coastal and focussing on the night time WAA are missing the majority of what this storm is. To me the WAA is almost no big deal. If the transfer happens too late or too far north, we are screwed, but get it 50 miles away from March 6, and we're in business. I think top end accumulations in non elevation areas who have the QPF bullseye could be in the 4-6 range, very much like what Midlothian and W. Richmond saw during March 6. It's the waa that keeps the surface from becoming a radiation magnet after sunrise. It's a very big deal. It's also the only thing that has a good chance at sticking. Daytime comma stuff would be great to see but unless there is already snow on the ground, mod snow won't stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'm not going to call your rebuttal silly. We'll agree to disagree.I didn't call your comment silly I meant it was silly for either of us to try to prove something that didn't happen either way.Today is going to be 55, tomorrow near 50. The air mass is perhaps a touch better but it's still stale cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 For DC, this looks to be the biggest snow of the winter season! Wait, that's not saying much, is it? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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