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March 25th Storm: Debacle or Climo Defier? Discussion and Obs


stormtracker

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Looking over traffic cameras, I-81 is completely covered north of Roanoke.  Very low visibility.  Pretty impressive considering temperatures are above freezing and it's a late March afternoon.

 

heavy snow wins in marginal situations

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This makes no sense to me here is my forecast:

 

Tonight Rain and snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 33. Light east wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

  • Monday Snow before 9am, then rain and snow. High near 36. North wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • Monday Night Rain and snow likely, mainly before 7pm. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Northwest wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

And here is the Brooklyn , NY forecast. They are warmer than me and the models look nowhere near as good as they do down here yet they are under a WWA advisory for 2-3".

 

 

 

 

Tonight A chance of snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

  • Monday Snow, mainly after 9am. High near 39. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
  • Monday Night Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 33. Breezy, with a north wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

It has to be that Sterling is afraid because of 3/6.

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still mainly lacking rates of consequence around here for any period until 9-12z and then its mainly ne md and ne. don't really care if we get 1" liquid if it falls over 24 hours.

 

.25ish in 3 hrs is sorta my benchmark for accum, and it probably more or less matches those places getting good stuff now. 

 

post-1615-0-64862300-1364155422_thumb.gi

 

im hoping at like 4am i have a dusting and not wet ground.. might help with any burst.

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still mainly lacking rates of consequence around here for any period until 9-12z and then its mainly ne md and ne. don't really care if we get 1" liquid if it falls over 24 hours.

 

.25ish in 3 hrs is sorta my benchmark for accum, and it probably more or less matches those places getting good stuff now. 

 

attachicon.gifnam_namer_003_precip_p03.gif

 

im hoping at like 4am i have a dusting and not wet ground.. might help with any burst.

18z the 5H is overhead

we may be able to squeeze out some sort of surprise/bonus with that cold pool

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_024_500_vort_ht.gif

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